This board has got the worst reputation for calling crashes. 99 out of 100 times, it's wrong - 1% odds. It's so bad, that it's like a weatherman calling a snowstorm in the middle of a warm sunny summer day. Yes, the 1% odds will also come true someday.
Crashes happen when nobody forecasts it, nobody expects it. Just like what happened to the Swiss Franc couple of weeks back. I have learn't over the years, these crash calls have no basis in TA or FA, but are mere emotional outbursts when traders sense uncertainty and fear.
Price declines brings out the primal fears in humans. Fear starts manifesting in various ways. Remember the Ebola scare on this board when we were making the Oct lows. The scare becomes so intense that even the die hard bulls disappear. When the markets recovers and starts making new recovery highs, the fear dissipate, the bears hide in shame and the bulls come out of the woodwork. Seen this play out over and over again.
But who wins in all this madness ? - Somebody who can hold their head above shoulders, ignore all the noise, pull the trigger and have their stops in place. It's easy to get scared. That's what separates the men from the boys.
Great post!!