Thx for the charts/data Roger.
BTW - what the 'experts' are not getting ..because. they aren't actually experts but shills is that
- When bonds sell off ..money is coming OUT of bonds ...where does it go? ..in my research almost 100% of time into STOCKS .
Thus normally the market does NOT PEAK until AFTER bonds finished selling off ...driven up by liquidity from bonds.
NOT this time as I predicted in early 2022 - why? ,.. I predicted this wouldn't happen for two reason
1. Foreign selling of bonds and repatriation AND
2. What I call 'Liquidity Repricing' - because I knew FED would have to do QT, thus some of rise in rates isn't providing liquidity just removing assets from FED ledger, and also because it removes
the artificial up pricing on stock market due to that FED provided LQ.
MOST of the DOWN CYCLE in STOCKS occurs AFTER bonds peak - we aren't even there yet, and TNX looks in strong upward pattern to retest highs as i've said, and even possibly new highs oh MY!
So we are still getting some LQ support from Bonds - not as much as historical data mining would expect - but once bonds do finally turn and get a bid, maybe this summer, it will remove even more LQ from stocks
and that's when I see risk of bigger down legs.
* in 1981 case TNX peak was coincident with the August peak into 1st big down leg - and stock then took year to find the low, this is typical of the cycle
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzk4MDA1M18yMTEwNDgwMQ
Edited by EntropyModel, 08 March 2023 - 02:10 PM.
Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data.
I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'.
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