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SPX thoughts

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#331 tsharp



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Posted 30 April 2018 - 03:49 PM

On my insta account, I posited over the weekend that it seemed the upward move of late last week was a c-wave and it would soon peak, to resume the IT downtrend... that appears to have come to fruition and I suspect price will soon be at or below the UTL before a substantial bounce materializes... but as always... time will tell.




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/5ujwhy6d5/

#332 tsharp



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Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:50 PM

No change in my thoughts on the SPX... though I note that the pinkish UTL has been hit four previous times but today it was closed below, so it appears the next lower orange-ish UTL is the next target... time will tell.




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/nqibwoyjt/

#333 tsharp



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Posted 05 May 2018 - 01:33 PM

With the rally on Thursday and into Friday's close, I had to reconsider the the SPX was taking an alternate road map in this correction, and that a contracting triangle is what will actually play out at this point.  It is interesting to note that the low for wave-e is 2594.62, and my first target for the corrective low was 2591.67; this also is a consideration in my change of fractal count.


In the hourly SPX chart, you will notice the momentum indicator line rallied up to the green TL, then paused.  There may be a pullback on Monday, but I suspect wave-e:iv may be complete at this time... if not, then wave-b:e:iv is complete and there is one final leg down (wave-c) to complete... then the correction is complete and the march back upward to new ATHs will commence.  WIth fractal theory, there are always alternate counts, but for now, this becomes my favored count until it's invalidated.




Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/oka3gt0ft/


Looking at the daily charts, both the fast and slow momentum charts appear to be in a position that they could simply rise from here... we shall see!




Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/7jr785i9l/




Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/aducljfa1/


Regarding the SPX weekly fast and slow momentum charts, they're both still in a definitely LT bullish configuration and could simply push back upward from where they are.




Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/l9h53bill/




Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/wltql3bux/


Moving on the the monthly charts... I put in the SPX monthy ATR with a fast momentum indicator line; I think I've posted it a time or two in the past... it shows the indicator line still clearly in a bullish configuration, but please note that it has not even been able to break through the DTL from its ATH going back over twenty years, but has twice respected it and turned away... this rally appears to be on borrowed time.  Note also the ATR is still sitting at ~2633 on a closing basis for the month of May... I do not see it being elected this month.




Link to SPX monthly fast momentum chart with ATR:  https://postimg.cc/image/l0o5qxkuh/


Finally, and last, but not least, an update on my SPX projection chart from 4.9.16... I suppose it seems fitting that a bullish pennant formation at about the halfway point is the set-up for the next phase of this bull market run that I think will take the SPX upward to the ~3600 range... but as always... time will tell!




Link to SPX EW projection chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/c1owmlgo9/

#334 tsharp



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Posted 13 May 2018 - 11:34 AM

From my post on FF earlier this weekend...


The hourly SPX chart seems to clearly state the intent of the US markets...


A fractal wave pattern particular to the wave-iv position - a (3-3-3-3-3) contracting triangle...


Completion of the wave-e:iv within three SPX points of my first target published on 3.11.18 - ~2592 V ~2595...


Coming up through the green DTL on the indicator chart, back-testing it, then launching upward from there...


And last, but not least, the price gapping upward through through the DTL of the upper triangle channel...


IMHO, all this points to the wave-iv completion and the commencing of wave-v, with an upward target of ~3600, basis the SPX... as always... time will tell.




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/lr7qswiex/


FWIW, my projection for ~3600 SPX had nothing to do with the contracting triangle... that only settled the wave-iv matter.  My projection for ~3600 was from my fractal road map first published on 4.9.16:




Chart link:  https://postimg.cc/image/h1w1snruh/


Here's the same chart with the overlay as of last Friday:




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/4ahvmbaeh/

#335 tsharp



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Posted 19 May 2018 - 08:09 PM

I'll be starting this week with the RUT 2000... most of the time, the small caps lead the broader market, and with the RUT moving back to new ATHs, it seems to make the case for my wave-iv label in the SPX and that the bull market is still in tact.




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/ajfm5d1rt/


Pivoting now to the SPX... the 60-min chart shows my preferred fractal count at this time.  Last week, I suggested the possibility for two different fractal counts off the wave-e:iv low, and now I am back to only one count, with a smaller wave-i, wave-ii, with wave-ii in progress, in what seems to be a c-wave EDT, with wave-c or wave-d in progress.  I would guess a couple more days of downward bias next week, then back upward in a smaller wave-iii.




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/vt38gapt5/


The SPX daily fast and slow momentum charts show normal behavior relative to where their respect indicator lines presently are.  The fast chart is churning at the zero line and since it's coming from below the zero line, it's most likely to break upward.  The slow momentum chart shows the indicator line coming into the confluence of latent TLs, bouncing off, then coming back into them again... the next time should be a break-through to the upside... time will tell.




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/axgy57tnt/




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/470gvylzd/


The SPX weekly fast chart shows the indicator line also dancing around between latent UTLs, and should soon break upward... and as long as the indicator line remains within the last bubble, the bull market remains in tact.  You'll also note that the slow indicator line is dancing between latent TLs, in a bullish configuration above the +100 line.





Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/wl5wfu1tl/




Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/f7vm0te6h/


Have a great weekend! 


FWIW, I will be posting an update to the GC chart over on the gold thread later on.