711 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

added to short position; now slightly net short, but I don't have high confidence in this short right now. no rush to get much more short; worried about inauguration day advance on euphoria. but, i feel if the market had it in it to go higher here, it should be easy. why is it faltering after 2 days down of three?

[lawdog]

Unbelievably narrow range today. "Don't short a dull market," ? Why shouldn't it be dull? My position is dull, just barely short.

[lawdog]

Objectively, according to some of my trading disciplines, I should not add to my short position; but my gut tells me to short some more on this late strength, so that's what I did. So I am now 43% short versus 20% long, so that is a decently-sized short position.

[lawdog]

Investors intelligence: bulls 60.6; bears 17.3. This is a longer term indicator, no doubt; but it does show perhaps a bit too much optimism; highest bull and lowest bear since Dec. 2015, and we all know what happened at the end of Dec 2015, though the ratio of bulls to bears stayed very high for some time, from I think mid 2014 until the Dec 2015 - Jan 2016 swoon. This is not constructive for the bull case. Markets don't necessarily respond quickly when the bulls and bears reach these levels, but further upside is definitely muted and quick reactions do happen. These numbers are more skewed to the bullish side than in the 07-08 topping process. This makes me much more sanguine about the upside prospects from here but it doesn't significantly affect my trading. Makes me think the way to make money in the market averages this year is to trade and not look for sustained moves in either direction, certainly not like the run we had this year from 1810 or thereabouts to where we are now.

[lawdog]

no change in my thoughts as we start Thursday. Very cautious with shorts; still think there could be a jump at the close today and on inauguration day which may set up for a more aggressive short. long trades in here will be small and quick in and out, if any are made at all. was looking for a quick drop below spx 2250, setting up a run to 2300. now, the trump rally could complete itself tomorrow with an inauguration day rally. however, as i recall in jan. 1981, Reagan's inauguration day action was rather quiet, even with the release of the iran hostages, and with this year having similarities, that inauguration day jump may not occur. in any event, this is not a perfect short yet, so I don't see much urgency to be aggressively short and longs don't have much more than 1%-2% to take out of this current advance. still, i would be very disappointed to be out or short if the run to 2300 happens.

[lawdog]

closed out part of that short i put on yesterday on closing strength in spx for a small but satisfying profit.  with longs and shorts, i am now only net 10% short. no strong conviction yet, but i am encouraged by this early weakness from a slightly positive open. as i wrote last night, the analysis said don't add to the short, but my gut said go for it, and so the gut was correct.

[lawdog]

Sold half of my shorts at a decent profit, i.e at -4 and -6 points on the day, then bought the full complement on bounce to -2. Trying to add more without paying too much. Starting to gain confidence in the short trades.

[lawdog]

Got back to 43% short near the lows on the first bounce; but by trying to save a penny on each share, that cost me adding more shorts; I normally put in trades at the market, but the per share price of the SDS is so low that I hat to pay that extra penny per share, because it often turns into two pennies. oh well, the shorts are working pretty well; glad I hold at least a modest short position. This could be a serious drop. 

[lawdog]

sold 30% of my short position at spx -11 on the day. If a bounce happens but doesn't do well, I will probably add these back. I still fear an inauguration day bounce.

[lawdog]

If the bounce takes spx back to -6, I will buy back what I just sold, i.e. that 30% of my position in sds.SDS is the double inverse SPX etf.