doubled my spx short position from 6% to 12%. Still have 4% in short naz100, along with vxx which is starting to act pretty good, and my beloved silver. this is a hard time to be short, but the hard trade is usually the right trade. A strong move either way is likely. If the bears catch a break, the momentum players will bail out, and if the bears can't run with it, there's a lot of money out there that would still like to get in. It's no time to be a hero if you are a trader. If you are a buy and hold, fine, hold. But for those of us who don't want to get hurt too bad regardless of direction, it is very tricky here. After it happens, you will look back and say that you predicted it or should have, but there is no way right now to have a high degree of certainty on the immediate direction.
My trading plan right now
#192
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Posted 06 June 2017 - 11:22 AM
Not impressed with the bears right now; sold my VXX for a modest profit. Have a sell limit on 1/2 of my spx short position. playing it very close right now. Don't have much of any opinion other than I think the bulls are going to win this one very shortly. Usually when I am in this position, it goes down a bit more, so I will be patient with my remaining short unless the market really shows some firming.
#193
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Posted 06 June 2017 - 11:36 AM
All I have left right now is small spx short and small naz short, amount to about a 10% position, then my silver etf which continues to act well.
Put/call ratios intra-day are showing lots of action on the put side. yesterday was just the opposite. I always pay attention to these things but they are doing nothing but mixed signals right now. Before I can get more clarity, positions will be small. I still think there is a bias to the downside, at least for a few hours more of trading. Market is very tricky here.
#194
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Posted 06 June 2017 - 01:08 PM
Increased spx 2x short position from 6% to 15% at 2433. Also bought back my long vxx position.Turn around Tuesday appears to be failing. Why? Probably because the market is overbought and needs to come down to coax new buyers. So I'm a little heavier short now. Don't try this at home, kids.
#195
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Posted 06 June 2017 - 02:07 PM
increased short spx from 15% to 30%, so I am getting a bit aggressive here. market should be doing better today, but it's not, so maybe something is afoot.
#196
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Posted 06 June 2017 - 04:55 PM
Quite often as a market continues a healthy advance, even small setbacks will be met with significant put activity. The last two days have seen modest declines, but these have not been met with increased put activity, but are actually showing some of the lowest put activity in recent months. This would concern me if I were holding long positions. While other sentiment measures are generally not extreme in their bullishness, they are not by any means approaching points normally associated with rebounds, so my guess is the market continues down a bit more until we get a little more panic in the option players, as evidenced by more put activity than we have right now. Also, as I wrote above, it disturbs me that the market was weak in the last hour in both Monday and tuesday, and that there was no turnaround Tuesday today, suggesting that the market may be at a point of exhaustion. for how long this lasts, that's the question.
#197
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Posted 07 June 2017 - 01:53 AM
it's interesting to see a market get itself into trouble, and to see how quickly that can occur. i have been reluctant to short here, but, as one can tell from my posts on Tuesday, I have gained some confidence in the short side. Overnite futures show some strength, which is perfect. if we get a weak bounce wednesday, that would work off the mild oversold, setting up for a stronger decline on Thursday and Friday. in the recent past, a setup like this would lead to immediate strength, especially in the naz. let's see how it goes on Weds. a weak mkt today would be very telling. I have gotten myself to about 35% short, mainly in spx, in addition to the vxx. will be looking for signals to increase my shorts. my spx shorts are all put on right around 2437-2440, so they have some profit already, as does the vxx. i would not be surprised to lose all that small profit at some point on Weds, but a small bounce is probably needed to set up a bigger decline on Thurs and Friday. I suspect the down days will be stronger than the up days, causing a general decline in the averages, but things will probably get oversold quickly, in the number of days; so what will be very important is the magnitude of the down days.
Bears are probably hoping for some bombshells from Comey. this would coincide with a setup for weakness, but, as in the recent past, these events which the left thinks will turn things against trump don't amount to much more than breathless reports on CNN. but perception is reality, at least for a day or so. but again, I don't expect much from Comey other than more opportunities for sensational headlines from the leftist media, which could have a short-term effect. more important might be the apparent rift brewing, or now fully percolating, between trump and AG Sessions, which seems real and may have some lasting impact.
#198
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Posted 07 June 2017 - 09:34 AM
added 6% more short.
#199
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Posted 07 June 2017 - 01:23 PM
silver backed off $0.14, almost one percent, so doubled my position. Market is acting as expected, small bounce today, works off short-term oversold, setting the stage for some more significant declines in the coming next few days. I doubt the decline will last long, but it could do some damage, in the neighborhood of 1.5-2.0% off the averages.
#200
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Posted 08 June 2017 - 09:08 AM
how to game comey today? yesterday's release of comey's script suggests that comey won't be dropping any bombshells against trump. so the bulls are confident that, at least for now, trump is safe, so they hold and buy, and when the testimony is out of the way, the market breaks out to new highs.
as anyone knows who reads this, i just turned a bit bearish a few days ago. so if one is bearish, how do you game comey? simple: the traders have bot on the rumor that comey has no bombshells to lob today, and once he is finished testifying and trump escapes generally unscathed, and then the market fails to respond positively, they sell on the news.
right now I favor the bear side, but we shall see how things unfold. I have about 40% short now, so with my usual 2x leverage, that's a pretty big short position.
I wonder what's the deal with silver. kind of sad.
