216 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

naz100 now lagging; not good unless we rotate to broad mkt, but that does not seem to be happening. getting very interested in chance for a decline. still long, but i have an itchy trigger finger.

[lawdog]

looking at long vix. lots of money to be made there if we can catch it right. took small long vxx position at 13.30

[lawdog]

have mental sell on spx if it trades below 2410. will let it ride as long as it goes up, but i think a failure here is possible. i won't say failure is likely, but a reasonable possibility. on the other hand, maybe action will rotate to spx for a while. we are at that 2417 level where spx was turned back from on friday close. 

[lawdog]

sold down to 20% long at spx 2417, plus small vxx position and silver etf.  just not impressed with today's rally; figured i may as well bank the small gain today, although first day of new month has a tendency, i think, to persist in its initial direction. happy with how silver came back a lot from the overnite 1% drop. i am emotionally invested in that trade even though it is a small position.

[lawdog]

so I will continue to hold my remaining 20% long position overnite. certainly will not be shorting, at least not today.

[lawdog]

definitely in overbought territory. probably will hold my remaining 20% long position, spx 2x etf, until the position starts to fail. small correction could set up more new highs. the fact that the mkt could become overbought is a plus for more highs. pretty much playing defense right now. decline in averages of any significance might be asking too much. 

 

was looking for 2430 minimum. is another 2% possible? of course. but unlikely that i will increase my long position here without some consolidation. if it runs away to the upside, i will make some money on remaining smallish position. 

[lawdog]

took a small short position against the naz100. could be early, but i'm compelled. already lost .02 per share, which is a lot at 16.40 a share. still long spx, vxx and silver. my silver is up, with some trades along the way, about 9% but it is only about 3% of total leveraged investment. but every little bit helps. so spx is about 20% of fully invested and slv, vxx and qid, short naz11 2x, make up 10% of fully invested. so I am hedged, which basically means I don't make any money regardless of market direction.

[lawdog]

sold off my remaining spx at spx 2437. Not going to tempt fate any more.

[lawdog]

Well, I have sold off all my major positions now, the last 20% to go at spx 2437. I just couldn't ride the momentum any longer. It was a good ride. My only regret was closing out my qld naz100 about $5.00 too soon. That cost me some performance. Hindsight. I now have less than a 10% position, with 1/2 of it in silver, then the other half, 5%, between long vix and short naz100, which, in the naz, in about 4 hours today I lost 1 1/4%. That was a stupid short, but I felt that naz100 was fading against the spx. but it got in gear, didn't it. 

 

Not much to say right now. Glad the market had the strength to become overbought, but now that it is quite overbought, what to do? For now, I have mixed signals so I will keep positions small and very short term. Many indicators are overbought, but others aren't that bad. So that suggests an upward bias. The momentum is so strong. It won't end until it ends. How's that for insight? Another 2% up from here in the spx is certainly possible, but I don't consider it likely from the current level. Maybe some consolidation can set up for the remaining runup. Or maybe it will just keep barreling ahead, giving you no chance of jumping back on without paying up for it. but usually it let's you back on, and if it doesn't, there is always another day. But here's my problem: the market has gone far enough here that if it peaks, it may not be just an interim peak, but it might be a peak of some significance. So it will be very hard to buy dips again, since these last few days may mark a top for a while or longer. I have achieved 2/3 of my performance goal for the year in 5 months, so that's good; but I just wonder where my next decent trade is going to show up next.

[lawdog]

I enter the week essentially flat, just a 3.5% short position in naz100, which is already at a 1.25% loss, then an even smaller position in vix (vxx) showing a small loss, then a 5% position in slv, a silver etf, which, with a few trades, is up 9%, (which really looks like it will go much higher, so may increase that a bit on Monday if we don't gap higher too much).

 

so first, I don't want to lose much money this week. second, i don't see why things should change yet, i.e. the long side has been the correct side. third, momentum looks a bit overbought, so perhaps a few days of consolidation will provide a safer point to re-enter longs.

 

i am very intrigued by what will be the resolution of all this, especially the high TRIN, where the volume is going to declining stocks. no predictions other than this: if you are short and get a pullback, don't overstay your position. i don't see any way that my naz100 position will get back to breakeven before i dump it unless there is a naz gap opening down of more than 25 points, in which (unlikely) naz could experience a rout (wishful thinking), and if it does experience a rout, i will lament my too-small short position. traders are never satisfied.