42 replies to this topic

[hiker]

ogm/RD: 1. the market is going back up at some point is what I believe. 2. and will likely move to levels above the 2007 highs. 3. the wall of worry is in full power mode since the August and the recent selloff. the lower price goes, the better will be the foundation for the rally that follows. 4. I like all this confusion and lack of clean participation for the "retail" participant. 5. you know from my prior posts here, that my primary data point is the midline BB on the monthly SPX and NYA..the full period of price advance in recent years has generally found support at that data point, just like it has so far in the current decline sequence. the only conclusion I am able to draw from this observation is "garden variety" 10% correction, until something else ACTUALLY occurs. 6. it is more simple than it appears; the market does not want us to participate at the most opportune moments.

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 12:09 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

The Halloween BOOO! still lingers:

ogm/RD:

1. the market is going back up at some point is what I believe.

2. and will likely move to levels above the 2007 highs.

3. the wall of worry is in full power mode since the August and the recent selloff. the lower price goes, the better will be the foundation for the rally that follows.

4. I like all this confusion and lack of clean participation for the "retail" participant.

5. you know from my prior posts here, that my primary data point is the midline BB on the monthly SPX and NYA..the full period of price advance in recent years has generally found support at that data point, just like it has so far in the current decline sequence. the only conclusion I am able to draw from this observation is "garden variety" 10% correction, until something else ACTUALLY occurs.

6. it is more simple than it appears; the market does not want us to participate at the most opportune moments.

I couldn't agree more.

[hiker]

hey RD, you think we are going to have a scorcher rally in December, or a wishy washy one? or none at all? just an odds guess is what I am asking for. I see you went flat Friday. I am thinking we have one, just do not know if it will be from the get go, or we go down for a while first. tough calls here...QQQQ 60 min is looking like it MAY want to lead us lower....keeping an eye on GOOG, AAPL, RIMM for additional clues. hey, its time to go hiking and see what sort of animals are tracking up the snow today.. later and thanks for sharing your views guys.

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 12:13 PM.

[ogm]

Here is my present view of the monthly chart.

I'd be more comfortable with this monthly chart, if we cracked down towards the moving averages. and RSI retested 50 zone and turned back up.

At this point this whole thing looks very stretched out, wobbly, with many negative divergences.

It certainly can go into a huge uptrend here if makes a big push to the highs, but... its not there yet.

[hiker]

interesting points, ogm...a retest or even lower of the recent V bottom would satisfy the setup that you speak of in SPX monthly above?

NYA monthly...monthly close Friday above a major H line is bullish

price resides just below the slightly DECLINING 5mo. sma..impt to have some weekly closes above soon, or sellers may get all excited again about selling resistance?

have not conducted the calcs, but the appearance of Friday's close within the monthly price candle..looks like a .618 retrace of the monthly decline has been achieved. close-up monthly below the first monthly.

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 12:37 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Question:

you think we are going to have a scorcher rally in December, or a wishy washy one? or none at all?

Answer:

best to react to what price ACTUALLY does and avoid the temptation to predict.

My sentiment is useless, except for a fade.

[SemiBizz]

I have a CONFIRMED SELL signal on the Nasdaq monthly chart. As for the QQQQ, it is a narrower measure. And as I have always said, if you want to be confused about the underlying, just follow the signals of the derivatives. The cleanest signals in the equity market are given by the vehicles/indices with the highest overall volume. At a minimum we'll test the August Lows across the indices, yes even on the NDX. I see the ultimate support on the Nasdaq here now at 2251. That's a cool 410 points from here.

[ogm]

I would be satisfied at the restest of that %% EMA on monthly at 1290 area, provided the market internals can build a solid bottom there and turn back up uniformly. Then the bull market would be able to resume in force. Here.. its just too uncertain. Also antoher line I forgot to make on that chart is MACD histogramm divergence between 2004 peak and the previous peak. Once again a big double divergence showing massive trend exhaustion.

Edited by ogm, 01 December 2007 - 12:35 PM.

[hedgehawk]

Nice analysis Rogerdodger, I think you are onto something. I think they take it higher on Monday (just need some bullish news) then we get a pull back (not a sell off slight difference), then they run it up into the FED. This would be consistent with your timing model and also take into account the FED which may get a huge spike up on the bias statement. Then we get the "SELL OFF." Gotta get really devious and shiesty to see that one. I feel slimy just writing it.

[hiker]

interesting SB..thanks. I notice that NDX has 8 consecutive monthly closes above the rising 5mo. sma.

Edited by hiker, 01 December 2007 - 12:48 PM.