42 replies to this topic

[ogm]

The reason for the divergence in the index is GOOG, RIMM, AMZN, AAPL etc., I think Hank and the boyz figured out a way to goose the market on relatively little money. Look inside that thing, the semiconductors are devestated. CSCO and DELL just fell on their @SSeS. MSFT and ORCL went nowhere.

I think RIMM is the next one to get creamed.

[SemiBizz]

A lot of the smallcaps I follow have fallen apart, here's a few names AMCC, FNSR, MRVC, GGBM, LSCC.. I could go on. Bottom line is when these things don't come back when the big caps go higher, that's my first clue that the decline is not over, and may have just really gotten started.

[Echo]

Very high volume in QQQQ during a steep drop could actually be bullish according to Jason G's liquidity premium analysis. It turns out to be an indicator of severe bearish sentiment as people look to the ease of selling or shorting QQQQ rather than take the effort to short individual stocks or baskets of stocks. Now, if it ever gets tough to short QQQQ, then you know you are either in crash mode or very close to a bottom. Echo

[ogm]

Very high volume in QQQQ during a steep drop could actually be bullish according to Jason G's liquidity premium analysis. It turns out to be an indicator of severe bearish sentiment as people look to the ease of selling or shorting QQQQ rather than take the effort to short individual stocks or baskets of stocks.

Now, if it ever gets tough to short QQQQ, then you know you are either in crash mode or very close to a bottom.

Echo

There is data on open short interest in QQQQ out there somewhere, that will probably prove or disprove his theory.

[vitaminm]

qqqq ctrend......55......if reversed..46-47

[hiker]

ogm,

quote of your prior thought in this thread:

So its a tough call here. I'd say we're in a topping process more likely then in a bottoming process.

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considering this and your trendlines on the monthly SPX 14RSI does point out that as price made new highs the RSI formed lower highs, and the RSI support t/l break you have drawn on the monthly chart is NOT a positive until neutralized.

this supports your observation that a topping process is more likely than a bottoming process...and last week's late price action may simply be a counter trend move in what will eventually be a continued decline.

So, whether the monthly RSI neutralizes the lower highs formation will obviously require more time than we may have patience to determine the most profitable trading strategies if we are short term traders. It will likely take some time for an upside break of the current d/t line on the RSI, if such an event occurs.

you may be correct in selling rallies and NOT believing that price moves back up will be sustained.

why believe price rallies will be lasting ones, when the monthly RSI is declining?

thanks, everyone, for all the good observations.

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SPX monthly:

1. the 5mo. sma is declining and price resides below - strong resistance?

2. 1492.35 and 1512.60 are the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the Oct to Nov decline....

1472.11 the .382...

3. data point confluence for potential R:

1488.43 is the weekly midline BB

1489.65 prior rally failure point at an obvious daily horizontal going back to June

1492.35 50% retrace level..retracement of the Oct to Nov decline

approx 1495 is the July crossunder point, where 8wk ema crossed below the weekly midline BB

1497.31 is the current DECLINING 5mo. sma



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SPX weekly..RSI has not yet moved above 50; will CCI move above -100 be sustained? -



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NYA daily

the non-confirming items on this chart, courtesy of Mat McKee, are readily apparent:

Edited by hiker, 02 December 2007 - 09:37 AM.

[hiker]

Footquarters has a point with this SPX chart -

http://investorshub....age_id=24963248

[Rogerdodger]

Footquarters has a point with this SPX chart -

http://investorshub....age_id=24963248

His/her (no sexism here) chart is what I had in mind, at least as far as needing a pullback.
If we get it and see s/t sentiment turn a bit more bearish, that would interest me on the long side.

As another Okie, Will Rogers, once said:

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it ... If it don't go up, don't buy it."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 December 2007 - 12:28 PM.

[Getting-Smarter]

Hiker, you're correct, I don't beleive this rally.

To be honest at this point I do not know what to beleive. The market is torn apart. This isn't the bull market anymore, and not bear market yet.

I'm looking at some charts that have entered clear downtrends and represent big chunks of the market, like RUT or Transports. At the same time Utilities are in a strong uptrend.

Financials are oversold, but they are also now entering LT downtrends. So they are bouncing now, but beyond that they still need to prove they can build on that bounce.

Internals are very strongly diverging.

Even looking at NDX.. yes its in uptrend, but more then half of its components are in downtrends with BP under 50%.

So the question is will the strong stocks carry the indexes for a bit longer, will the weak segments start catching up, or will the strong stocks finaly succumb to broader weakness and start pulliung the indexes down ? If the history is any guide, strongs stocks should give in eventualy.

Price action alone here is also questionable. Loss of momentum and negative divergences are all over the place on weekly/monthly charts. Daily is struggling in the middle of support/resistance areas.

So its a tough call here. I'd say we're in a topping process more likely then in a bottoming process.

OGM

Glad you said that as I am really torn here. I am only a beginner at TA but see some signs that concern me. Divergence on monthly of RSI and the AD broke the trend it has held since bull started in '03.

As well, could you say what H line is that you discuss? Not too savvy on all the TA terms. I appreciate this site, hoping to learn more here. TIA



[/shack.us]

[hiker]

Hi GS, just a thought to consider. We both know who sent those charts to his subscribers. You may want to at least consider giving credit to the chartist as common courtesy. the chartist may have an issue with someone distributing charts for which folks pay a fee.

Edited by hiker, 02 December 2007 - 02:07 PM.