22 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

I provided an anecdote, nothing more. Just sharing what I heard. I can't legally disclose the company, but it is big and national. The market is being sucked up to test the highs, so I am long right now. I think the payroll report and reaction will tell the tale, but I plan to lighten up or hold a few puts going into friday.

GD

This supports what FedEx has said on 9/20 that weak economy will force profits down. DJT Index is also way off its recent highs.

This is a remarkable change form the breakneck growth in trucking business during past years. In fact, there were many media reports of lack of skilled drivers.

5/31/2005 For those who think the shortage of truck drivers is overstated, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) has a new study, based on statistical analysis, that indicates the U.S. is currently short of 20,000 drivers. If current trends continue, the same report predicts that the shortage of long-haul, heavy-duty truck drivers in the U.S. could reach as high as 111,000 by the year 2014.

3/9/2007 Retaining truck drivers is not an easy job. The driver market is the tightest it has been in 20 years, and the turnover rate at large trucking companies exceeds 100%, according to the American Trucking Association.

[NAV]

Got SRS at 76. Will dump it on you at 620 sometime in 2008-09, at which time you will be talking about lack of liquidity.

Sure Greenie. Remember, you can only dump it on those who are short, which i am not. Also remember, trading is not about ego. It's not about predictions. It's not about timeframe. It's about prudent money management, just like any other business.

We do not penny-trade, and have 15 forecasts at different hours of the day. There are better things to do.

I am sure. You better have...

BTW, when did that "I" become "We"

But I was wrong about my QQQQ target of 14. It is now updated to 12.5.

You must be having pockets as deep as Marinas trench. Anyway good luck.

[OEXCHAOS]

But I was wrong about my QQQQ target of 14. It is now updated to 12.5.

Do you think making dramatically lower targets on a position that's going opposite to the (outlandish) prediction is a sound strategy?

Let me tell you and everyone else, it's NOT. The market doesn't care that you're angry and subborn or smart or well studied. It loves to chew up and swallow those folks, in fact.

I have no QQQQ position - so save your lecture for somebody else. Also, I am not trying to make outlandish prediction - just what I see from my model.

Well, firstly, it was for everyone else, because you never listen to me anyway.

Secondly, I don't see much utility to a model that makes predictions that are 6 sigma events--such is (irrespective of intent) outlandish. What are the testing results of this model? How predictive is it? (that's for your benefit, not anyone here)

Regarding SRS, all I can tell you is I have a plan and time-frame, and I am just executing it accordingly. I try to hedge countermoves with SSO (SPX double long), options or individual stocks. So, the pullback to the portfolio may not be as great as what you wrote.

Either it is or it isn't. If you're any sort of a trader, you ought to have a pretty good idea how hedged you were during this 39 point drop. I certainly HOPE you were, hedged. And since it wasn't clear at all that you were, I wanted to make sure others reading would realize that such a give back is anathema to a trader.

People come here to learn and I try to do my best to show them how to make and not lose money. That includes you, if I perceive a problem (rightly or wrongly).

Mark

[linrom1]

Got SRS at 76. Will dump it on you at 620 sometime in 2008-09, at which time you will be talking about lack of liquidity.

While most of Greenie's predictions may or may not happen-- they are certainly within realm of possible--there is something wrong with his prediction of SRS going to 620. First, both IYR and SRS track DJUS Real Estate, except that SRS approximates it inversely at 2 times . If hypothetically, IRY goes to zero so will DJUS Real Estate Index. Since SRS is inversely related to IRY x 2, the most that SRS can increase by is IRY x 2. With IRY trading at $79, that would roughly translate to SRS value at $160. For SRS to trade at 600, IRY would have to trade at 300.

[NAV]

Oh and last but not the least, timeframe has got nothing to do with one's profitability. The longer you sit does not mean you are more profitable. It's more about direction and timing and money management. Just as an example. It was posted real-time on this board. I bought XLF calls right near the bottom on Aug 15 and sold it next day for 100% gain. It was about 5% gain on my overall account. Some money managers make that kind of returns in a year, diversifying on 100 stocks, hedging and managing all thoughout the year. A month later on Sep 15, it was trading below where i sold. Even today, it's trading around the same levels as 1.5 months ago. Now it does not make a guy a genius for holding it for two months and selling it at the same level where i sold after holding it for a day Two words - TIMING, MONEY MANAGEMENT

[NAV]

Got SRS at 76. Will dump it on you at 620 sometime in 2008-09, at which time you will be talking about lack of liquidity.

While most of Greenie's predictions may or may not happen-- they are certainly within realm of possible--there is something wrong with his prediction of SRS going to 620. First, both IYR and SRS track DJUS Real Estate, except that SRS approximates it inversely at 2 times . If hypothetically, IRY goes to zero so will DJUS Real Estate Index. Since SRS is inversely related to IRY x 2, the most that SRS can increase by is IRY x 2. With IRY trading at $79, that would roughly translate to SRS value at $160. For SRS to trade at 600, IRY would have to trade at 300.

Oh, c'mon now linrom, don't be so naive. It's theoritically possible. IYR can have multiple reverse splits, which can push SRS over 600.

[OEXCHAOS]

OK, guys, let's not beat up on someone for being wrong on the market. That kills discussion. I'm making a few posts invisible. Mark

[greenie]

Geeziz...all this crap for a trade that is still highly profitable. What will you guys do, if, for god's sake, one of these long term positions ever go negative? Have you checked my other positions held from March ? BZH short - almost 100% gain, CTX short - nearly same, BSC - over 30%, and so on and on and on (all entries posted realtime in TW board).

Just as an example. It was posted real-time on this board. I bought XLF calls right near the bottom on Aug 15 and sold it next day for 100% gain. It was about 5% gain on my overall account.

Good trade. Now can you show some of your trades that did not require staring at the screen all day to collect some changes most day, and good money once in three months? August 15th, I was at a scientific conference all day.

[OEXCHAOS]

Greenie, Nav has nothing to worry about over night because he's often flat. He never, EVER takes the draw downs that you've taken on some stuff. While your profitable positions are to be commended, it's sort of silly to pretend that big give backs are just the cost of making returns and not working at it every day. That's no at all the case (though if you're an investor, that may in fact be the case) But it's important to note that, a day trader has a lot more freedom than most folks. In fact, I know that I've had some really good profits while walking over to Ohio, enjoying some beautiful weather with my wife. You can put your position on, set your stops and your targets and go do something fun. Mark

[mss]

lets see ----------- short this, trade that, post this, go long, loose your profit, no you cant do that, only stupid people hold, did you post in real time,---------

The thread title was: "Informal Trucking indicator"

I tried to learn something, .........and I guess I did.
mss