42 replies to this topic

[CHAx]

fwiw long from 753.......short bonds from 137.....short crude from 144

you too?

[Rogerdodger]

"cud be the biggest up day in history."


"cud be the biggest up day in history."


"cud be the biggest up day in history."


"cud be the biggest up day in history."

Is there an echo in here?

[zigzag]

I'm suposed to be out this week but I try to keep an eye on big picture stuff. So I couldn't help but post something here. I'm not gonna take a position and walk away from this market but this looks really interesting. For all you bulls looking for that Big fish, all I have to say is more power to ya. Whatever. I see a really nice pivot here if I had time to babysit. I don't place hard stops anymore.

[pdx5]

Every one of those pauses and bounces seemed important at the time in 2001 and early 2002, but were, in retrospect, just the markets way of digesting its losses before resuming it's decline.

That is true based on actually what happened. But that viewpoint is mainly true for next 6-10 months.
After 2003 the market rocketed upwards.

For those of us who are taking the longer term approach such as 2 to 5 years, the present levels of
market prices are 4th life time buying opportunities. 1974, 1987, 2002 and current.

I missed 1974 completely, was in junk bonds in 1987 but scored in 2003 by going strongly long.
One more success like 2003 and I can go away for good in happy land.

[Gary Smith]

Every one of those pauses and bounces seemed important at the time in 2001 and early 2002, but were, in retrospect, just the markets way of digesting its losses before resuming it's decline.

That is true based on actually what happened. But that viewpoint is mainly true for next 6-10 months.
After 2003 the market rocketed upwards.

For those of us who are taking the longer term approach such as 2 to 5 years, the present levels of
market prices are 4th life time buying opportunities. 1974, 1987, 2002 and current.

I missed 1974 completely, was in junk bonds in 1987 but scored in 2003 by going strongly long.
One more success like 2003 and I can go away for good in happy land.

pdx5, you seem to be the voice of reason and you have a plan. I wish you the best of luck. As for buying opportunities, so far at least, November was *the* buying opportunity of our lifetime in bonds, or at least since the 1930s, as many classes of bonds were priced for a depression instead of a serious recession. I am anxious to see if in the next few months if that so-called buying opportunity of a lifetime evaporates as corporate defaults spike upward or if that opportunity spreads to equities.

Edited by Gary Smith, 04 February 2009 - 12:36 AM.

[hare_bear]

cud be the biggest up day in history!

using iblayz count,,

link

Edited by hare_bear, 04 February 2009 - 12:50 AM.

[hare_bear]

what else is going on...fractals? dont know much about 'em but this caught my eye drawing up that last chart.

looking at the same chart, and color coded for your viewing pleasure.

Link

[toni]

Charles, What is the status of the IBD signal now? What I mean has it given the 2nd confirmation you were talking about? I noticed in the paper today it still says market rally still under pressure. Toni

[tuffy88]

Toni, Saw your post an hour ago, but waited until the market closed before answering. No there has not been a 2nd confirmation day. And yes the market rally is under pressure. Today was the 2nd distribution day for the Dow Industrials & S&P500, but not for the Nasdaq. Not sure about the New York Composit yet. Price has still not undercut Day 1 of rally attempt so system is still on a buy. And still under pressure. I paid $29.87 for my QQQQ's last Thursday and they closed today at $29.92 so I am now up 5 cents a share. If the Dow Industrials close tomorrow below the close of Day 1 of rally attempt I will exit position on Friday. Can only wait & see. Close below 8000 today in Industrials was not really decisive in my opinion. Might be over 8000 again tomorrow night. Charles

[toni]

Thanks Charles. I wish some of those who gave you a hard time in this thread would post, in real time, their trades as you do. Then we might find out if they know what they are talking about or if they are just blowing hot air. Toni