25 replies to this topic

[stockbucks_coffee]

thks for the info TomD. being a short term trader I'll play for the brief bounce if it 'looks' good tomorrow. may hold a day or so, if longer the better depending how the TA indicators look and how I 'feel' the market is behaving. yeah, could be just a brief reaction to the 200dma of the xau/hui. best SC.

[skott]

the writing is on the wall. deflation/depression is coming. I exited the last of my shares this morning pre market and I think I got the best price of the day...44.85 on NEM and then went short DIA. I think we COULD get a bounce in gold stocks and the market but this is IMO the beginning of the end. I posted a message early this morning that is was going to get very ugly. scott

[SevenOfEleven]

TS, don't know if tomorrow is a low/bottom but it's likely there be at least a brief bounce on Wednesday.

I only said it would be a bottom if I were to sell. Since I didn't sell, that means gold is headed straight down from here....

Don't feel bad, I'm sitting on a ton of silver at 8.20

Worst part is, I was playing a self-contrarian move (e.g. I bent my own self over *ouch!*)...sigh...

-Seven

[TechSkeptic]

TS, if it's any confort...I'm likely to be a big buyers tomorrow mostly in gold stocks. I'll buying much lesser this time in silver stocks, I think for the medium term, silver and silvers stocks will underperform the gold stuff.

remembered the gold/silver ratio, well it bounced up from 51 and the silver stuff are getting it to the chin. we see how it does when it gets toward 60. currently at +54. best SC.

Stockbucks,

Just curious if you have any timeframe and/or targets for your long gold positions (assuming you are opening some today). Although fundamentals would dictate otherwise, technical action is making me very nervous that the long term trend may have turned down and I'm considering at least a partial exit from my core positions if we get a reasonable bounce. As always, I welcome any ideas.

Thanks,
TS

[TechSkeptic]

TS, don't know if tomorrow is a low/bottom but it's likely there be at least a brief bounce on Wednesday.

I only said it would be a bottom if I were to sell. Since I didn't sell, that means gold is headed straight down from here....

Don't feel bad, I'm sitting on a ton of silver at 8.20

Worst part is, I was playing a self-contrarian move (e.g. I bent my own self over *ouch!*)...sigh...

-Seven

Thanks Seven. Good luck with your silver trade. We may yet recover. A lot depends on USD action. I'm thinking most of this precious metal tanking is mainly driven by fear of a big USD rally based on higher interest rates. If that rally doesn't happen as fast or as go as far as expected, PM sector may still recover in IT. Of course, the market can do anything it wants.

[TechSkeptic]

the writing is on the wall. deflation/depression is coming. I exited the last of my shares this morning pre market and I think I got the best price of the day...44.85 on NEM and then went short DIA. I think we COULD get a bounce in gold stocks and the market but this is IMO the beginning of the end. I posted a message early this morning that is was going to get very ugly.

scott

You could be right Scott, but I still think inflation is coming before deflation. Probably exiting your positions was a good prudent decision, and I am being somewhat foolhardy to hang on. Considering making the 200 DMA of gold contract be my hard stop for all PM positions.

[stockbucks_coffee]

things can change on a dime in the market, but for now I definitely think it will not rally above yesterday's high. For HUI I'll be checking whether to sell around 220. I bought WHT,KRY,DROOY,GSS,BGO after the open so I'm up couple % already. I would definitely avoid silver stocks and they should be the first to sell if you have both gold/silver stocks. (gold/silver ratio is now bearish for the silver stuff.) as of now the xau/hui are off their lows and WAS up but is now down a bit. these are intraday stuff where hedgers and MMs are running around hitting them stop and limit orders. But I think xau/hui could close higher today (and maybe tomorrow.) will see and update later. best, SC.

[skott]

techskeptic, I thought you were teki. where did teki go? he may be severly traumatized by recent events. he'll bounce back just like the gold stocks will for a little bit but I think they are in some serious dodo. Me thinks things are getting a bit crazy for trading. So many derivative time bombs out there waiting to explode. Howard Ruff just came out with a new book saying gold is going way above $1000/oz........errh bad timing for him I think. He could be right though, the way things are now anything can happen. OUr Federal friends are now taking bids to build prison for U.S non combatants. does this worry anyone? the more you read the more scared you get but one can always take the popular route of burying one's head in the sand. OOps, getting a bit off subject. there is support in this area for gold stocks and I could see em bouncing mmmm, 3-5% before causing heart attacks among the gold bugs. cheers Scott

[teki]

scott, you're not the first to get me and techkeptic confused. But I'm doing fine, thanks - and felt good to be out of the gold stocks today. Though with the 200 ema being tested, and all, its going to be tough to not want to jump back in as it goes up a bit here (if it does), but I am going to wait to see how this bottom processes unfolds. I not going to try to pick a bottom, but I do want be long from a reasonable level. Should be fun to watch unfold more objectively now that I don't have a position. And I agree, there is the potential for plenty more downside. In fact I am as flat the equity, gold, and mutual fund market as I have been in a long time. Its nice to come up for air...

[Thunders]

Including me, everyone here was hopping for the XAU and HUI to go up.

But as you all can see HUI has broken down.

I am out of Gold and Silver except for PMU; and that is because I got in very cheap.

I would say do not try to bottom fish.

Always trade the middle.

Believe it or not!!!

Charts say:

XAU around 80

HUI around 150

That is how far down we can work our charts down from here.

No assurance I can give that we would be all the way down, we can bounce and go up if a positive event work itself in the picture.

Keep your powder dry for great bargains are about to make us money.




XAU