32 replies to this topic

[Psycho]

I want to thank everyone here for posting on this forum and giving thier advice and notice of the buying and selling they do. Since finding this forum I have been able to recover all my losses and posted a nice profit year to date. I have been telling all my friends of my belief in the future for gold and gold related stocks. They all think I am crazy. Well not all, my brother and two coworkers have been keeping up with gold and have invested as much as they feel comfortable with of their own accord. We all touch base and share links to articles and share current events about the economy and the actions they see others taking or not taking to protect their wealth. Last Friday night I went to a local auction house. There is a man who attends that is a retired stock investor. He is heavy into industrial chemical companies. I have been telling him I was in gold. He has been treating me like I was so sad and pathetic. Last Friday his tone changed. He asked me what I thought would happen next. I gave my opinion about gold and natural gas. This week he tells me he is going to buy some natural gas companies this fall to hopefully take advantage of the coming fall bounce. Maybe he will make money, maybe not, time will tell. He said he is afraid to buy gold. I told him I was afraid not too. Thanks again, I am still 90% in miners, 10% natural gas. My reasoning is simple. I have see many companies go to ZERO but never gold.

[inamosa]

bottom line: the real risk is being out of the real bull as dharma has so patiently told us.
thinking any one of us, short of senior , will time it right is JUST PLAIN NUTS

This is why I have a long-term holding in gold miners in a separate account specifically for long-term trades. I look at that account about once a week, and have kept positions in it sometimes for years at a time. No intention to sell my long-term holding in gold miners for a long time (years, probably, maybe even several years - but I'm not promising anything).

However, I do have another account which I trade in much more frequently (swing trades and position trades) and which I monitor daily, and sometimes I do buy and sell gold miners in it. Often I trade the S&P, bonds, oil, natural gas, Nikkei, etc. in it, however, as well. I trade the S&P the most, by far.

I find separating time frames in one's trading to be quite helpful.

[dharma]

If I may comment:

I have Wed, Thurs or Fri of this week marking a potential turn in gold, FWIW - similar to what you say Merriman has

My feeling is we will either start moving lower to re-test the top of the triangle ($970-75) or start to explode higher, by the end of this week


If a re-test of the top of the triangle were to occur, and fail, $950 would be the next level of support for gold


Just my opinion, FWIW

the bradley is monday
i have the cycle end on the 18th
marcus rose has the bradley on the 18th
http://www.bradleymo...om/markus_rose/
so , i will go w/my work and get back to 85% long , i dont like the drawdowns in corrections , but nobody can time the beast of the market to perfection. no body!so , i believe that this is a bull market and will end in a parabolic blowoff. so, w/those premises i will continue to maintain minimum of 85% invested. you can see and feel the loss of confidence in government world wide. as that increase , gold's desirability will increase and thus its price. the dollar is a flawed currency , yes it will have rallies, which will give way to lower lows.
traderama- i am not doing this for the short term. the bottom of the cycle comes in late oct/nov.
dharma

[tradermama]

bottom line: the real risk is being out of the real bull as dharma has so patiently told us.
thinking any one of us, short of senior , will time it right is JUST PLAIN NUTS

I bought my long hold last year around $800. My question was in reference of a short term top which to me will be the last correction for a long time in gold. You are correct, in the long run saving 50-100 pts. Merriman has a 25 yr cycle in gold pointed higher and not due to top out until the end of the next decade..is that long enough... I was curious on Dharma's take.

[tradermama]

If I may comment:

I have Wed, Thurs or Fri of this week marking a potential turn in gold, FWIW - similar to what you say Merriman has

My feeling is we will either start moving lower to re-test the top of the triangle ($970-75) or start to explode higher, by the end of this week


If a re-test of the top of the triangle were to occur, and fail, $950 would be the next level of support for gold


Just my opinion, FWIW

the bradley is monday
i have the cycle end on the 18th
marcus rose has the bradley on the 18th
http://www.bradleymo...om/markus_rose/
so , i will go w/my work and get back to 85% long , i dont like the drawdowns in corrections , but nobody can time the beast of the market to perfection. no body!so , i believe that this is a bull market and will end in a parabolic blowoff. so, w/those premises i will continue to maintain minimum of 85% invested. you can see and feel the loss of confidence in government world wide. as that increase , gold's desirability will increase and thus its price. the dollar is a flawed currency , yes it will have rallies, which will give way to lower lows.
traderama- i am not doing this for the short term. the bottom of the cycle comes in late oct/nov.
dharma

Thanks Dharma. I know that. It was a quesiton of out of curiousity. As I just stated in my last reponse, I have been long gold since $800 last year and nothing will come between me and my gold.

[tradermama]

If I may comment:

I have Wed, Thurs or Fri of this week marking a potential turn in gold, FWIW - similar to what you say Merriman has

My feeling is we will either start moving lower to re-test the top of the triangle ($970-75) or start to explode higher, by the end of this week


If a re-test of the top of the triangle were to occur, and fail, $950 would be the next level of support for gold


Just my opinion, FWIW

I appreciate your input, Aly
TM

[senorBS]

If I may comment:

I have Wed, Thurs or Fri of this week marking a potential turn in gold, FWIW - similar to what you say Merriman has

My feeling is we will either start moving lower to re-test the top of the triangle ($970-75) or start to explode higher, by the end of this week


If a re-test of the top of the triangle were to occur, and fail, $950 would be the next level of support for gold


Just my opinion, FWIW

I appreciate your input, Aly
TM

Too many bulls? COT Spec. positions hit all time record, does not guarantee a decline but if support breaks it will IMO induce heavy selling and probably cause a mucho steeper decline than most are prepared for. Interesting times amigos.

BSing away

Senor

[gvc]

open interest peaked at about 593k in Jan '08. current is 451k. does that mean it has farther to go to suck more in or does that indicate a bearish divergence?

[inamosa]

If I may comment:

I have Wed, Thurs or Fri of this week marking a potential turn in gold, FWIW - similar to what you say Merriman has

My feeling is we will either start moving lower to re-test the top of the triangle ($970-75) or start to explode higher, by the end of this week


If a re-test of the top of the triangle were to occur, and fail, $950 would be the next level of support for gold


Just my opinion, FWIW

I appreciate your input, Aly
TM

Too many bulls? COT Spec. positions hit all time record, does not guarantee a decline but if support breaks it will IMO induce heavy selling and probably cause a mucho steeper decline than most are prepared for. Interesting times amigos.

BSing away

Senor

I noticed that...the COT data is indeed bearish on gold

[dharma]

If I may comment:

I have Wed, Thurs or Fri of this week marking a potential turn in gold, FWIW - similar to what you say Merriman has

My feeling is we will either start moving lower to re-test the top of the triangle ($970-75) or start to explode higher, by the end of this week


If a re-test of the top of the triangle were to occur, and fail, $950 would be the next level of support for gold


Just my opinion, FWIW

I appreciate your input, Aly
TM

Too many bulls? COT Spec. positions hit all time record, does not guarantee a decline but if support breaks it will IMO induce heavy selling and probably cause a mucho steeper decline than most are prepared for. Interesting times amigos.

BSing away

Senor

I noticed that...the COT data is indeed bearish on gold

while i am not disputing what you say on the cot. the assumption there is the commercials are the smart money. in 80 the commercials got overrun and were wrong on the run. so, while most of the time the commercials are correct, there are times when they are not correct
dharma

Edited by dharma, 14 September 2009 - 10:16 AM.