15 replies to this topic

[voltaire]

Dodger I love Laundry, but I also love Ferrera. Ferrera's yearly model called for the March low, the June top and the July bottom and OK the March low was 3 days out. The simple model says a Oct 7 top and so allow +/- 3 tds, so Oct 12 is fine. His explanatory notes say end Oct at the latest but most probably between Oct 10-12. If both these guys are wrong then I don't mind their company. When you consider the 20 year cycle (based on the combination of the presidential 4 year and decennial 10 year which repeat every 20 years) has a 1909 Oct top (don't have exact date), 1929 big rally top about Oct 11 and 1989 top about the same date plus 1987 lower top of Oct 9 etc, it is a time to be cautious. Carolan's crash model which shows all sharp declines finish on the same date based on a lunar calendar suggests the date to be really worried about is Oct 15. Allow a day or two.

[tradermama]

T Theory
http://ttheory.typepad.com/

From your PDF file, using 15 minute real time data, it looks like "A"
occurred on 3/19/09 @ 9:30 AM (S&P 803.24) and "B" occurred on 6/23/09 at
11:00 AM (S&P 888.86). This represents a 68 day, 2 hr time lapse from "A" to
"B".
The subsequent July low "C" (S&P 870.05) occurred on 7/8/09 @ 12:15.
Therefore, the October high "D" looks like it may occur on 10/12/09 @ 14:15.
"Looks good to me...Terry"

I find it interesting that my little 10 minute price T points to near the same area as the very much larger T since March low.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=14&i=p82162297563&a=160512971&are=9795.png

RD,
Thanks for all your input. I have a few questions I dont know if you can answer regarding the T's and the correction to come.

Is there a time element for this correction for how long or short it should be? Doe it matter how long or short it is for the major T to keep working? I can't recall if I saw any post regarding how long if any was stated that Terry thought the correction would or should be and then a continuation upward. I thought I read in Sept that it was possible that we could actually extend a top into November.

I was watching Semis and Intel the past 2 weeks..Semis for a bit were actually acting bearish which they have been leaders all year. Then Friday, Intel especially started taking off ..short of a double top and Semis finished strong for the week. With Intel reporting Tuesday after the bell and their guidance, the question will be is it priced in or upside surprise....sell the news or buy guidance?

I subscribe to Tom McCellan and he has us topping Oct 19th due to this Fed Fund indicator that leads the market. According to his indicator, it has to do with the spread between the target Fed Funds rate and the effective rate that tells us what the Dow is going to do...a negative reading on this indicator meant that the effective rate is higher than the target rate..which means that the NY Fed's Domestic trading desk is not supplying enough liquidity to the banking system so that the effective rate meets the FOMC's target. A negative reading means that money is tighter than the FOMC would want it to be and if the indicator rises it means that the monetary policy is moving from tighter to looser which means ...more liquidity. He noticed there is a 13 day lag period between the monetary policy and the echo in stock prices when this happens so the Dow would catch up to this indicator. It turned on Oct 2nd so he figures Oct 19th as the top unless it breaks his downside target on a closing basis which right now is 1050.72.

However, that said, I just started with his service in September and he was bearish and I don't recall him talking about this indicator but in October he said it has worked through the year. So I'm monitoring his theory/performance currently.

Was there one time this year Terry's T didn't work? I thought there was possibly one time but most of the year it has been amazing.

I was thinking this still might be a slow downside correction during October if it is happening in October depending on how earnings go and guidance of course..no mindset..trying to reconcile Terry's thoughts and other ta I'm watching. However, it would accerlate if we see Wednesday they sell Intels earnings imo.

Thanks again. It really is fascinating.

TM

[Rogerdodger]

Read his update: LINK

I don't pretend to fully understand his theory, so I try not to explain it.

In his update, he doesn't put too much validity in my 10 minute price T above.
(Maybe should be based on a double bottom which would make it end later than what I put.)

As far as being wrong, he admits he can be wrong.
His work is a collection of rules based on observation of past market action.
Sometimes his "interpretation" is like my BS guess, and is just thinking out loud.
I think back in July he thought we might test the envelope bottom since price had dropped below the mid-line. It didn't.
Likewise, on the 1st of October, he showed the possibility of a drop to 1007 area, based on the envelope:

11am If todays opening weakness gathers strength it is possible the market will find an oversold low near the 55 Day MA( S&P 1007). However that is a worst case. Either way look for a rally to a mid October final top.

A critic could incorrectly say he was wrong about 1007, but man was he right about the rally.

However, it would accerlate if we see Wednesday they sell Intels earnings imo.

It seems like there may be lots of news coming which could move the markets.
If we could get a bearish close, say Monday, there might be some fuel for a scorching rally into some of that news.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 October 2009 - 03:30 PM.

[draggen33]

ALMOST TO THE MIN!!! I'm not worthy !!! You are the bomb, the max , the new ******* , all kidding aside great JOB !! THXS FOR INFO !!

[Lysis]

Wow. Kudos, dude.

[voltaire]

Someone asked about Ferrera. Ferrera's model which is generated before the year starts has March 12 as the the first low of the year. He then had June 8th as the next important high and July 10th as the next important low. He then has Oct 7th as the likely high of the year although his discussion suggests Oct 10-12 as the most likely date. For those interested go to Sacred Science Institute. Yes he can be out a few days but anyone giving dates before the year starts should be allowed a little latitude IMO.