35 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Here's Martin Armstrong's answer..

for how long and how low does it go is what is importante?
BSing away
Senor

Hmmm not that clear to this hombre because we topped barely after November, certainly not enough for me to bank on! Let the margs flow! I can't tell you how good if feels to be 95% in cash after a spectacular year. Yeah I missed a good bit of this last move but I killed it in the first 6 months, only piggies in this kind of market get into trouble.

PURE BS

Senor

Since it is so close to the end of Nov. there is a good chance that we have seen the highs from a cyclical point of view, so that implies an April/May low coming, which is what I see for the NYSE. The dollar looks to be changing direction too.

I would love a grande decline into April/May, not confident it happens though.

NO BS

Senor

[Russ]

What I am seeing it the likelyhood that gold has topped here, will go down into April with the stock market, then rally hard into Oct 2010 which will then lead to a big sell off going into the the autumn of 2011 (which is inline with what Armstrong wrote in my earlier post for a 12 month trend to develop after oct. 2010) and also inline with his economic confidence model calling for mid 2011 to be a low. My silver chart has a trend pointing towards a big low for silver around autumn of 2011, I don't imagine silver will go down without gold. Things are going to keep being very volatile by the looks of it.

[Squiggy]

Based on the last two big gold rallies (2005 and 2007) gold will most likely fall farther over the next 1-3 weeks, stabilize, and begin a new rally sometime in early January and continue to rally for at least 1-3 months. So far this gold rally bears all the markings of the last two gold rallies give or take a few weeks here and there.

[dougie]

concur with that timeline

[dharma]

glad you are all in agreement. now, cycles can change, but my cycle work is still calling for a high in the 1st 4 months of 10 w/nothing in 9. so, i will not fight the trend , if it develops, i still think this leg is not over. give jpm hell! i bought the close on friday. looking for an abc over the next days. w/the a being finished. volatility is going to kick up another notch. i dont think the bulls will rollover here. just my 2c dharma

[senorBS]

glad you are all in agreement.
now, cycles can change, but my cycle work is still calling for a high in the 1st 4 months of 10 w/nothing in 9. so, i will not fight the trend , if it develops, i still think this leg is not over. give jpm hell! i bought the close on friday. looking for an abc over the next days. w/the a being finished. volatility is going to kick up another notch. i dont think the bulls will rollover here. just my 2c
dharma

I agree Dharma that it's still a but the dips gold market, if gold drops below 1070 though I change my tune.

Senor

[dougie]

why 1070?

[senorBS]

why 1070?

My analysis is why, and no I won't explain.

BSing away

Senor

[cgnx]

GLD hasn't hit its 50 day MA line in quite some time. I have it at 1080. The last MA line it hit was the 34 day. The focus here is to catch the reversal. It should be muy profitable. Any short term gurus (day trader types) that can spot this turn will make a boatload.

[maineman]

simple trend line and 50 dma. If we get to 1080 - 1070 it will be one of the best buying opps of your lifetime. but, as Shultz says, "Hogan, I Know Nutthing!" mm