28 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Besides me, arbman, goldswingers, and a few remaining bears, Foreigners have been scaling back their purchase of the U.S. equities since July 2009. Gray curve is the 6-month moving average. And, State Streets Investor Confidence Index, a quantitative measure of the actual and changing levels of risk contained in investment portfolios representing about 15% of the world's tradable assets, indicates that portfolio managers have also been scaling back since August 2009... In addition, the surging short interest ratio in the Q indicates continuous momentum in shorting this rally.

Edited by TechMan, 28 December 2009 - 04:45 PM.

[fib_1618]

Besides me, arbman, goldswingers, and a few remaining bears...

With all of the garbage going on with the "New World Order" of governments, how can't anyone be bearish?

The main questions then become:

1) when does (will) it matter to the direction of the stock market?

and

2) why does (will) it matter to the direction of the stock market?

One can post statistics until they're blue in the face, for as long as you want (and many have), but until the mechanisms are in place to feed on these same statistics, they're really just fundamental distractions.

Fib

[selecto]

Perhaps the furriners are dumb money. We are up about 260 since July lows.

[goldswinger]

And, State Streets Investor Confidence Index, a quantitative measure of the actual and changing levels of risk contained in investment portfolios representing about 15% of the world's tradable assets, indicates that portfolio managers have also been scaling back since August 2009... This could be a great indicator when it crosses the 100% line to the downside as in the late summer of 2008. GS.

[TechMan]

1) when does (will) it matter to the direction of the stock market?
and
2) why does (will) it matter to the direction of the stock market?

One can post statistics until they're blue in the face, for as long as you want (and many have), but until the mechanisms are in place to feed on these same statistics, they're really just fundamental distractions.

Fib

Hey Fib,

The "WHEN" is always the quest. Thus, the saying, "Don't tell me what's going to happen; tell me WHEN it's going to happen." No one knows with certainty WHEN anything's going to happen in the future as we're only human. The best we can come up with are statistical probabilities. And posting "statistics until they're blue in the face", as you had commented, is all that everyone's doing here. That's why we're here. Should we all drop it just because everyone has different views and perspectives?

Depending on one's bias, the technicals could be just as distracting as the fundamentals. Some would vow that technicals matter not one bit, and, of course, some would argue, till they're blue in the face, that the fundamentals mean absolutely nothing. And, I'm assuming that you pay no attention to the fundamentals, as per your comment above. I, on the other hand, pay attention to everything that I can get my hands on.

I'm glad we're all so different...

[milbank]

Depending on one's bias, the technicals could be just as distracting as the fundamentals. Some would vow that technicals matter not one bit, and, of course, some would argue, till they're blue in the face, that the fundamentals mean absolutely nothing. And, I'm assuming that you pay no attention to the fundamentals, as per your comment above. I, on the other hand, pay attention to everything that I can get my hands on.

I'm glad we're all so different...

Me too!

Great thread. Thanks for the perspectives guys.

[nimblebear]

This market is obscenely overvalued and manipulated. Its really only a matter of time before it rolls over into its proper descent into he**. For just as many technical aids and charts and analyses you wish to use to prove its bullish, I can show you just as many more that indicate bearish. Technicals have been proven useless, as unless you are a golden soothsayer and sage, there is no way possible you can play this market. If you have made some money being long then you've be velly velly lucky. But the same thing that has you in the market could be the same thing that keeps you in when this thing plummets. I GUARANTEE nobody will be able to call the top, and I further guarantee that most will miss the first 15 to 20% down when it was clearly time to short it. Another thing I will guarantee is that we have not seen the lows in the indexes, and that the lows in March will be again breached within your lifetime. Lastly, within the next 18 months you will see massive defaults on debt unlike anyone has ever seen for the past 500 years.

[TechMan]

Me too!

Great thread. Thanks for the perspectives guys.

Love old movies and old TV series, particularly James Garner in The Rockford Files.

Have a great evening, milbank. You're the best.

[selecto]

Well, I'm easy to please. Be quite happy to
be told what just happened.

[milbank]

Merry Christmas nimblebear from one of the "{bleeeep}" who moderate this board.