And, I'm assuming that you pay no attention to the fundamentals, as per your comment above. I, on the other hand, pay attention to everything that I can get my hands on.
Well, not only do I pay attention to fundamentals, as a business owner for over 35 years, I am forced to face them day in and day out on many levels. In fact, I'm in an industry that was sacrificed by trade policies back in 1995. So for me to be bullish to any degree, while I see and feel an entire industry being decimated around me since that time, I myself am amazed that I can keep from screaming as loud as any bear that's either posted here or otherwise.
Fundamental statistics have been quoted for years, and because of this, many folks have lost the ability to create wealth from this same information. I suppose this goes back to the time to where man made his first trade between a spearhead and a stick, or a carcass and a flint, and provided data to show why something was worth more (or less) than before. The beauty though of technical analysis is that everything fundamental, without exception, is based on these same pieces of economic information that are not only known, but what statistically "should happen" given what we've learned from the past. This "analysis of opinion" gives us a way to cheat on what future fundamental expectations (fall out) will or can be given a constant (government stability, etc.).
Now, I don't know how long you've been directly doing this (for me, 38 years), but if you're in this business (or any business) long enough, you'll start to realize that the play is always the same, but the players are always different. It's sort of like fashion...when see kids wearing the same thing you wore when you were his or her age and they call it "new", and you just have to smile as you've seen it all before. Nothing different here too.
Now, you, arb and others are really sticking your collective necks out right now in the face of ever increasing liquidity levels that causes many boats to rise with this same tidal effect. I, for one, highly appreciate your sharing of these views as it provides the board with necessary balance. But your use of already known fundamentals to justify your bearish stances may be hurting your objectivity more than helping to state your case on a public forum. Granted, you might be right, but it's in the area of timing that separates the wheat from the chafe as far as making your points relative to this same wealth creation medium, no less, being sucked into a whirlpool of disenchantment.
On a technical basis, however, there is just too much buoyancy in the marketplace to be looking for a top of any significance at this time. It could be a month from now, or it might be a year from now. Realistically, no one really knows the future be it a human, dog or worm. We can only speculate on this kind of expectation. However, just like in fundamental analysis, there are also constants when it comes to technical analysis as well. And it is from this area from where I come from. I have learned over time to respect the art of Technical Analysis as being of utmost importance in trying to separate the emotion that distractions cause (the wheat) from what's truly consequential (the chafe) in bettering ones trading account's bottom line. If things change, I will share that as well as I believe it's important to make as much money as we can, when we can. Whether prices move higher or lower makes absolutely no difference to me (nor it should to anyone else) as we have many products out there these days that can take advantage of any or all future situations that are presented.
I hope you took this post in the positive spirit in which it was intended, and may 2010 be profitable year for you and for everyone reading this.
Fib
