33 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Thanks for the compliment, I try to read everything you post too... We may stretch further, but I thought 1020-1120 would be trading range for the first quarter at least and perhaps one more high later in the summer if the market rolls over earlier in May etc. I also see 1140 as a possibility due to some of the weekly levels I am watching and I also see higher if 1140 is hit. I put my stops around 1135 or so and waiting. I reduced about 30% of my cost basis on my put spreads this week since I sold a lot of premium from last week (unless we sell severely in the next 2 sessions). I think we may actually shoot down on Thu a bit though...

Edited by arbman, 29 December 2009 - 06:43 PM.

[zoropb]

Hey D I was just thinking wouldn't 1143 on Jan 6 like 09 Jan 6 943 be pretty sick

[zoropb]

Thanks for the compliment, I try to read everything you post too...

We may stretch further, but I thought 1020-1120 would be trading range for the first quarter at least and perhaps one more high later in the summer if the market rolls over earlier in May etc. I also see 1140 as a possibility due to some of the weekly levels I am watching and I also see higher if 1140 is hit. I put my stops around 1135 or so and waiting. I reduced about 30% of my cost basis on my put spreads this week since I sold a lot of premium from last week (unless we sell severely in the next 2 sessions). I think we may actually shoot down on Thu a bit though...

Arbs I stopped hedging and fooling around with cute etf /future tricks back in Jan. I find I have less to think about during battle and dump or buy increase and decrease the contracts on probability and have increased my weekly % by a serious amount since.

I respect your opinion arbs and I know we are close. It just looks like we creep a bit more but we'll see what happens.

[arbman]

Arbs I stopped hedging and fooling around with cute etf /future tricks back in Jan. I find I have less to think about during battle and dump or buy increase and decrease the contracts on probability and have increased my weekly % by a serious amount since.

I respect your opinion arbs and I know we are close. It just looks like we creep a bit more but we'll see what happens.

Selling premium is easier than guessing the low volume noise here imho... Neither 2008 or 2009 were not definitely the years you would want to get too exotic and stuck that way!

[zoropb]

Arbs I stopped hedging and fooling around with cute etf /future tricks back in Jan. I find I have less to think about during battle and dump or buy increase and decrease the contracts on probability and have increased my weekly % by a serious amount since.

I respect your opinion arbs and I know we are close. It just looks like we creep a bit more but we'll see what happens.

Selling premium is easier than guessing the low volume noise here imho... Neither 2008 or 2009 were not definitely the years you would want to get too exotic and stuck that way!

These two weeks never fails to be nuts and extrapolating anything from a chart but an artsy guess at best is all one can do arbs. These two years were something for the record books. Man what a crazy ride but a lovely one. I feel like a kid when they ask a parent after ridding the roller coaster ...can we ride it again.

[zoropb]

btw just dumped the after hours 10% but from 1122.25 for almost a few not in the mood to battle for crumbs.

[thespookyone]

Hey Z, nice to see your targets. I've had roughly the same. I like a drop here to 1112 ES, followed by a move to 1146. The scenario I was using then had a drop to 1124 followed by a final advance to 1162. A caveat here, though-the market appears MUCH weaker than I expected, and I'm beginning to wonder if the move to 1146 caps it. I won't jump the gun, but it IS front and center in my thoughts-and I'll have both eyes wide open on the structure of the drop from 1146 Good trading to you, my friend!

[zoropb]

Hey Z, nice to see your targets. I've had roughly the same. I like a drop here to 1112 ES, followed by a move to 1146. The scenario I was using then had a drop to 1124 followed by a final advance to 1162. A caveat here, though-the market appears MUCH weaker than I expected, and I'm beginning to wonder if the move to 1146 caps it. I won't jump the gun, but it IS front and center in my thoughts-and I'll have both eyes wide open on the structure of the drop from 1146

Good trading to you, my friend!

Spooky yeah 1113+- es is likely it is about 1118+- SPX I just do not feel like killing myself for the last 5 or so points when I think there is another 30 up likely coming right after. This morning I killed it as I did yesterday. Now odds for VST are changing to long by tomorrow or next morning. I will relax until the long odds show up for a very small position but with 2 to 1 odds for next 2 months against longs now....I wont get aggressive like I did this morning's shorts.



Spooks as you well know if you do not change quickly as things change you get relieved of your change.

[arbman]

These two weeks never fails to be nuts and extrapolating anything from a chart but an artsy guess at best is all one can do arbs. These two years were something for the record books. Man what a crazy ride but a lovely one. I feel like a kid when they ask a parent after ridding the roller coaster ...can we ride it again.

The odds favor you will get to ride at least the next best thing...

[arbman]

I never look in the rear view mirror as the market almost always has a way of kicking your butt when you feel comfy in a fractal.

Z, btw, I only trade the repetitions, it is more scientific that way!

The players change the game remains the same, clean, rinse, repeat!