32 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Please vote

[arbman]

NAV, I voted as "I am a new bear. Initiating positions here." since I basically remain neutral and sell short every time we hit a new high and see whether that was it, if the market does not take the lows of the previous day by the next days' close, I usually rehedge... I actually rolled some of my positions to higher strikes too... I am very conservative since we are yet to top and all trends are still rising although the breadth divergence is becoming more and more visible now... I think you are a bear as much as your bet and I tend to ride with the futures up and with the put spreads down, and nobody should be mistaken that I am doing this with ease. I have a lot of slippage and bad timing intraday that I cover it up with the credit spreads I sell on a regular basis at lower or higher strikes outside of the volatility range... These things can blow up easily if you do not watch them, it is hard (and probably wrong) to be a bear here, but I have to follow my system that made me money over the years and manage the money the best I can in the mean time. My system has been telling for about a week that the I/T correction of importance is around the corner [edit: and topping] since the middle of December and I've been trying to pick a top of this beast since 1115-1125 zone, it has been 20 points, enough already!

Edited by arbman, 11 January 2010 - 11:57 AM.

[NAV]

NAV, I voted as "I am a new bear. Initiating positions here." since I basically remain neutral and sell short every time we hit a new high and see whether that was it, if the market does not take the lows of the previous day by the next days' close, I usually rehedge... I actually rolled some of my positions to higher strikes too... I am very conservative since we are yet to top and all trends are still rising although the breadth divergence is becoming more and more visible now... I think you are a bear as much as your bet and I tend to ride with the futures up and with the put spreads down, and nobody should be mistaken that I am doing this with ease. I have a lot of slippage and bad timing intraday that I cover it up with the credit spreads I sell on a regular basis at lower or higher strikes outside of the volatility range... These things can blow up easily if you do not watch them, it is hard (and probably wrong) to be a bear here, but I have to follow my system that made me money over the years and manage the money the best I can in the mean time. My system has been telling for about a week that the I/T correction of importance is around the corner [edit: and topping] since the middle of December and I've been trying to pick a top of this beast since 1115-1125 zone, it has been 20 points, enough already!

Fair enough.

[lambro]

Its all relative to your trade plan, what are the set-ups and signals you use to go short?, and on what time frame? that is really the issue how do you place your stops and manage targets? (filter is: in a rising trend with no recent previous structure) It would be a much more telling survey to find out A) how many people actually have a trade plan how many people have back tested and forward tested the plan, and know expectancy and max draw down relative to ATR C) what specific repeatable set-ups and ensuing signals are being used, with the key being repeatable, hence zero news, zero fundamentals D) what type of position management and target strategy is being used

[arbman]

lambro, if you can find a repeatable market example to this market, JUST ONE, let me know, I am listening all ears... This is the most govt supported and broker/dealer manipulated market of all times. There is absolutely nothing you can really compare to when it comes to trading this market. I can only rely on my momentum and cycle tools. I run comps all the time, there is really no historical precedents to the volatility structure of the Nov-Dec trading for example. It resembles a bit to late 2006, but that's about it...

Edited by arbman, 11 January 2010 - 12:54 PM.

[tommyt]

Please vote

has the government capitulated is the REAL question. I own a bunch of premium, so I guess that puts me in the bear camp...unless we get a blowoff. These nickel moves aren't working for the juice. The mkt is VERY weak today. Why? after seeing this go around this weekend, I'd say its weak for a Monday so far:

Since the March 9th, the Dow has had 30 “up” Mondays (or Tuesdays after a Monday holiday) out of a possible 43. That’s equal to 70 percent. And 16 of the past 18 Mondays being “up” (I just mentioned) equals 89 percent. Then incredibly, 80 percent of all the point-gains since March 9th came on those 30 Monday up-days. Read that last line again, it’s truly amazing.


Don't know as to the accuracy of the stats.

Edited by tommyt, 11 January 2010 - 12:59 PM.

[fib_1618]

although the breadth divergence is becoming more and more visible now

Example?

The mkt is VERY weak today.

How so?

Fib

[dasein]

Hey Tom didnt someone post a study that showed that almost all of the gains in the past few months came from the overnighht session - and concurrently buying the open of the day session every day would have lost a lot of money? guess u can combine the two if actually most of mondays gains were like today - gaps up.

[tommyt]

although the breadth divergence is becoming more and more visible now

Example?

The mkt is VERY weak today.

How so?

Fib

read the post.

[fib_1618]

read the post.

I did...just because it's flat it's weak?

Come on...you're better than that.

Fib