Bearish capitulation
#1
Posted 11 January 2010 - 11:18 AM
#2
Posted 11 January 2010 - 11:53 AM
Edited by arbman, 11 January 2010 - 11:57 AM.
#3
Posted 11 January 2010 - 12:02 PM
NAV, I voted as "I am a new bear. Initiating positions here." since I basically remain neutral and sell short every time we hit a new high and see whether that was it, if the market does not take the lows of the previous day by the next days' close, I usually rehedge... I actually rolled some of my positions to higher strikes too... I am very conservative since we are yet to top and all trends are still rising although the breadth divergence is becoming more and more visible now... I think you are a bear as much as your bet and I tend to ride with the futures up and with the put spreads down, and nobody should be mistaken that I am doing this with ease. I have a lot of slippage and bad timing intraday that I cover it up with the credit spreads I sell on a regular basis at lower or higher strikes outside of the volatility range... These things can blow up easily if you do not watch them, it is hard (and probably wrong) to be a bear here, but I have to follow my system that made me money over the years and manage the money the best I can in the mean time. My system has been telling for about a week that the I/T correction of importance is around the corner [edit: and topping] since the middle of December and I've been trying to pick a top of this beast since 1115-1125 zone, it has been 20 points, enough already!
Fair enough.
#4
Posted 11 January 2010 - 12:30 PM
http://www.youtube.c...radingAuthority
http://www.thetradingauthority.com
#5
Posted 11 January 2010 - 12:53 PM
Edited by arbman, 11 January 2010 - 12:54 PM.
#6
Posted 11 January 2010 - 12:54 PM
Please vote
has the government capitulated is the REAL question. I own a bunch of premium, so I guess that puts me in the bear camp...unless we get a blowoff. These nickel moves aren't working for the juice. The mkt is VERY weak today. Why? after seeing this go around this weekend, I'd say its weak for a Monday so far:
Since the March 9th, the Dow has had 30 “up” Mondays (or Tuesdays after a Monday holiday) out of a possible 43. That’s equal to 70 percent. And 16 of the past 18 Mondays being “up” (I just mentioned) equals 89 percent. Then incredibly, 80 percent of all the point-gains since March 9th came on those 30 Monday up-days. Read that last line again, it’s truly amazing.
Don't know as to the accuracy of the stats.
Edited by tommyt, 11 January 2010 - 12:59 PM.
#7
Posted 11 January 2010 - 01:11 PM
Example?although the breadth divergence is becoming more and more visible now
How so?The mkt is VERY weak today.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#8
Posted 11 January 2010 - 01:15 PM
klh
#9
Posted 11 January 2010 - 01:16 PM
Example?although the breadth divergence is becoming more and more visible now
How so?The mkt is VERY weak today.
Fib
read the post.
#10
Posted 11 January 2010 - 01:18 PM
I did...just because it's flat it's weak?read the post.
Come on...you're better than that.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions