Edited by arbman, 17 February 2010 - 08:03 PM.
Rally failing?
Started by
arbman
, Feb 17 2010 08:02 PM
25 replies to this topic
#1
arbman
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 08:02 PM
Both Euro and Gold are getting sold too much in after hours for any rally to sustain much further. I have been a gold bull since last week and I have been vocal about it this week, but the action is not bullish anymore unless we get overnight reversals from here and these are simply stop runs. The volume is too much to be a low volume stop run though. We should get a last spike, but I am not really sure we will see much north of 1100 before March on SPX. I think the rates going higher quickly ruined further bullish setups, but I think we can give the benefit of the doubt for one more day. After all this is February and the month is likely to close lower than higher...
#2
porsche911sg
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 08:25 PM
Probably arban,I have increased my short position.Both Euro and Gold are getting sold too much in after hours for any rally to sustain much further. I have been a gold bull since last week and I have been vocal about it this week, but the action is not bullish anymore unless we get overnight reversals from here and these are simply stop runs. The volume is too much to be a low volume stop run though. We should get a last spike, but I am not really sure we will see much north of 1100 before March on SPX. I think the rates going higher quickly ruined further bullish setups, but I think we can give the benefit of the doubt for one more day. After all this is February and the month is likely to close lower than higher...
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!
#3
IYB
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 08:37 PM
Pullback Thursday, big ramp on Friday. Jmho. Regards, DBoth Euro and Gold are getting sold too much in after hours for any rally to sustain much further. I have been a gold bull since last week and I have been vocal about it this week, but the action is not bullish anymore unless we get overnight reversals from here and these are simply stop runs. The volume is too much to be a low volume stop run though. We should get a last spike, but I am not really sure we will see much north of 1100 before March on SPX. I think the rates going higher quickly ruined further bullish setups, but I think we can give the benefit of the doubt for one more day. After all this is February and the month is likely to close lower than higher...
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#4
CHAx
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 09:08 PM
I have to agree Arb. Today the hourly charts signaled the daily uptrend in the dollar is still intact. Broad indexes to decline.
Edited by CHAx, 17 February 2010 - 09:09 PM.
#5
arbman
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 09:09 PM
Pullback Thursday, big ramp on Friday. Jmho. Regards, D
There is probably a motivation to scare the folks to unload over the next 2 days, most algorithmic stuff must be pretty much conditioned now and they won't like the euro and gold going down together. You will never know, it may work. For now my stuff is at the borderline, if they force a bit more, it will fail...
BTW, the option strikes are way too heavy, especially the index options... Everything is centered around 1100, given that we may simply pull back only to snap back to 1100, but not much higher. If this happens, than this was an expiration manipulation and we should head lower after the expirations quickly. Due to the heavy open interest, south of 1080-1085 or so can still trigger a melt down...
My guess is February is not the best month to start the rallies, so next week can still fail in its last few days...
#6
cgnx
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 10:58 PM
I think its crazy to not be in gold. Why try to play the zigs and zags? This is too good a set up to miss. You'll find the only one you will outsmart trying to brainiac this, is yourself. Stay long for the next decade or so. You'll make a fortune.
The latest news of IMF selling is not important. Gold could be up by morn. I gotta say though gold held up exceptionally well today. The psychotic break away from any currency could be at anytime. This is a party unto itself.
If it can be cornered, it will.
#7
xe2dy
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#8
goldswinger
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 11:32 PM
Speaking of Gold ...
http://www.zerohedge...arket-gold-sale
How much Tungsten does the IMF have?, I am just wondering what percentage of ther Tungsten holdings are being sold off?
How coincidental that this announcement (more a reminder as it had been announced before, this is old news!) happens when gold is at a key inflection point in its charts (having completed what appears to be an ABC correction....... this tells me we go to at least 1028 -1030 to test the breakout point.
GS.
#9
arbman
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 11:45 PM
Just asking... I don't trade the news... Did such announcements over the past few years were able to create more than a day or two hick ups? I mean literally broke the trend? Honestly, if I had been running IMF, I would basically slowly sell into the buying rather than getting the worst price by pre-announcing my selling since the market will want to discount the news... Kind of wondering, TIA...
(edit: although many appeared to hit the panic button, I bought the sell off, but I am still wondering whether I am the sucker who is about to hold the bag)
GS, do you know whether they were able to finally trace the source of the tungsten bars? IMF never appears to run out of gold... 
Edited by arbman, 17 February 2010 - 11:49 PM.
#10
goldswinger
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Posted 17 February 2010 - 11:56 PM
Just asking... I don't trade the news... Did such announcements over the past few years were able to create more than a day or two hick ups? I mean literally broke the trend? Honestly, if I had been running IMF, I would basically slowly sell into the buying rather than getting the worst price by pre-announcing my selling since the market will want to discount the news... Kind of wondering, TIA...
(edit: although many appeared to hit the panic button, I bought the sell off, but I am still wondering whether I am the sucker who is about to hold the bag)
GS, do you know whether they were able to finally trace the source of the tungsten bars? IMF never appears to run out of gold...
Don't know for sure, the news or rumours vanished all of a sudden and the only way to find out is by punching a hole in each bar. As to the amount of gold they own , that triggered my question.
Also, you have to believe the IMF is working with Tim Geithner and they want gold supressed. So, their timing looks suspicious, we all know news don't really trigger moves although it appears they do.....there probaby was a concerted sell effort shortly after those "news". You have to wonder, that was old news......it had been announced before.... this was more like "we told you so and you keep bidding it higher!!!".
GS.
