25 replies to this topic

[arbman]

The tungsten news was apparently a rumor.

I think they are trying to slow down the gold's trend as I have shown, IMF and Tim are on the same side. It was going mini-parabolic, their selling may be legitimate in the after hours that seemed to be creating a buying opportunity for a few days, but I am not sure they can sustain it against the Bernanke's printing job!!!

BTW, the news adds strength to USD which seems to be not so Euro friendly... Neither the stocks...

Edited by arbman, 18 February 2010 - 12:18 AM.

[CHAx]

They will do everything in their power to contain gold prices through the coming sovereign debt defaults. If everyone runs to gold at the same time, the central banks will lose control.

[arbman]

They will do everything in their power to contain gold prices through the coming sovereign debt defaults. If everyone runs to gold at the same time, the central banks will lose control.

I think gold will resume the trend after tomorrow, I don't know how much lower this will shoot it lower. The news seems to be priced in at the trend line, any lower should break the trend line, but then USD will also gain too much against Euro. If it doesn't go lower tomorrow much, then it will go back up quickly...

I was hoping to see the 1135-1145 zone on this trade, I was not getting greedy there... Just a double top or so...

Edit: btw, if you know they are trying to slow down the trend of gold and they are printing and gold is not going down because of a deflation, but because of their price control efforts, you cannot possibly be bearish on stocks, at least for very short term...

Edited by arbman, 18 February 2010 - 12:59 AM.

[IYB]

Pullback Thursday, big ramp on Friday. Jmho. Regards, D

There is probably a motivation to scare the folks to unload over the next 2 days, most algorithmic stuff must be pretty much conditioned now and they won't like the euro and gold going down together. You will never know, it may work. For now my stuff is at the borderline, if they force a bit more, it will fail...

BTW, the option strikes are way too heavy, especially the index options... Everything is centered around 1100, given that we may simply pull back only to snap back to 1100, but not much higher. If this happens, than this was an expiration manipulation and we should head lower after the expirations quickly. Due to the heavy open interest, south of 1080-1085 or so can still trigger a melt down...

My guess is February is not the best month to start the rallies, so next week can still fail in its last few days...

From my vantage point it has nothing to do with motivation; everything to do with just the way rallies always unfold- two steps forward, one step back, then two more forward, etc. Anyhow, NYMO and NAMO are logging new highs. SPX and NAZ will most assuredly make new highs next week. Just my pure read on how markets work- nothing to do with manipulations or motivations. Just price analysis. Period. Good trading, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&i=p55921994191&a=190421680&r=867.png

Edited by IYB, 18 February 2010 - 01:53 AM.

[arbman]

The breadth plurality will continue to lift the market up in the intermediate term, I totally agree. However, the market rallied on materials and energy leadership and it seems to be shot down tomorrow. The leadership is still the key for higher prices, it won't go too far with energy and materials. In the short run, we may have one more round of sell off left until early March, it may not amount to much though, we'll see... This IMF selling of the gold disrupted the markets, perhaps for a day, but it did as it pushes the USD up and puts tremendous pressure on already weak Euro... This will shake out a lot of speculators from the markets, then perhaps it will take off easier. As I said, they may also break the market lower while doing so, this is a fragile expiration month...

Edited by arbman, 18 February 2010 - 02:23 AM.

[arbman]

BTW D, the rally during the expiration week back to 1100 (SPX) is no coincidence, I am not saying necessarily a manipulation of the operators, but the rally snapped back to 1100, the neutral expiration level. Tomorrow, if everything shoots down in the morning, perhaps it will be a reload tipping the balance north of 1100 for friday.

[IYB]

BTW D, the rally during the expiration week back to 1100 (SPX) is no coincidence, I am not saying necessarily a manipulation of the operators, but the rally snapped back to 1100, the neutral expiration level. Tomorrow, if everything shoots down in the morning, perhaps it will be a reload tipping the balance north of 1100 for friday.

Hey Arb. All I'm sayin' is that there are certain price relationships to internal momentum that can be counted on, and one of those is that that price highs will follow momentum highs. Every single time. Thus this weeks momentum (NYMO and NAMO) highs will lead to next weeks price highs in SPX and NAZ. As sure as night follows day.

Don't know nothin' about manipulations and motivations, and non-coincidences and the rest. I just know a bullish price momentum pattern when I see it, and what it means for SPX. And the price momentum/price trend is unmistakably UP. Jmvho. Regards, D

[melonseed]

I am prepared for a failed rally @1100 but so far the downside has no momentum. I remain a bull unless I see the butcher with a bloody cleaver. For now I do think the upside will clear 1100. Most probably tonight.

[iloli way]

Just my pure read on how markets work- nothing to do with manipulations or motivations. Just price analysis. Period.

My salutes to you my fellowship ta ta pure TA price reader.

I find sensationalism no place in trading, not with my own money, period. But I also sense that people always like to read tabloid style of ra ra cheer-leading krapps, even in this business. Maybe some only trade with other people's money or even just a book talker, a self-fulfilled egomaniac or some ticket sellers. NOT saying anyone here on this board is (not even myself, LOL), just express my behavioral science point of view on reading the general internet stuff. That makes pure TA guys even more harder to find. You are well respected here, need no my added extras, I do have the decency to chip in my two cents.

Arbman, I always read your analysis, or else I'll turn into one of those trading robots.

Edited by iloli, 18 February 2010 - 04:55 AM.

[arbman]

Let's get the next high and then decide... I expect one more high at least too, perhaps it will zoom up and the trend will last much longer... For now, I didn't like the leadership and the factors that supported that leadership kind of deteriorated a bit...