30 replies to this topic

[espresso]

Strong Us$ is playing strange games in the minds of Americans, just when the strength is about to become at least doubtful. It's a world house of cards and US usually is a leader... American bullishness is out of place imho

[TechMan]

Rember techman you did well on your research last tyear that many big player were short, they are still short these big player don't trade the market in and out. they will leave their position for months if not years so once a big pool shorts the stop and wait for a month maybe a year or two they get ten times their money and walk off the table. maybe they go long for months.

I see what you're saying now.

I don't know if you'd recall the Nasdaq 100 Commercial & Non-Commercial Traders spread chart that I had posted in one of my analyses last year. Remember how large that spread was back then? That was one of the reasons I thought the market had topped out in December. Then, the Dubai bailout skewed everything.

Well, right now that spread is almsot as tight as the beginning of November bottom.

I'll try to post an updated chart later. Right now, I'm pretty exhausted.

Good night, porsche911sg.

[Tor]

Boy! It sure is quiet here tonight...

Tomorrow morning my bear friends should get a chance to do whatever they have to do to get their house in order. If you had to cut your losses or take some profits from your short positiions, that'll be the time to do it. Over the past 10 years, there are only 3 occasions where the market suffered back-to-back losses in the final 2 trading sessions of February. It doesn't take much to guess... Yes, they're 2001, 2008, and 2009 - all MAJOR market tops.

Unless you believe this time it's as major a market top as in those 3 years, you may get one shot to re-position your portfolio and your trading strategy.



Enjoy and Happy Bears Day tomorrow!!!

What a jerk! LOL

[espresso]

US unemployment moving map...

[cycletimer]

I am FLAT and staying out of the markets for remainder of week/month. There is a Bradley date (Mon,Mar 1st) coupled with numerous cycles all lining up in the first week of March. I will fade whatever action is occurring next week. If we sell off into next week I feel it should be a buy, if we happen to rally (my preferred scenario going into the usual Monday AM rally-time) then I will establish shorts. Let's just say that for once I am not biased either way. I plan to fade the early action/direction next week but I am content with staying neutral in the VST....livin' flat and happy!

[melonseed]

I am seeing a big train wreck coming not often does this situation arise.

I know I am not the only one who sees the train wreck coming...

Nope- you are not the only one by a long shot. In fact, this soon-to-be-upcoming CRASH is the best advertised market collapse I can remember. I've been reading about it here every day for weeks/months now.

Ya, I have been reading and enjoying those crash calls just as much but my entire Feb profits are from longs. As of now i am neutral and staying in cash. Maybe a crash IS coming but it doesn't quite matter. I got lucky going long, pre-crash perhaps.

[arbman]

Rember techman you did well on your research last tyear that many big player were short, they are still short these big player don't trade the market in and out. they will leave their position for months if not years so once a big pool shorts the stop and wait for a month maybe a year or two they get ten times their money and walk off the table. maybe they go long for months.

You know when money leaves the emerging market... that trails set off the down trend. You can check the past history at major tops they leave in droves. Just follow the money trail.

Porsche, what you are saying is true, only they don't walk away with 10 times their money. The big money actually can only make 100% on their short selling in the underlying instruments. In futures and other leveraged instruments, they can make big money, but mostly they used the futures to hedge their underlying holdings rather than to speculate... Remember they are the ones buying and selling and hence moving the prices of the underlying securities... As your money grows, you returns actually shrink, naturally, as you become the market...

[porsche911sg]

Rember techman you did well on your research last tyear that many big player were short, they are still short these big player don't trade the market in and out. they will leave their position for months if not years so once a big pool shorts the stop and wait for a month maybe a year or two they get ten times their money and walk off the table. maybe they go long for months.

You know when money leaves the emerging market... that trails set off the down trend. You can check the past history at major tops they leave in droves. Just follow the money trail.

Porsche, what you are saying is true, only they don't walk away with 10 times their money. The big money actually can only make 100% on their short selling in the underlying instruments. In futures and other leveraged instruments, they can make big money, but mostly they used the futures to hedge their underlying holdings rather than to speculate... Remember they are the ones buying and selling and hence moving the prices of the underlying securities... As your money grows, you returns actually shrink, naturally, as you become the market...

I know speculative hedge fund. one of fund short citi, fannie and couple all the way down before shorts we outlawed. they held position and option for two years,.. some are hedge some are not.

Am currently runnig a private hedge fund now. I seldom hedge for my own but now i do some hedging if the trade goes wrong some loses can be minimise. I hedge my short with longs on es at 1051-1055. glad i did was just expect this 67% retracement. So if i am wrong i got some points on the other trade to cover the lost.

my yearly target is 300% returns that's all. ten time is super bonus which happen in case likely 911 if you get luck and short before it happen

[dTraderB]

Boy! It sure is quiet here tonight...

Tomorrow morning my bear friends should get a chance to do whatever they have to do to get their house in order. If you had to cut your losses or take some profits from your short positiions, that'll be the time to do it. Over the past 10 years, there are only 3 occasions where the market suffered back-to-back losses in the final 2 trading sessions of February. It doesn't take much to guess... Yes, they're 2001, 2008, and 2009 - all MAJOR market tops.

Unless you believe this time it's as major a market top as in those 3 years, you may get one shot to re-position your portfolio and your trading strategy.



Enjoy and Happy Bears Day tomorrow!!!

Thanks for your gift.

[porsche911sg]

Boy! It sure is quiet here tonight...

Tomorrow morning my bear friends should get a chance to do whatever they have to do to get their house in order. If you had to cut your losses or take some profits from your short positiions, that'll be the time to do it. Over the past 10 years, there are only 3 occasions where the market suffered back-to-back losses in the final 2 trading sessions of February. It doesn't take much to guess... Yes, they're 2001, 2008, and 2009 - all MAJOR market tops.

Unless you believe this time it's as major a market top as in those 3 years, you may get one shot to re-position your portfolio and your trading strategy.



Enjoy and Happy Bears Day tomorrow!!!

Thanks for your gift.

A bit small... big gifts coming. sit and wait.