23 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Btw, in August 2009, its hard to say whether the high was August 5 or August 12. If you count it as August 5, then that 2 day drop goes out of the study (becomes 8 days) and the average decline is 7.5 days

Okay looking under a microscope since there were a series of nearly equal intra day highs in early August, 2009 I see that the precise high was August 9 at 1018.00 and the low 6 days later, August 17, at 978.61. So that still means the "average period" from high to low in my study is 7 trading days, which then counts out here to "turnaround Tuesday" April 6, and 5% measures to 1121. Nothing magical about those times and levels - just a rough guide as to what the hypothetical "average decline" under these circumstances would look like if the SSSS comes Monday....irl anything from about 1095 to 1145 is reasonable. We'll use trin, ticks, and other very short term measures to try get as close as we can for covering shorts, but will wait for an SSBS to get fully long again.

[rotrot]

NDX 'trader' chart, SPX 'trader' chart, NYSI 'trend indicator', & NASI 'trend indicator'...

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=514143

[arbman]

D, the dominant cycle at the moment is around 38-42 days, if the lows come in late this can happen as late as next Monday, so your 5 day scenario can indeed play. I am looking for 38-40 trading days of 2-3 days of decline at this juncture, but definitely below last Monday's lows. Thanks for your analysis and sharing... BTW, the decline has already started 2 days ago with the intraday new highs, did you consider this as part of your timing? Just asking, TIA. Regards, ARB.

Edited by arbman, 28 March 2010 - 08:54 PM.

[IYB]

D, the dominant cycle at the moment is around 38-42 days, if the lows come in late this can happen as late as next Monday, so your 5 day scenario can indeed play. I am looking for 38-40 trading days of 2-3 days of decline at this juncture, but definitely below last Monday's lows. Thanks for your analysis and sharing... BTW, the decline has already started 2 days ago with the intraday new highs, did you consider this as part of your timing? Just asking, TIA. Regards, ARB.

Thanks ARB. Yes, counted Thursday as intra day high, then 7 trading days later is Tuesday April 7....and of course the "average of 7 days" starts from whatever becomes the actual high. It's possible that we have another try at the highs before the decline begins....If so, it'll rally with out me tomorrow. But that's fine --I'll be patient and wait for my signal. Best, D

Edited by IYB, 28 March 2010 - 11:10 PM.