23 replies to this topic

[IYB]

gap down below 1161 and we jump the creek and head down into the hole. To mix metaphors.

Might not be a mixed metaphor, ARB. There could be a hole on the other side of the creek....and I suspect there is.

[CallMeIshmael]

one of the keys now are the financials...they have been ripping, and look set to pause:


#1

I'm not a big fan of FAZ, but its setup zoon:

#2

Take a look at FAZ with the Ichimoku clouds:
http://stockcharts.c...p...8937&r=6425

[Rogerdodger]

Don, have you looked at mid August '09 as a comparison to now? So much of this market (and the 7 sentinels) look like that time frame. The only thing missing is the dip (Which I am patiently waiting for.) Did you get a sell back then and then a quick reversal? One difference is the NAHL and NYHL which are extended down a bit more now than mid August. However I wonder if that's not a reflection from coming out of the crash bottom just a year ago.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 26 March 2010 - 08:57 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Look closely at the MCO just before that 2 day drop and the August low.
Today only 77 issues separated up from down.
We could be below -150 in 1 or 2 days for a potential buy.
We need a big drop and a high trin.

[arbman]

Roger in my measures your buying opp is coming...

gap down below 1161 and we jump the creek and head down into the hole. To mix metaphors.

Might not be a mixed metaphor, ARB. There could be a hole on the other side of the creek....and I suspect there is.

Indeed

D, do you have SSS today? TIA

Edited by arbman, 26 March 2010 - 11:10 PM.

[bearish04]

Hey IYB,
So on the context of things, its not the sell signal yet??

B

[IYB]

Hey IYB,
So on the context of things, its not the sell signal yet??

B

Correct- NO SIGNAL YET. But one small down day would produce the sell, in all likelihood. RD, I'l study those numbers and get back to you. Regards, D

[bearish04]

what i mean to ask IYB is that do u see a change in the character of the market from a bull to a bear or would you wait for a second signal to short this thing.

[IYB]

what i mean to ask IYB is that do u see a change in the character of the market from a bull to a bear or would you wait for a second signal to short this thing.

Gotcha Bearish04. No it's still clearly a primary bull market, and the decline will be a buying op, not selling op as I see it. But in the short run, I'll be shorting when we get the SSSS - will probably only stay short for anywhere from just 2 days to maybe 2 weeks. Then I'll be looking to buy the leaders with both hands. I'll try to get back Saturday afternoon with more thoughts on what the decline might look like- though obviously that part will be mostly guesswork from studying past fractals and such...

As far as the bigger picture here, I am in total agreement (scary thought?) with RD and with Terry Laundry on a May internal high (momentum peak) and an August external or final price high for this entire bull cycle. But, that being said, of course, I'll let the market tell it's own story and just call it out using the tools I always use. Regards, D

[IYB]

Don, have you looked at mid August '09 as a comparison to now?
So much of this market (and the 7 sentinels) look like that time frame.
The only thing missing is the dip (Which I am patiently waiting for.)
Did you get a sell back then and then a quick reversal?

One difference is the NAHL and NYHL which are extended down a bit more now than mid August.
However I wonder if that's not a reflection from coming out of the crash bottom just a year ago.

Roger- I went back and looked at every example I could find in this decade of a market that is making new highs with NYMO negative- that is examples where a rally is so extended that the internal breadth readings have flipped to negative in that the 19-day EMA of net advances is below the 39 EMA even while SPX continues to log new intra day highs for the entire cycle, and here's what I find: {and btw, I'm instructed NOT to refer to these slices of market history as fractals! }

The declines that followed ranged fro 3% to 7% average 5%
The declines that followed ranged from 2 days to 9 days, average 6.5 days
The NYMO bottomed between about -60 and -80
A Seven Sentinels Buy Signal followed shortly thereafter - within about 3-4 days on average

Btw, in August 2009, its hard to say whether the high was August 5 or August 12. If you count it as August 5, then that 2 day drop goes out of the study (becomes 8 days) and the average decline is 7.5 days

So now, assuming that we follow thru to an SSSS immediately from here (a good bet but not guaranteed, of course), then I get an expected decline to 1121 (+ or -) by April 7, 2010 (+ or -).

But clearly, I'm really just guessing. We'll watch and listen to the GPS as we head down that highway, and hope the batteries stay properly charged.

Regards, D

Edited by IYB, 27 March 2010 - 06:52 PM.