TTheory vs Hurst Cycles
#1
Posted 12 July 2010 - 08:35 AM
Here's an analysis showing past 18 month (80 week cycle lows). The March 2009 low was the last 18 month low.
http://www.traders-t...rt=#entry437989
Without diving into a full Hurst analysis, the current Hurst cycles status for the $SPX is as follows (this assumes that the 18 month cycle has not bottomed):
9 month pointing down
18 month pointing down
4.5 year pointing down
9 year pointing down
This brings me to Terry's latest T Theory observations. I've taken the liberty to indicate all 18 month cycle lows on this $SPX vs $NYAD chart posted this week. The thing that struck me was how modest the correction appears in terms of the $NYAD plot. All 18 month cycles lows in the last decade were preceeded by a touch or break of the moving average shown. I don't know how this chart was derived. But it appears to me that a significant low is still ahead based on this chart.
cheers,
john
#2
Posted 12 July 2010 - 08:56 AM
#3
Posted 12 July 2010 - 09:26 AM
In yesterday's update, Terry sounded very iffy about the potential of much of a rally into late August.
However since his volume oscillator did show the potential, he displayed it.
Often he speculates about "potentials" in the future and some take it that he was bullish.
I think I heard him say: "We don't know."
In another month, the top of his price envelope will be nearer 1120ish.
I believe he has a bearish T followed right behind by a bullish one, followed by a bearish one.
The kind of action you would expect in a weak market.
Get some popcorn and enjoy the movie.
CHART
Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 July 2010 - 09:38 AM.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#4
Posted 12 July 2010 - 09:44 AM
#5
Posted 12 July 2010 - 10:04 AM
I believe he has a bearish T followed right behind by a bullish one, followed by a bearish one.
#6
Posted 12 July 2010 - 11:01 AM
Nav why are you laughing? I would say that has high probabilityI believe he has a bearish T followed right behind by a bullish one, followed by a bearish one.
Priceless
John nice work.
Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.
#7
Posted 12 July 2010 - 07:47 PM
What happened to your bp shorts? dont see why its going downINDU hit 200e at 10217 and I sold my longs.
Will start to scale shorts today and Tues mkt... lookin for Friday lows.
#8
Posted 13 July 2010 - 02:30 PM