32 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Perhaps I put it a little too negatively. I just wanted to illustrate what I believe the market to be, a poker game. And I'm not saying you (or I) can't win. I wouldn't be playing if I thought that.
i still sense you need an intervention

What I am saying is there is a lot of game playing going on here and staying too long in a losing trade may be called brave if you win but if you don't the losses can be hard to make up.
ok but why tell me ...? what is to long 24 hrs ? 32 hrs ? a week ?
of course it can be hard to make up ...but lets suck it up a little bit,.. and trade like a pro for a change because 100/200 % even 300% is doable in a market year like this ! come backs are real.


That's why I get out quickly when I find myself in a losing trade. I don't have the confidence to wait out a steep draw down.
then you are not trading with the right tools ... both mentally and technically ... as they can go a long way to trading with more confidence
again i think you need some training or mentoring by someone who trades well.

Once burned, twice shy I guess. Yet I wouldn't have lasted this long if I was a perennial loser. I just play it differently than you. I don't try to call every swing. I don't know how to do that. Maybe you do. I just try to have an overall plan and wait for the market to come into my sights.
now are you contradicting yourself ,.... are you doing what you advise not to do .... waiting in a trade for the market to come to you ... that usually means unprofitably waiting
again i think if you would erase your memory..... and start over with A+ skills it would be an easier road for you to hoe while trading with confidence

When it does I shoot, sometimes using "Kentucky Windage." Until it does I lie by quietly, trying not to spook the prey. As for the card sharps with the green eyeshades and sleeve garters, I always try to live by the gambler's rule, "If you sit down at the table and don't know who the sucker is, it's you." I just try not to be the sucker.

forgive me but as i read you... you are saying subconsciously in mind that you are a sucker who is trying not be.
take a break from the charts focus on your mind ... because the eyes can not see when the mind is cloudy ... i do wish you luck as i offer this as support

Edited by Mr Dev, 08 September 2010 - 05:21 PM.

[SemiBizz]

however my short term indicators are in conflict

Consistent with the IWM signal today... inside day on stronger volume.

So we go to the smaller timeframe scorecards on the 65 min.

if IWM can climb and maintain 63.64 it can test hourly volume high at 64.53 or in hourly $RUT Terms 643.59

[Regent]

Mr. Dev will never make a bad trade. Isnt it obvious? He's a time traveler and already knows all thats gonna take place in the future. How else could he be so prescient??

[rkd80]

CMI do you hear yourself ?

first great traders do not get trapped.

that would be average traders,.. or a newer trader.

great traders don't loose control ... and that's exactly why they are great.

there are many differences between us.... you've obviously been thru the ringer once, struggled and maybe more than others but unfortunately it sounds like
it has put you at a psychologically disadvantage for positioning ahead of the next big move or big win.

as you said you are working against a stacked deck that will not allow you to ever be a bigger winner...(very negative thought process).
but my belief is,.winning is not only for the big boys ... its for the skilled too and maybe that's why i am a winner.

you should think about working beyond your negative gut feelings and develop a stronger traders mind set and self esteem to trade well in the future.
you've said this negative stuff to me before,. ... like you can't win forever ... frankly i don't need to .. i just want to make money instead of lose money..

now are you going to change your negative attitude .... today? or should i just put you on ignore because i'm not going to let your bad luck and bad attitude rub off on me.
your choice my man.

Dev, you're a great trader. That's obvious. But even great traders can get trapped. Bernamke's a great trader too, so is George Soros and they've both got a whole lot more money than you and I have. And they're trying to trap you (us), Bernanke because as a central banker he instinctively hates speculators, they screw up his schemes, Soros because he is a greedy, power mad narcissist who's out to rule the world.

Like you, I once thought I could play the markets like a violin hitting on every swing. For a while I did and made quite a lot of money doing it. Then I got caught on the wrong side of a swing and foolishly, I had bet the farm. I went broke and spent many years trying to recover. During that time I learned to distrust everything I had learned about the market, all the TA, all the rumors and all the fundamentals. I learned that this is a giant poker game and some of the biggest players can stack the deck and bluff, paint the tape, etc., not forever but long enough to break the little guys and the fools. Now I no longer swing for the fences. And I run for the hills when I find I've made a mistake. Yes, I'm a scaredie cat now. I no longer try to scalp every little swing. Now I lie in wait. I wait for the market to come to me. If it doesn't, I don't trade. A good friend of mine, another great trader like you once told me, "There's always time to lose money." I should have listened.

wow -- that is just great stuff Dev. This is beyond technical analysis, this is the whole package baby.

[qqqqtrdr]

forgive me but as i read you... you are saying subconsciously in mind that you are a sucker who is trying not be.
take a break from the charts focus on your mind ... because the eyes can not see when the mind is cloudy ... i do wish you luck as i offer this as support

Sound advice.... If you have a losing trade that your market analysis is wrong. It is better to wait it out until you figure out why your analysis is wrong.... Unfortunately, I don't have a mentor that taught me how to trade, I listened to traders on this board and others who had opinions that were backed up by technical analysis and use a mixture of those analysis.

Many traders look at too few charts and miss important signals in the market... I play medium term... I went long almost 2 weeks ago after going short at the beginning of August... Hopefully, I can give some of my wisdom some of the investors here. However, i do have day job that prevents me from watching the market, so I need a trading algorithm that allows me to check charts on a daily basis... Mr Dev is on a little shorter trading cycle than me.... He is right with trading with 2X funds you should be able to achieve 100 - 200% on your money every year.... I'm not there yet myself, but I am marketing improvement I think, but until you can double your money over 12 months of trading ups and downs you can't really say you know how to trade.

[Gary Smith]

forgive me but as i read you... you are saying subconsciously in mind that you are a sucker who is trying not be.
take a break from the charts focus on your mind ... because the eyes can not see when the mind is cloudy ... i do wish you luck as i offer this as support

Sound advice.... If you have a losing trade that your market analysis is wrong. It is better to wait it out until you figure out why your analysis is wrong.... Unfortunately, I don't have a mentor that taught me how to trade, I listened to traders on this board and others who had opinions that were backed up by technical analysis and use a mixture of those analysis.

Many traders look at too few charts and miss important signals in the market... I play medium term... I went long almost 2 weeks ago after going short at the beginning of August... Hopefully, I can give some of my wisdom some of the investors here. However, i do have day job that prevents me from watching the market, so I need a trading algorithm that allows me to check charts on a daily basis... Mr Dev is on a little shorter trading cycle than me.... He is right with trading with 2X funds you should be able to achieve 100 - 200% on your money every year.... I'm not there yet myself, but I am marketing improvement I think, but until you can double your money over 12 months of trading ups and downs you can't really say you know how to trade.

Sorry to be harsh, but that's absolutely absurd to say "until you can double your money over 12 months of trading ups and downs you can't really say you know how to trade. The only traders who can do that are the nameless and faceless posters on Internet trading boards who couldn't produce a multi-year real money track record if their life depended on it. Are you aware of the returns generated by the best of the hedge fund managers such as the Steve Cohens of the world and the super star traders such as Soros? Are you aware of the returns generated by Buffett to become a billionaire many times over? Are you aware of the monitored returns by Mark Hulbert of the newsletter writers and advisors including the Rydex and Profunds traders? Are you aware of the real money monitored returns from MoniResearch of the trading advisors or the returns of the CTAs? For a home based trader, 100% per year each and every year is pure fantasy unless you are trading a miniscule account and not compounding it. I know one home based trader who has traded $2300 to over $2,100,000 with nary any drawdown along the way but the only 100% years he ever had was when his account was very small. I do know one trader, accounts statements and everything, who at one time did do 100% per year for several years. But last I heard he was driving a cab and broke. One of the primary reasons so many fail at the trading game are unrealistic expectations by the glut of pie-in-the-sky trading claims from Vendorville portraying trading as a easy way to instant riches.

[MikeyG]

Gary is right, working with a small amount you can get doubles and triples but with larger amounts and anything over 30-35% per annum and you are a stud... I have been working as a broker for a few years and my clients would be like a pig in mud if they got any returns above 10% for the past few years per annum, not leveraged monies though... I recently passed the 3 and will be getting a CTA designation to expand my practice...

[qqqqtrdr]

Agreed with client accounts a different trading strategy is needed.. You can't really swing trade long and short to get the good returns. Your forced to balance trading practices and returns of 30% is good. Most of these accounts are being traded actively. It is just buy this stock and that stock. Barry

[Mr Dev]

[quote name='Gary Smith' date='Sep 8 2010, 08:01 PM' post='541787']

Hi GS, i know your post wasn't addressed to me personally but if i may comment on a few things as you did,
as shared discussion can be beneficial for all of us.

Sorry to be harsh, but that's absolutely absurd to say "until you can double your money over 12 months of trading ups and downs you can't really say you know how to trade.
i agree ,.. year over year the markets change in character and within each character there are multiple personalities and thus
these different moods will not always make available these types of gains especially trading a conservative leverage index Etf or fund.
however there are as many ways to play markets as there are players and the door to excellent yearly gains is always wide open.

For a home based trader, 100% per year each and every year is pure fantasy unless you are trading a miniscule account and not compounding it.
not sure what you were trying to explain here but dollars add up according to percentages not the other way around.
amount of dollars plays no part in percentage gains.
percentage gains is one of the best comparison,.. that for the most part levels the comparison playing field.
but yes ,...year over year returns of 100% yoy is a high challenging,.. and great goal but unlikely over a life time of trading !

I know one home based trader who has traded $2300 to over $2,100,000 with nary any drawdown along the way but the only 100% years he ever had was when his account was very small.
this example absolutely does not compute mathematically!!
at some point you must make huge percentage gains to accomplish this in a trading lifetime.
regardless of the error in the example, ...i think traders should stay positive in their expectations and not trade with negative
lowered expectation or limitations based on ones social network or even someone else's network .. why limit ones self?

instead stay positive look a guy like Dan Zanger who took his 10k to 18 million in one year ( over 65,000% if i recall correctly)
basically he said he felt those gains would never be achieved again ... but did he throw in the towel ,.........or lose it all ... far from it !
last i heard he's still doing fantastic ... a fellow so cal trader i might ad.

I do know one trader, accounts statements and everything, who at one time did do 100% per year for several years.
But last I heard he was driving a cab and broke. but was his failure to retire wealthy ... even related to trading ... there are hundreds of ways to lose your fortune ?
One of the primary reasons so many fail at the trading game are unrealistic expectations by the glut of pie-in-the-sky trading claims from Vendorville portraying trading as a easy way to instant riches.
another primary reason is they have yet to discover the complete package that is necessary .

again thank you for sharing your thoughts

Edited by Mr Dev, 09 September 2010 - 12:14 AM.

[Mr Dev]

WOW are you guys kidding me ??
these two things have nothing to do with each other. where did you guys hear this?
now im shocked

Gary is right, working with a small amount you can get doubles and triples but with larger amounts and anything over 30-35% per annum and you are a stud...

I have been working as a broker for a few years and my clients would be like a pig in mud if they got any returns above 10% for the past few years per annum, not leveraged monies though...

I recently passed the 3 and will be getting a CTA designation to expand my practice...

they also say ants don't like salt ! so since i had some ant i put some salt down .. guess what.. my ants ran all over it... kicked it around like a soccer ball ... and thus
i had to use some deadly ant spray !

yeah i listened to what they said ... then i tested it ....guess what... don't blindly accept what other folks think !
think for yourself and run a mathmatical test if necessary

you can take any amount of money and make ten percent on a trade... period !

if you continue to do that same thing 9-10 more times with one dollar or one million dollars you will make more than 100% using compounding.

and Mikey G with all do respect my son,
just because someone becomes licensed ...that doesn't guarantee common sense will follow. as we know common sense is the least common of all senses .
i used to use licensed Realtors to buy real estate ...then i figured out many didn't know a thing about real estate just that they needed to sell it to get a commission.

Edited by Mr Dev, 09 September 2010 - 12:30 AM.