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take a look @ what the junior did last time. i made good scratch in the metals , but i made much more in the miners.
dharma
There's no doubt that if you pick the correct miners and sit on them to near the top, you will make a bundle more than anyone else. No doubt at all. It's much easier said than done, though, as compared to holding the metals.
The nice thing about the metals is you can take on enough leverage through futures (from which, thanks to our irresponsible financial system, one can get about as much leverage as they could ever hope for) to compensate for the fact that on a non-levered basis they usually underperform miners. I know some are not comfortable with trading futures due to concern about the collapse of paper but for those of us that are (or are for the time being...if/when paper gets closer to the brink of collapse we'll have to talk again), it is my preferred method of playing the gold and silver market since the returns are much smoother and can exceed the returns of many miners due to the low margin required for holding gold and silver futures contracts.
Based on what I've seen to this point, I would rather be leveraged long the metals through futures than simply long miners (the latter I find very volatile compared to the returns they provide, and also I do not have time to research...and I know there are many crooks in the biz and many factors one has to look at with each company, so one has to do their homework when buying individual miners). One could consider junior mining ETFs like GDXJ and SIL, though, if one is so inclined to not using futures but still doesn't have time to research individual miners. If I ever have a concern about a collapse in the futures market, I will probably move over to ETFs like these.
I also think we may be seeing a permanent shift as far as how miners are treated. No doubt, they will catch up to the metals at some point by more than they have at least (as they have depressingly underperformed to this point), but clearly many average joes prefer to use the metal ETFs and metal futures to play gold and silver nowadays. In the '70s many people were forced to buy mining companies to get exposure to gold and silver. Today there's many ways to get exposure to gold and silver and one doesn't need to bother to buy individual shares (although, as I said earlier, if you manage to make the right picks you could potentially beat everyone else in terms of returns...much easier said than done, though).
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Regarding phase 3 of this secular bull, I tend to think it will happen after the next eight/nine year cycle low (2016? 2017?)...will probably be a 1-2 year period that is just completely parabolic (think late 1998 to early 2000 in the Nasdaq, or 1979-80 in gold). 2017-2018 is thus approximately when I'm thinking the peak will come but we'll have to wait and see. No one can say for sure but some pretty good guesses can be made. My studies of past commodity bulls indicate that they very commonly last 15-18 years. The last one was ~1965-80 if you use mining stocks as your measure (as gold was not floating until 1970).
you my friend are obviously a pro, and your well thought out plan should be a game changer for you. few realize what this is really about on so many levels.
40 silver in this parabolic right here and folks are looking for the exit. my question is fine, you made good scratch from 4-5 , now where do you put the $$$. the unraveling has not even started yet.
if one goes back and studies charts prior to 1971 volatility was really absent for guys like us, being a speculator was darn near impossible. there was not enough price fluctuation to get in and out and make a living, much less a profit. it was only when the dollar was unhinged from gold , that volatility entered into the market. imho, when this bull is over , there will be some plan to attach the currencies to the metal, a basket of real value, i dont know what the plan will entail. but the banksters will be good for a few decades. so, if one wants to change their financial situation is the opportunity. yes there will be bull and bear markets , their expression will be measured in years not months. this bull will be a game changer, but for very few. one has to study past charts , bull/bear markets. gain understanding , real understanding. and then this next most volatile leg can be a game changer. keep in mind that since 250 gold , gold has risen more than 500% . @the present say 1500 gold , 3k gold is a double. the miners have a >% to go. their profits will rise exponentially along w/the risks.
few have a tried and true strategy like alysomji. one has to give these bulls/bears lots of room parameters have to change. deliberating if the start of a move is an impulse or not will keep one on the sidelines ( elliott died broke. prechter has been wrong on everything for decades.) i did subscribe to prechter from about 80- sometime in 89 . and during that time he was amazing. elliott is a tool, not the tool. anyway, i digress. around october when the bottom occurs , some period thereafter its going to get into another gear, volatility is going to be off the charts. i dont know when it could take longer than i think, as alysomji says. anyway, do your homework your competition has done theirs. almost everyone i know owned the new stocks, internet stocks in 99-2k, and all of them rode the internet stocks down. its a tough tough game. do your homework . look @all the commodity charts from 79-80 . see if you can get material on what folks were thinking back then . what newsletter writers were telling their clients. and do the same for 99-2k look @daily charts. w/o study, and doing research , your emotions will hold sway. its not intestinal fortitude, its having studied and knowing what is in store for the market. yes the name of the market changes, but its still all human emotion and feeling. that doesnt change. gold and silver both have the most amazing story of them all. 5k years of being money is tough to match or beat. when this gets in gear buckle up
dharma
