Yesterday I said that the Confidence Indicator shows that the bond market is worried about the economy.
The 8th "sentinel" also says: RUN AWAY!, Barron's confidence indicator looks worried.
http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry578977
Around here homes sales are off 7% from a year ago and airport traffic is down 6%.
Last year was no banner year.
After cutting business to the bare bones, corporate profits are up, but half of last quarter's 11.4%.
Jobless claims are rising again.
Redbook Highlights
Like ICSC-Goldman, Redbook said heavy weather hurt sales of seasonal goods in the May 21 week. Redbook's year-on-year same-store sales rate is plus 3.4 percent, a bit above ICSC-Goldman's 3.1 percent rate but below trend. Redbook notes that discount chains were particularly hit since seasonal merchandise represents a large percent of their business. For May as a whole, Redbook's tally shows a month-to-date 2.6 percent monthly decline.
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Highlights
The wettest comparable week in 10 years pulled weekly same-store sales down 1.0 percent in the May 21 week, according to ICSC-Goldman which also cites the negative effect of higher gasoline prices.
Durable Goods Highlights
Durables orders fell back in April as overall new factory orders for durables declined 3.6 percent, following a revised 4.4 percent jump in March (previously estimated at up 4.1 percent). April's decrease was worse than the median forecast for a 3.0 percent fall. Excluding transportation, new orders slipped 1.5 percent
GDP Highlights
The economy did not get the hoped for upgrade for the start of the year. The Commerce Department's second estimate for quarter GDP growth was unrevised at up 1.8 percent annualized and came in lower than the consensus forecast for 2.1 percent. The first quarter remains notably softer than the 3.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter.
Unfortunately, demand numbers were nudged down and inventory investment bumped up. Final sales of domestic product were revised to an annualized 0.6 percent from the initial estimate of 0.8 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were revised to 0.7 percent from the original estimate of 0.9 percent annualized. The downward revision to final sales was mainly in personal spending, now at up 2.2 percent instead of the initial 2.7 percent for the first quarter.
Jobless Claims Highlights
With no special factors to blame, initial jobless claims rose 10,000 in the May 21 week to a 424,000 level that's 20,000 higher than expected. Revision to the May 14 week is also a negative, up 5,000 to 414,000. The Labor Department isn't citing any weather or auto-related factors for the results. The four-week average of 438,500 is nearly 30,000 higher than a month ago in a comparison that points to trouble for the May employment report. Even the four-week average for continuing claims is higher, at 3.742 million in data for the May 14 week vs 3.702 million in mid April. Stock futures are moving off early gains following this report and following a softer-than-expected revision to first-quarter GDP.
Corporate Profits Highlights
Corporate profits in the first quarter expanded to $1.450 trillion annualized-up from $1.369 trillion in the fourth quarter. Profits in the first quarter were up an annualized 25.6 percent, following a 12.6 percent drop the quarter before. Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits are up 5.8 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to up 11.4 percent in the fourth quarter.
Source: http://www.nasdaq.co...c-calendar.aspx
Edited by Rogerdodger, 26 May 2011 - 09:28 AM.
