305 replies to this topic

[dougie]

yes nice call were you short?

[SemiBizz]

yes nice call
were you short?

Yes I was, my short term target at 1611 got hit today though so it was time to trade that target.

Covered around 1600..

I'm waiting for a bounce to re-engage for the next leg down.

That's what I do, is trade target to target. I like to get in, get out. I hate holding this trash, any of it.

[fluid]

Maybe this will help...

Previous Forecast XAU:

Last week the XAU broke down sharply to a new low of 155.21 with STRONG VOLUME, we did get a bounce on Friday but even that resulted in finishing unchanged, so no signs of strength here. There's a lot of folks doing a lot of talking of "bottom" in the miners. I would be careful buying any miners here.. I have a list of expected support for the XAU I drew up when it broke 171.71, the next one from here is all the way down at 145. XAU needs to close over 158 now to prevent another VERY STEEP DECLINE

The people here are gold bugs, but there is no basing and we are the clearly in the midst of a trend move down.

[tradermama]

http://www.bloomberg...ggest-user.html
China's gold imports advance as the country may become the biggest user.
TM
P.S..FWIW...I do have a 2nd sell on gold target 1550/Silver's pnf trend is now negative and still of course on the sell. Chan has a sell on gld now too. Major cycle lows are due within 2 weeks ..and May 21st is a Gann Calendar turn date with May 14-15 a 3 star reversal for Merriman ..this should keep us on our toes..LOL!..

[Ken]

http://www.bloomberg...ggest-user.html
China's gold imports advance as the country may become the biggest user.
TM
P.S..FWIW...I do have a 2nd sell on gold target 1550/Silver's pnf trend is now negative and still of course on the sell. Chan has a sell on gld now too. Major cycle lows are due within 2 weeks ..and May 21st is a Gann Calendar turn date with May 14-15 a 3 star reversal for Merriman ..this should keep us on our toes..LOL!..

Hi everyone. Well, I have had enough of this sell off as I'm sure has everyone else. I feel absolutely exhausted watching my holdings fall and fall day after day, week after week by huge percentages while the S&P 500 barely declines a little more than 5% from it's high of 1422.38 on April 2nd.

That said I believe the lows are likely on Friday or Monday and then it's up from there. Gold and silver are both in the 19th week of the primary cycle. Gold's primary cycle is 15 to 21 weeks from low to low and silver's primary cycle is 13 to 21 weeks from low to low. We are certainly in the time frame for a primary cycle low for both metals.

In addition, the 18 day CCI for silver is now under 200 which means that in 75% of cases silver will explode upwards 10% or more within the next 7 trading days although it's usually within 4 trading days. This coincides with Venus turning retrograde on Tues, May 15th which has a historically high correlation to primary cycles which in this case will be a low. It's interesting that Raymond Merriman also stated that there are two other geocosmic signatures in effect May 13th and May 16th so I'd really expect the metals to bottom very soon. I should also note that the 9 week RSI for gold is getting really low and these kind of readings have always been fantastic buying opportunities.

Gold and silver are still bullish as long as they don't take out the lows of the last primary cycle on Dec 29, 2011 which was $1523 for gold and $26.14 for silver. Ideally for gold to confirm it's truly bullish in the next primary cycle the price needs to get over $1808 or there's a possible risk of gold falling to it's 4.25 year cycle low which would be due between May 2012 and September 2013.

[tradermama]

http://www.bloomberg...ggest-user.html
China's gold imports advance as the country may become the biggest user.
TM
P.S..FWIW...I do have a 2nd sell on gold target 1550/Silver's pnf trend is now negative and still of course on the sell. Chan has a sell on gld now too. Major cycle lows are due within 2 weeks ..and May 21st is a Gann Calendar turn date with May 14-15 a 3 star reversal for Merriman ..this should keep us on our toes..LOL!..

Hi everyone. Well, I have had enough of this sell off as I'm sure has everyone else. I feel absolutely exhausted watching my holdings fall and fall day after day, week after week by huge percentages while the S&P 500 barely declines a little more than 5% from it's high of 1422.38 on April 2nd.

That said I believe the lows are likely on Friday or Monday and then it's up from there. Gold and silver are both in the 19th week of the primary cycle. Gold's primary cycle is 15 to 21 weeks from low to low and silver's primary cycle is 13 to 21 weeks from low to low. We are certainly in the time frame for a primary cycle low for both metals.

In addition, the 18 day CCI for silver is now under 200 which means that in 75% of cases silver will explode upwards 10% or more within the next 7 trading days although it's usually within 4 trading days. This coincides with Venus turning retrograde on Tues, May 15th which has a historically high correlation to primary cycles which in this case will be a low. It's interesting that Raymond Merriman also stated that there are two other geocosmic signatures in effect May 13th and May 16th so I'd really expect the metals to bottom very soon. I should also note that the 9 week RSI for gold is getting really low and these kind of readings have always been fantastic buying opportunities.

Gold and silver are still bullish as long as they don't take out the lows of the last primary cycle on Dec 29, 2011 which was $1523 for gold and $26.14 for silver. Ideally for gold to confirm it's truly bullish in the next primary cycle the price needs to get over $1808 or there's a possible risk of gold falling to it's 4.25 year cycle low which would be due between May 2012 and September 2013.

Agree Ken..watching miners reversing here..now we watch our weekly closes...to me AEM is the strongest based on pnf and the relative strength...it just popped over its 50 day..now to see if it has staying power..it has held up great after its great earnings..and John (Silentone)..saying an important 4 yr and 16 yr low was due..which I feel it happened..so out of them all..that's the one to watch imo..this could be short covering too..we need confirmation

Thanks for your input


TM
P.S..today the Dow finally got a pnf sell..I have sell across the boards..including transports..I still feel a panic sell is going to come in..and that also could include metals/miners..we just need confirmation..a weekly close above 1620-1622 will confirm a low..even if it is temporary for a several week rally

[tradermama]

http://www.bloomberg...ggest-user.html
China's gold imports advance as the country may become the biggest user.
TM
P.S..FWIW...I do have a 2nd sell on gold target 1550/Silver's pnf trend is now negative and still of course on the sell. Chan has a sell on gld now too. Major cycle lows are due within 2 weeks ..and May 21st is a Gann Calendar turn date with May 14-15 a 3 star reversal for Merriman ..this should keep us on our toes..LOL!..

Hi everyone. Well, I have had enough of this sell off as I'm sure has everyone else. I feel absolutely exhausted watching my holdings fall and fall day after day, week after week by huge percentages while the S&P 500 barely declines a little more than 5% from it's high of 1422.38 on April 2nd.

That said I believe the lows are likely on Friday or Monday and then it's up from there. Gold and silver are both in the 19th week of the primary cycle. Gold's primary cycle is 15 to 21 weeks from low to low and silver's primary cycle is 13 to 21 weeks from low to low. We are certainly in the time frame for a primary cycle low for both metals.

In addition, the 18 day CCI for silver is now under 200 which means that in 75% of cases silver will explode upwards 10% or more within the next 7 trading days although it's usually within 4 trading days. This coincides with Venus turning retrograde on Tues, May 15th which has a historically high correlation to primary cycles which in this case will be a low. It's interesting that Raymond Merriman also stated that there are two other geocosmic signatures in effect May 13th and May 16th so I'd really expect the metals to bottom very soon. I should also note that the 9 week RSI for gold is getting really low and these kind of readings have always been fantastic buying opportunities.

Gold and silver are still bullish as long as they don't take out the lows of the last primary cycle on Dec 29, 2011 which was $1523 for gold and $26.14 for silver. Ideally for gold to confirm it's truly bullish in the next primary cycle the price needs to get over $1808 or there's a possible risk of gold falling to it's 4.25 year cycle low which would be due between May 2012 and September 2013.

Agree Ken..watching miners reversing here..now we watch our weekly closes...to me AEM is the strongest based on pnf and the relative strength...it just popped over its 50 day..now to see if it has staying power..it has held up great after its great earnings..and John (Silentone)..saying an important 4 yr and 16 yr low was due..which I feel it happened..so out of them all..that's the one to watch imo..this could be short covering too..we need confirmation

Thanks for your input


TM
P.S..today the Dow finally got a pnf sell..I have sell across the boards..including transports..I still feel a panic sell is going to come in..and that also could include metals/miners..we just need confirmation..a weekly close above 1620-1622 will confirm a low..even if it is temporary for a several week rally

I meant to say AEM just popped over it's 50 day on the 60 minute..which at this time is resistance..didn't want to imply the daily..no matter, to me, this one is one of the leaders to watch out of the miners..

[stubaby]

Thanks tradermama and Ken! Might be time to "go fishn" stubaby

[dharma]

bottoms are supposed to feel terrible. notice the bears get loud. no matter that they missed the move from 250-m1900. they get loud @the lows, its the way it is . traderama metions above - china bought 6x what it bought last year in the 1st quarter. this is a real physical buyer they have just repealed the excise tax in india, another real physical buyer, these are the largest players in this market. they have both been through many economic upheavals. i mentioned awhile back that appl was very instructive, the reason i bring up this parabolic is because its the most recent. notice that as the parabolic progressed, there became steeper angles of ascent. it broke down, at times from one angle of ascent formed a low and then a steeper angle of ascent took place. gold s angle of ascent has remained constant from the 2008 lows. it has been testing that trendline now for a few months, causing the trend followers to sell it is breaking down and something else will be constructed , it will be a steeper angle of ascent. this is not for the faint of heart or for those who dont really know what they are doing, they will chase. and into the run, they will make money, only to have it disappear @the final top! its the way it is . no matter who talks , tells folks to look @ the sovereign debt, has anything changed, folks will get emotional and sell losing their hard earned dough. its jut the way it is. markets look like do do @ cycle lows. and they look fantastic in rises. and so it goes over and over again. cgnx has chided me for posting as often as i do. my hope is that i rub off on a couple of people and they walk away w/a pot of gold the rest are learning i bought gg and slw do i think the lows are in! hell no, i am scaling in. but i do think that we are very close . i follow sentiment -market vane dropped 3% yesterday to 56% nearly to the 55% seen @ the december lows and gold was 70 lower in dec. hgnsi was unchanged still around -15% = the average adviser is short. now i realize sentiment is not for timing. it is time to put my tools down and watch the tape, it is giving clues here. i still think we are going to bottom real close to the 15th rally till the end of june. and depending on what that rally does, then we see what we are in store for. my best guess is , its going to be a long summer. when the sovereign debt crises is solved , then it is time to look @ other vehicles , until then this is all noise. and you thought riding a bucking bull would be a piece of cake!! wait till they ratchet up volatility. the key is to take care of yourself . exercise, eat right, and do things you love, be w/people you love. there is much more to life than $$$ - its a fair weather friend. dharma

[dharma]

apply this to the markets

dharma