305 replies to this topic

[dharma]

now let me get this straight , the derivative king , jpm, losses2-3billion on their derivatieve book and gold gets hit! when i traded and had managed accounts @sinclairs, back when. he said the really big players buy the miners 1st then the metal. think about that one. might we have seen that , in advance of the jpm admission? can the banks be trusted? sure banking is a boring biz, w/really small rates of return. but i wonder about repealing glass-steagall?
eric sprott on cnbc
http://www.sprottglo.....stments Ltd.)
i still think that we are putting in a bottom.
dharma

[tria]

dharma and all: This is what I commented yesterday in Terry Laundry's T-Theory forum in explaining why I bought some Gold on Wednesday. I belive one has to respect yesterday’s (reversal day) GDX volume. Can it be tested again? Yes. Can this low be broken soon? I doubt it. Can the PM’s break to new lows during this GDX test? Maybe. Can we have new lows later on this year? Probably but not certain. -tria

[tradermama]

dharma and all:

This is what I commented yesterday in Terry Laundry's T-Theory forum in explaining why I bought some Gold on Wednesday.

I belive one has to respect yesterday’s (reversal day) GDX volume.
Can it be tested again? Yes.
Can this low be broken soon? I doubt it.
Can the PM’s break to new lows during this GDX test? Maybe.
Can we have new lows later on this year? Probably but not certain.

-tria

Hi Tria,
Just curious, what is Laundry's expectations? I read he felt gold would make a 1490 low end of June? We are set up for at least a minimum rally 2-5 weeks whether this is going to be a sucessful test again, I dont know. But if $hui can get over 450 and $xau over205, this could still very well be the bottom. I agree that it looks really good for miners with that volume reversal at least short term. That said, we did get one also got a nice volume reversal in January too. I too have nibbled down here for this next turn...14/15th. ..and have cash to add. The question will be the retracement and then when we retest.

What concerns me which I work with pnf is silver's relative strength changed yesterday from X to O...it's been on a sell but I haven't seen the realtive strength change for a while..gdx did that in March which alerted me to be cautious with miners and I felt that it may take a while for a bottom..gold is still on a sell but the realtive strength so far is holding up. I do get the feeling that miners will bottom before metals and an important bottom is in the making this year..whether we have seen it or not. But even if we were to go lower, it's all about time and what one's time horizon is...This is a long term bull market for the metals and what we are experiencing is a cyclical bear market this year. We will know when it is over with confirmation.

A lot of "THE" bottom callers without confirmation concerns me but hey, it's not to say they are wrong either because it does feel like it.

Thanks for your updates including on Greece

TM
P.S 47.50 is a pnf buy for gdx..then we can see from there

Edited by tradermama, 11 May 2012 - 10:57 AM.

[tria]

Tradermama, Terry and most probably Parker identified a 25-week cycle due to bottom at the end of June. Last bottom was end December 2011. The next one, after the June low, is due in the middle of December 2012. His other studies about money flows and copper cycles makes him have a bearish bias till the end of this year. He feels quite bullish, however for the next year. His envelop theory suggests a possible low target GLD @ 143 which corresponds to about 1475 in Gold. Erik Hadik has a few large cycles bottoming in November 2012 and is also bullish for 2013. He does admit however that we could move sideway in a wide range, and not fall considerably till then. -tria

[dharma]

this morning has me thinking: the 3year trend line in gold has been violtated. now granted when this happens in parabolics is the angle of ascent becomes steeper, but that occurs once the bottom is in. where does this thing bottom? jpm , the derivative king, reports a 2-3billion loss on derivatives. where there is smoke there is fire. might there be a larger reported event in store for the banks? 08 resulted in the disappearance of lehman! derivatives have become a huge market . beyond anyones wildest dreams. these 2 events reinforce my idea of a long summer in the gold market dharma

[stubaby]

this morning has me thinking:
the 3year trend line in gold has been violtated. now granted when this happens in parabolics is the angle of ascent becomes steeper, but that occurs once the bottom is in. where does this thing bottom?
jpm , the derivative king, reports a 2-3billion loss on derivatives. where there is smoke there is fire. might there be a larger reported event in store for the banks? 08 resulted in the disappearance of lehman! derivatives have become a huge market . beyond anyones wildest dreams.
these 2 events reinforce my idea of a long summer in the gold market
dharma

[tradermama]

http://www.kitco.com...s/20120510.html
TM

[tradermama]

it's appearing more and more that the miners have bottom...(strongest sector from what I can see today)..even with the broads fall harder..they are turning green..leading metals..at least this leg of it for at least a short term to intermediate bottom..lots of volume off today's low TM

[dharma]

sinclair said along time ago that it would be the banksters who make the money on this gold bull, from what i read , most of the gold community has left the sector , vowing never to come back again. the cot , as of last tuesday , showed the commercials w/18k new longs, and i believe they continue to cash in on their shorts and get longer. they operate via the pgen. this jpm loss reaks of being much larger than is being stated. and the markets today seem to concur w/me. i have tomorrow as a significant astro event(yes traderama via merriman has brought this up as well). venus , goddess of finance starts retrograde motion tomorrow, a source for reversals has been its history. it is also 180 degrees for the start of mother divine- november 13th which has marked the end of several crash lows (note in different years it comes out on different dates. -with past crash lows of 10/29/29L, 10/20/87L and 10/28/97L. the lows were marked by the start of mother divine-goddess of wealth. i fully expect to hear the calls for the end of the gold bull market. nothing could be further from the truth. unnoticed , germany announced on friday that the Bundesbank was raising its targets for inflation. is the fed there alaready? or is the new target something to be announced? or kept secret? this new revelation by jpm , has the markets uneasy. this is similar to the way 08 unraveled . lots and lots of cross currents. i do expect this summer to be tough on the gold longs. i doubt that 1523 holds, but what do i know? remember from 75-76 gold lost 50% of its value-going from 204-102 then it went up 8.7x over the next 4 years. there is a weeding out occurring in the miners. this process will continue=net result fewer miners. some of these low grade deposits are not economically feasible. dharma

[dharma]

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html
IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

keep in mind for decades it seems they were net sellers
dharma