305 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

bottoms are supposed to feel terrible. notice the bears get loud. no matter that they missed the move from 250-m1900. they get loud @the lows, its the way it is .
traderama metions above - china bought 6x what it bought last year in the 1st quarter. this is a real physical buyer
they have just repealed the excise tax in india, another real physical buyer, these are the largest players in this market. they have both been through many economic upheavals.
i mentioned awhile back that appl was very instructive, the reason i bring up this parabolic is because its the most recent. notice that as the parabolic progressed, there became steeper angles of ascent. it broke down, at times from one angle of ascent formed a low and then a steeper angle of ascent took place. gold s angle of ascent has remained constant from the 2008 lows. it has been testing that trendline now for a few months, causing the trend followers to sell it is breaking down and something else will be constructed , it will be a steeper angle of ascent.
this is not for the faint of heart or for those who dont really know what they are doing, they will chase. and into the run, they will make money, only to have it disappear @the final top! its the way it is . no matter who talks , tells folks to look @ the sovereign debt, has anything changed, folks will get emotional and sell losing their hard earned dough. its jut the way it is. markets look like do do @ cycle lows. and they look fantastic in rises. and so it goes over and over again. cgnx has chided me for posting as often as i do. my hope is that i rub off on a couple of people and they walk away w/a pot of gold the rest are learning
i bought gg and slw do i think the lows are in! hell no, i am scaling in. but i do think that we are very close . i follow sentiment -market vane dropped 3% yesterday to 56% nearly to the 55% seen @ the december lows and gold was 70 lower in dec. hgnsi was unchanged still around -15% = the average adviser is short. now i realize sentiment is not for timing. it is time to put my tools down and watch the tape, it is giving clues here.
i still think we are going to bottom real close to the 15th rally till the end of june. and depending on what that rally does, then we see what we are in store for. my best guess is , its going to be a long summer.
when the sovereign debt crises is solved , then it is time to look @ other vehicles , until then this is all noise. and you thought riding a bucking bull would be a piece of cake!! wait till they ratchet up volatility. the key is to take care of yourself . exercise, eat right, and do things you love, be w/people you love. there is much more to life than $$$ - its a fair weather friend.
dharma

Dharma,
Don't worry about posting the same thing over and over..I know your intentions..and they are there to help others..they dont have to read this thread and I find it rude when people have the nerve to say things like that when there is no contribution. I find others that love to "gloat" when they finally hit the mark but yet when they are wrong, do they come back and say they were? This thread reads both ways as we all are posting the positives and negatives but no matter, the long term trend is bullish. Shorts were creamed before when this bull was on the run and it will happen again. The most important thing one does is manage their risk.

That said your posts are appreciated and you have taught as well as others on this thread always something new. There should be no egos here as we are sharing and no one is getting paid for information or I should say real time information. I dont want this Gold forum to turn out like the main one. That's why I will only post here..too many egos there and life's too short to deal with other's that need it stroked. I'm going fishing with Stubably...LOL!

Namaste!

TM

Edited by tradermama, 09 May 2012 - 10:47 AM.

[rooster]

I've learnt a lot reading everyone's posts here. Many times I need things repeated just so the lesson will actually hold. Since reading this board I've been able to control my emotions much better on the downside, I'm still trying to learn to take profits when everything looks great!

Edited by rooster, 09 May 2012 - 10:57 AM.

[dougie]

you waiting for GG to regain that daily wedge to consider long again Stu?

Took a small "swing" at GG today - looks overdone here (stop at today's low - $36.35) with 1st ST target at $39-40 and 2nd at the 200 day MA ($43ish):


http://stockcharts.c...6117&r=5420.png

http://stockcharts.c...7887&r=1521.png

http://stockcharts.c...9531&r=8588.png


stubaby



Note: Last entry December 30th at $44 and stopped-out February 7th at $47 Would be nice if this truned into more that a trade here - had to wait a long time on AEM to bottom - but have an outstanding cost basis eventhough it took a bunch of attempts.

[dharma]

thanks folks, jags management team has proven to be a bunch of bunglers. shandong officially walked on the deal, they got killed yesterday as a result. management is key for explorers/juniors. they need to have had lots of experience. its tough forget the noise. your emotions are being manipulated. dharma

[stubaby]

you waiting for GG to regain that daily wedge to consider long again Stu?

Took a small "swing" at GG today - looks overdone here (stop at today's low - $36.35) with 1st ST target at $39-40 and 2nd at the 200 day MA ($43ish):


http://stockcharts.c...6117&r=5420.png

http://stockcharts.c...7887&r=1521.png

http://stockcharts.c...9531&r=8588.png


stubaby



Note: Last entry December 30th at $44 and stopped-out February 7th at $47 Would be nice if this truned into more that a trade here - had to wait a long time on AEM to bottom - but have an outstanding cost basis eventhough it took a bunch of attempts.

dougie:

Added "at the open" today - no stop - "gap fill" today - I really like the looks of the weekly chart for a low, especially if we can 'hold' here or a little higher at Friday's close. I will add at $38 and $42 if this reversal 'is for real' - otherwise I will hold this position and continue to 'add' if we continue to drop in the weeks ahead (same as I did in fall of 2008)

I ALWAYS hold some cash for the unexpected opportunities!

stubaby

stubaby

[dharma]

that is wise stubaby
reversal day so far in the miners. 41.75 1/2 point between the 08 lows and the sept highs. we hit that this am
sure could be the bottom, just when the bears growl the loudest
john hathaway
http://www.caseyrese...s-market-bottom
dharma

[dharma]

sinclair posted this today, it is one of my favorite jesse quotes. his dad was jesse's partner It was the change in my own attitude toward the game that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me, little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. – Jesse Livermore

Edited by dharma, 09 May 2012 - 02:25 PM.

[dharma]

the odds favor that the low is in. yesterdays reversal in the miners on huge volume is a strong indication. i detected a few capitulations. the downside had become difficult. my thinking continues to be this will be a difficult summer for the gold market. for right here and now i am looking for a rally till near the end of june. and depending on what shape that rally takes, it will be a clue as to what we can expect next. the longer we stay above the 1523 low , the more secure that low becomes. indicating that the 34 month cycle lows are in if we take it out, then this will be 4.3 yr cycle low. many have been washed out of this sector, vowing never to return, in the run, they will return only to enjoy profits for a little while. jesse's quote is key for bull markets. buying @the right time is difficult but is necessary. i think that the banksters hold one of the largest positions in gold, when they are ready this thing will blow, in the meantime, they continue to gobble up the smaller fish. the bull wants to take as few as possible on his back. while the bear wants as many as possible on his back, so he can maul them all. this is a matter of survival here. historically no fiat has ever prevailed . this sovereign debt crises will be no different i dont expect many survivors . when the game goes into the next phase , for some reason the profits and volatility make it difficult to hold on . keep that appl chart close it is instructive. then go back to the otc chart 99-2k you have maps as your guide. let the experts do their short term analysis. they will be among the 1st to sell. do your own work! come to your own conclusions. we have had 13 or 11 years of bull market. each year has made a new high maybe this year will be different. if you get caught in the fluctuations , you are bait. i realize watching your navs every day makes it difficult . emotions are very strong. not easy to overcome. but to be successful , it is necessary. do your homework knowledge is power dharma

Edited by dharma, 10 May 2012 - 09:25 AM.

[dougie]

thanks dharma!

[johngeorge]

KWN May 10, 2012 Greyerz - Investors Need To Be Positioned For More Chaos