305 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

sinclair said along time ago that it would be the banksters who make the money on this gold bull, from what i read , most of the gold community has left the sector , vowing never to come back again. the cot , as of last tuesday , showed the commercials w/18k new longs, and i believe they continue to cash in on their shorts and get longer. they operate via the pgen. this jpm loss reaks of being much larger than is being stated. and the markets today seem to concur w/me. i have tomorrow as a significant astro event(yes traderama via merriman has brought this up as well). venus , goddess of finance starts retrograde motion tomorrow, a source for reversals has been its history. it is also 180 degrees for the start of mother divine- november 13th which has marked the end of several crash lows (note in different years it comes out on different dates. -with past crash lows of 10/29/29L, 10/20/87L and 10/28/97L.
the lows were marked by the start of mother divine-goddess of wealth.
i fully expect to hear the calls for the end of the gold bull market. nothing could be further from the truth. unnoticed , germany announced on friday that the Bundesbank was raising its targets for inflation. is the fed there alaready? or is the new target something to be announced? or kept secret?
this new revelation by jpm , has the markets uneasy. this is similar to the way 08 unraveled . lots and lots of cross currents.
i do expect this summer to be tough on the gold longs. i doubt that 1523 holds, but what do i know? remember from 75-76 gold lost 50% of its value-going from 204-102 then it went up 8.7x over the next 4 years. there is a weeding out occurring in the miners. this process will continue=net result fewer miners. some of these low grade deposits are not economically feasible.
dharma

I've already been seeing posts and on CNBC with people coming on calling for ridculous bottom levels of gold..like $700 in 2-3 yrs..yes, sentiment is very bearish and ideal for a major bottom when it happens..like you, I feel this is going to be choppy into the fall too..but we are setting up for a good swing up at a minimum.
TM

[SemiBizz]

I posted this chart in early April here... Not far now are we.

[senorBS]

it's appearing more and more that the miners have bottom...(strongest sector from what I can see today)..even with the broads fall harder..they are turning green..leading metals..at least this leg of it for at least a short term to intermediate bottom..lots of volume off today's low
TM

this reminds me a lot of 2008, keeps lookin like a possible bottom but rallies keep failing and then more new lows. These markets are a b*tch. Dollar now up 11 days in a row, 2nd longest all-time streak

NO BS

Senor

[SemiBizz]

it's appearing more and more that the miners have bottom...(strongest sector from what I can see today)..even with the broads fall harder..they are turning green..leading metals..at least this leg of it for at least a short term to intermediate bottom..lots of volume off today's low
TM

this reminds me a lot of 2008, keeps lookin like a possible bottom but rallies keep failing and then more new lows. These markets are a b*tch. Dollar now up 11 days in a row, 2nd longest all-time streak

NO BS

Senor

Election year, JPM Blowup, the oil spike, a lot of parallels.

2008 redoux works for mois...

[dharma]

the only sector this is like 08 is the gold miners. in 08 the dow was @6500. this time around its the risk on trade that is getting hit. the broads are not down that much. so like 08, it is mostly the miners According to Fekete Research, as of today June Gold has moved into backwardation, as has July silver. As for Gold sentiment, it became even more suicidal and a few Gold bulls even apparently jumped out of windows as well. The HGNSI was -14.8% again on Friday. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 3 points to 52% and just 3 points from the 2008 nadir of 49%, which is all occurring without Gold even taking out December lows yet. Likewise, Gold’s DSI hit a new record low today of just 6%. In the past, this has been a Bullish divergence signaling a rally in Gold, but it’s not working this time… yet. we have daily divergences in xau, hui, and gdx. hourly divergences in most of the mining indexes and gld. today , as traderama has talked about venus goes retrograde, which has a very high correlation w/market reversals, i look for this trend to reverse very soon and @the least we get a rally dharma

[dougie]

i am finally seeing some towel throwing calls for sub 1200 gold foreswearing ever investing again in miners (that last one seems like a sound idea IMO, Twain was right)

[tradermama]

the only sector this is like 08 is the gold miners. in 08 the dow was @6500. this time around its the risk on trade that is getting hit. the broads are not down that much. so like 08, it is mostly the miners
According to Fekete Research, as of today June Gold has moved into backwardation, as has July silver.

As for Gold sentiment, it became even more suicidal and a few Gold bulls even apparently jumped out of windows as well. The HGNSI was -14.8% again on Friday. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 3 points to 52% and just 3 points from the 2008 nadir of 49%, which is all occurring without Gold even taking out December lows yet. Likewise, Gold’s DSI hit a new record low today of just 6%. In the past, this has been a Bullish divergence signaling a rally in Gold, but it’s not working this time… yet.
we have daily divergences in xau, hui, and gdx. hourly divergences in most of the mining indexes and gld.
today , as traderama has talked about venus goes retrograde, which has a very high correlation w/market reversals, i look for this trend to reverse very soon and @the least we get a rally
dharma

We are in the 20th week of the 15-21 week primary cycle in gold. Today is a turn date plus/minus 3 but yes also Venus Retrograde which strongly suggest a buying opportunity even if it is a short term rally. Merriman has become a little more bearish till we start crossing above 15 day moving average presently around 1641 ..which will become resistance..This could just be a 2-5 week rally.

Odds are high roughly 80% we will get some kind of rally. I don't think anyone is disputing we are at an important junction here but till 1523 breaks on gold we still have an inverse head and shoulder.

as it stands 1680 is a buy signal for gold with pnf...gdx needs now 44...silver 33.50...

We just tested a 2010 low on $xau..$hui has not hit its 2010 lows..so far it that holds..it would be a divergence on the weekly and if it goes to end of the month..a monthly..but one day at a time..and of course the day's not over

TM

[SemiBizz]

i am finally seeing some towel throwing
calls for sub 1200 gold
foreswearing ever investing again in miners
(that last one seems like a sound idea IMO, Twain was right)

The handwriting has been on the wall for some time...

(Posted on 04/05/12)

[rooster]

Anyone think that we will have a 60-75% correction in the miners like the examples in this article?

http://www.gold-eagl...olev102708.html

[dougie]

why not: the capitulation would be complete then and the boys would be buying all the ways to the 08 lows