49 replies to this topic

[dharma]

stubaby

ECA looks to be a substantial winner. Great pick!

Speaking of natural gas......... Yesterday I was talking with a customer who works in the power plant of a nearby paper manufacturer. He told me that they were very seriously considering switching from coal to natural gas. The manufacturer's plant manager, in a recent meeting, told the employees that a conversion from coal to natural gas would cost $ 9 million, but, expected the pay back to be in two years, ie, they would save nearly $5 million a year by switching. Very interesting stuff IMO.

Thanks, as always, for the great chart work you so generously share.

Best to you.

johngeorge:

I was involved in the Energy Industries in the US (one of my past lives) for many years and in the Natural Gas area during the ORDER 436 period, when the pipelines opened-up their "closed" systems to transportation. I suspect there are multiples of your nearby paper mill out there all looking at the same economics - very powerful stuff, when the technicals and the fundamentals begin to align!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NATGAS&p=M&st=1990-01-01&en=2012-12-31&i=p20269776899&a=259871894&r=354.png

stubaby

amigo, run a crude/ng ratio MONTHLY chart and look at RSI, classic parabolic with RSI topping above the 90 level, this month's downturn could be indicating the parabolic is done and that ratio could crash. Si Eca and most gas producers look like they have bottomed, I've been buying some UPL in past few weeks ad SD as well, SD is oil with a big nat gas kicker)bonus) in some of the huge Pinion acreage they own. SD is my favorite aggressive oil/nat gas play. DYODD as always



Senor

senor, now i recognize that you are experienced @this game. that sd pick has caught my eye. why? well if i look @monthly chart , it has been basing for years. this is a huge foundation. some years back, on another board, a guy said he was loading up on sina. same situation, building a base. he then retired after sina made its move. out of big bases come big moves. i may buy a starter , then when it breaks out of the base add. gonna do some dd into the company. thanks
dharma

[senorBS]

stubaby

ECA looks to be a substantial winner. Great pick!

Speaking of natural gas......... Yesterday I was talking with a customer who works in the power plant of a nearby paper manufacturer. He told me that they were very seriously considering switching from coal to natural gas. The manufacturer's plant manager, in a recent meeting, told the employees that a conversion from coal to natural gas would cost $ 9 million, but, expected the pay back to be in two years, ie, they would save nearly $5 million a year by switching. Very interesting stuff IMO.

Thanks, as always, for the great chart work you so generously share.

Best to you.

johngeorge:

I was involved in the Energy Industries in the US (one of my past lives) for many years and in the Natural Gas area during the ORDER 436 period, when the pipelines opened-up their "closed" systems to transportation. I suspect there are multiples of your nearby paper mill out there all looking at the same economics - very powerful stuff, when the technicals and the fundamentals begin to align!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NATGAS&p=M&st=1990-01-01&en=2012-12-31&i=p20269776899&a=259871894&r=354.png

stubaby

amigo, run a crude/ng ratio MONTHLY chart and look at RSI, classic parabolic with RSI topping above the 90 level, this month's downturn could be indicating the parabolic is done and that ratio could crash. Si Eca and most gas producers look like they have bottomed, I've been buying some UPL in past few weeks ad SD as well, SD is oil with a big nat gas kicker)bonus) in some of the huge Pinion acreage they own. SD is my favorite aggressive oil/nat gas play. DYODD as always



Senor

senor, now i recognize that you are experienced @this game. that sd pick has caught my eye. why? well if i look @monthly chart , it has been basing for years. this is a huge foundation. some years back, on another board, a guy said he was loading up on sina. same situation, building a base. he then retired after sina made its move. out of big bases come big moves. i may buy a starter , then when it breaks out of the base add. gonna do some dd into the company. thanks
dharma

it's my fav pick in the oi/gas sector. They have a huge acreage position in the new "Missipian" field in Oklahoma/Kansas, mostly goin for oil but there is a substantial nat gas mix, and they have big Pinion acreage which is mostly dry nat gas that has hige potential when prices recover. So you have the raidly expanding oil production with basically what I consider a nat gas "call option/kicker". DYODD as always, BTW my oil/gas positions dwarf my metals.

Senor

[dharma]

senor, all commodities will do well, as they continue to debase. i do think gold/silver will be the best performers , however its a matter , sometimes of personal preference, and it appears ng may have bottomed. so , these could be rock bottom prices. when the parabolic takes hold, fear of survival will take effect, its the metals calling as the ultimate fear barometer dharma

[senorBS]

senor, all commodities will do well, as they continue to debase. i do think gold/silver will be the best performers , however its a matter , sometimes of personal preference, and it appears ng may have bottomed. so , these could be rock bottom prices. when the parabolic takes hold, fear of survival will take effect, its the metals calling as the ultimate fear barometer
dharma

You may certainly be right, I just think nat gas prices have hit generational lows and some quailty stocks got about as cheap as one could ask for, this is LONG TERM for an hombre who is usually a trader

Senor

[dharma]

senor, all commodities will do well, as they continue to debase. i do think gold/silver will be the best performers , however its a matter , sometimes of personal preference, and it appears ng may have bottomed. so , these could be rock bottom prices. when the parabolic takes hold, fear of survival will take effect, its the metals calling as the ultimate fear barometer
dharma

You may certainly be right, I just think nat gas prices have hit generational lows and some quailty stocks got about as cheap as one could ask for, this is LONG TERM for an hombre who is usually a trader

Senor

i understand, it is generational lows in ng and in miners. unfortunately for me , i started in 79 i hadnt seen how the gold stocks had languished until that point. i came in and folks were beginning to reap big rewards. i agree w/you totally. one has to do what they understand. you have been @this for a long time and survived. that speaks volumes to me. few survive. let alone prosper. the sharks mark the deck , and we all play w/that marked deck. i dont know if there will be hyperinflation. the forces of deflation are entrenched and strong. this system has been stretched and reached what appears to be maximum potential. i am in the stagflation camp. the debasing will take its toll. there are not alot of choices for sovereign debt. currency based investments will leave the holder w/big losses. its why we are all moved to do something. promising to keep rates low, is a sign
dharma

[senorBS]

senor, all commodities will do well, as they continue to debase. i do think gold/silver will be the best performers , however its a matter , sometimes of personal preference, and it appears ng may have bottomed. so , these could be rock bottom prices. when the parabolic takes hold, fear of survival will take effect, its the metals calling as the ultimate fear barometer
dharma

You may certainly be right, I just think nat gas prices have hit generational lows and some quailty stocks got about as cheap as one could ask for, this is LONG TERM for an hombre who is usually a trader

Senor

i understand, it is generational lows in ng and in miners. unfortunately for me , i started in 79 i hadnt seen how the gold stocks had languished until that point. i came in and folks were beginning to reap big rewards. i agree w/you totally. one has to do what they understand. you have been @this for a long time and survived. that speaks volumes to me. few survive. let alone prosper. the sharks mark the deck , and we all play w/that marked deck. i dont know if there will be hyperinflation. the forces of deflation are entrenched and strong. this system has been stretched and reached what appears to be maximum potential. i am in the stagflation camp. the debasing will take its toll. there are not alot of choices for sovereign debt. currency based investments will leave the holder w/big losses. its why we are all moved to do something. promising to keep rates low, is a sign
dharma

I will confess I do have concerns about a sustainable rally here in gold and gold stocks, gold need to get above 1700 to convince me, I think Nat gas can and will rally long term under either a weaker economy and hence QE3 environment or if the economy is surprisingly stronger than expected. My dos centavos.

Senor

[dharma]

senor, all commodities will do well, as they continue to debase. i do think gold/silver will be the best performers , however its a matter , sometimes of personal preference, and it appears ng may have bottomed. so , these could be rock bottom prices. when the parabolic takes hold, fear of survival will take effect, its the metals calling as the ultimate fear barometer
dharma

You may certainly be right, I just think nat gas prices have hit generational lows and some quailty stocks got about as cheap as one could ask for, this is LONG TERM for an hombre who is usually a trader

Senor

i understand, it is generational lows in ng and in miners. unfortunately for me , i started in 79 i hadnt seen how the gold stocks had languished until that point. i came in and folks were beginning to reap big rewards. i agree w/you totally. one has to do what they understand. you have been @this for a long time and survived. that speaks volumes to me. few survive. let alone prosper. the sharks mark the deck , and we all play w/that marked deck. i dont know if there will be hyperinflation. the forces of deflation are entrenched and strong. this system has been stretched and reached what appears to be maximum potential. i am in the stagflation camp. the debasing will take its toll. there are not alot of choices for sovereign debt. currency based investments will leave the holder w/big losses. its why we are all moved to do something. promising to keep rates low, is a sign
dharma

I will confess I do have concerns about a sustainable rally here in gold and gold stocks, gold need to get above 1700 to convince me, I think Nat gas can and will rally long term under either a weaker economy and hence QE3 environment or if the economy is surprisingly stronger than expected. My dos centavos.

Senor

@different times, different factors dominate. spain is falling into the abyss. it is a large economy. no reaction. risk off. greece a small economy, when in the same space . risk on. different things dominate @different times. nothing has been solved. sovereigns still swimming in debt. we will come around magically to the other side of the trade. gold/silve rboth being held down by the gann angles off the highs. that will change. of course i have no idea when. i threw that darn tourbon away. although i am regretting it. i looked fantastic in that thing!
dharma

[johngeorge]

Took a position in GAZ this am. This pnf chart shows a price objective of 5.08. Will see.

Yes, dharma, you looked quite dapper in the turban. Perhaps instead of throwing it away you could simply place it on the shelf for the time being. :^)

Edited by johngeorge, 01 May 2012 - 12:31 PM.

[senorBS]

ECA having another bueno day Senor

[johngeorge]

ECA having another bueno day

Senor

Senor

Your SD is on a tear. What a pick!!!! I am waiting for a pullback to buy..........could be I wait an awful long time though.