49 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

very solid qtr for SD and the rest of the yr looks very good, they have 81% of their crude hedged for the rest of the 2012, the big hit in price this week was likely fallout from the Awbry McClendon hedge fund frenzy that SD chairman Tom Ward was initially part of but exited in 2008. DYODD as always. BSing away Senor

[dharma]

the experts @abx hedged for years , it cost the company billions. i will never trade abx or take a position. when ng gets rolling, and it will @some point in the crises. sd will not make profits do to its hedge. just my 2c . i have it on my radar though. i wont argue when it breaks out of that colossal base dharma

[senorBS]

the experts @abx hedged for years , it cost the company billions. i will never trade abx or take a position. when ng gets rolling, and it will @some point in the crises. sd will not make profits do to its hedge. just my 2c . i have it on my radar though. i wont argue when it breaks out of that colossal base

dharma

you need to understant SD, they hedge oil near 100 because of the huge rate of return they get at that price, amongst the best is the U.S. per well. They have substabtial Nat gas as a byproduct of oil shale drilling and huge untapped nat gas resource in the Pinion field that is currently just being held. The do NOT hegde the nat gas. So you have a co. with strong future growth in oil with IMO a huge under appreciated nat gas kicker. DYODD as always

What I found extremely interesting from the recent UPL conference call was that rigs leaving nat gas will very likely not come back until nat gas gets to at least $5-6! UPL is a very low cost producer, most rigs have good sized contracts (yrs) and won't come back until there is good reason to do so, and "good reason" is prices way higher then they are now. FWIW and DYODD

Senor

[dharma]

the experts @abx hedged for years , it cost the company billions. i will never trade abx or take a position. when ng gets rolling, and it will @some point in the crises. sd will not make profits do to its hedge. just my 2c . i have it on my radar though. i wont argue when it breaks out of that colossal base

dharma

you need to understant SD, they hedge oil near 100 because of the huge rate of return they get at that price, amongst the best is the U.S. per well. They have substabtial Nat gas as a byproduct of oil shale drilling and huge untapped nat gas resource in the Pinion field that is currently just being held. The do NOT hegde the nat gas. So you have a co. with strong future growth in oil with IMO a huge under appreciated nat gas kicker. DYODD as always

What I found extremely interesting from the recent UPL conference call was that rigs leaving nat gas will very likely not come back until nat gas gets to at least $5-6! UPL is a very low cost producer, most rigs have good sized contracts (yrs) and won't come back until there is good reason to do so, and "good reason" is prices way higher then they are now. FWIW and DYODD

Senor

breakout of the base and my buy orders get hit, its as simple as that, remain in the base and i sit
thanks for the fundamental perspective, i do appreciate it
dharma

[senorBS]

Nat gas sector looking better and better. Nearby nat gas contract and UNG closed above 50-day MA's for the FIRST TIME since last June/July. ECA trading muy bueno and stocks like UPL bottoming IMO. Muco glad I am here vs gold and gold stocks. DYODD amigos Senor

[senorBS]

As nat gas rallies here's anothe interesting bullish perspective and IMO this amigo is over estimating production as Senor believes huge drop in drilling rigs since October is just beginning to be felt. The crude/gas ratio post parabolic collapse is continuing as the ratio collapses below 40 today after recently soaring above 50, got gas?

http://seekingalpha....as?source=yahoo

Senor

[johngeorge]

As nat gas rallies here's anothe interesting bullish perspective and IMO this amigo is over estimating production as Senor believes huge drop in drilling rigs since October is just beginning to be felt. The crude/gas ratio post parabolic collapse is continuing as the ratio collapses below 40 today after recently soaring above 50, got gas?

http://seekingalpha....as?source=yahoo

Senor

Si Senor

I got gas! Natural gas that is!!! Commodities down again today, but, not Nat gas. Looking better to me all the time. Nat Gas pnf chart Thanks for the information update. Most appreciated.

Best to you.

Edited by johngeorge, 09 May 2012 - 09:39 AM.

[senorBS]

and here is yet ANOTHER bullish article on Nat gas as the EIA trims 2012 production estimate and increases demand forecast, muy interesting time frame - GOT GAS?

http://www.reuters.c...E8G893M20120508

Senor

[senorBS]

added some FCG (nat gas stocks ETF) at 16.55 this morning, if I'm right w wave dos down is ending and it could head norte muy rapido, DYODD and this is my opinion. PURE BS Senor

[senorBS]

The U.S. nat gas rig count continued it's massive decline from well above 900 in October to a new 10-year low today, declining 8 rigs for the week to 598, that is a fall of about 35%. It takes many months for the falloff in production to have the effects felt, that is just now beginning to happen as weekly nat gas injections have been much below the 5 yr average tha past few weeks, I expect that trend to continue. There is still a glut in storage but if demand continues to increase as the EIA just forecasted this week and prodcution continues to fall off, the imbalance could be corrected much faster than most think. Nat gas nearby Futures closed above 2.50 today. Got gas? Senor