143 replies to this topic

[dharma]

Buying gold in July has been the right call for most of the last 100 years, for those that bought and sold w/o GREED we will see if this year is different. falling away here and taking out the lows (1520ish) will set the possibility for a july low. if not then it will remain the august /sept period. typically bull markets move in 3 stages. the 3rd stage is usually the largest percentage move. so that is what lies around the bend. you can of course get depressed by what happens here. or you can plan and set traps for the lows. my 1st target is into the 1400s. of course it does not have to stop there. triple bottoms/tops rarely hold. the strongest formation is a double bottom/top. all of the action in the bull up until this point has been fairly normal market action. that will change @some point in phase3. the early birds , who recognized the situation, most have been chopped to ribbons. the next group to arrive will have better fortune. of course most of those will ride over the falls. keep your wits about you as everyone else is losing theirs. gold is not going to go off the board. it is one of the worlds true assets. cbs(granted they are not the most astute) are building their hoard and will continue to do so, especially the far east. the wealth of the world is shifting from west to east. just as in 08 when it looked like gold would never stop going down, the same will be true here. dharma

[stocks]

Buying gold in July has been the right call for most of the last 100 years, for those that bought and sold w/o GREED
we will see if this year is different. falling away here and taking out the lows (1520ish) will set the possibility for a july low. if not then it will remain the august /sept period. typically bull markets move in 3 stages. the 3rd stage is usually the largest percentage move. so that is what lies around the bend. you can of course get depressed by what happens here. or you can plan and set traps for the lows. my 1st target is into the 1400s.

Agreed, the gold crash window is open now

$1520 is just too tempting

Imagine the panic if gold plunges below $1520.
Makes sense. The yearly inflation cycle ended with a silver spike in May 2011 and a gold spike in Sept 2011.
The yearly deflation cycle ends with a gold plunge below resistance now.

This would be a great multi-year buying opportunity like October 2008.

[stubaby]

Seems everyone is "now" convinced Gold is going to break the "triple-bottom" and fall below $1,500. Targets I have read range from 1,350 to 1,450 if this should occur.

The "contrarian" in me says either:

• we break $1,520 and then $1,500 briefly, reverse and then have another "swing" towards $1,700
• we break $1,520 and "sell-off" towards the above target range, bounce and then fall even further towards say $1,150

Given the current concensus another "swing" after a "false" breakdown is my highest odds outcome. Should be an interesting next several weeks! Will be nice in any case to get the "breakdown" in whatever form it takes "out of the way".


stubaby

Edited by stubaby, 24 June 2012 - 01:16 PM.

[dougie]

or maybe the bottom is in? At any rate , still think that November December is a time to have lots of cash

[johngeorge]

or maybe the bottom is in?
At any rate , still think that November December is a time to have lots of cash

dougie

I agree, I think......... I believe gold will romp and stomp in 2013. How the time flies when having fun!!!

[dharma]

no matter what happens, we have to be flexible.
if we have another disputed election, then i would agree on the november period.
my stuff shows that gold should be running in the november/december period.
but again its a concept lets let the market play out
i use seasonal charts as a guide. silver since its mini parabolic move to 48 has been consolidating/correcting those highs. and it seems to me that the trend of the commercials has been to work off their short position. for silver the time for lows is upon us http://seasonalchart...ics_silber.html
for gold we have more time http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html
now, i read armstrong, like everyone else he is not always right, he is calling for the possible low in july or aug/sept period.
being a student of gann, he clearly stated that when a market approaches lows/highs for a 4th time, the market almost always breaks through. so i doubt that the 1520s hold. and like stubaby, the contrarian in me says it is a brief break that snaps back quickly. of course we will see. i imagine there are alot of stops sitting below the lows and below 1500s , not uncommon for the commercials to run those.
the economic structure is becoming more and more fragile. the facade is more apparent. moodys downgrades just serves to confirm that. and of course the banks will return to the fed begging window, so they can pay their irreplaceable employees more outsized bonus'. after all they could lose the talent they so covet. where is andrew jackson!! we need statesman.
its just one of those times, where the transition back to markup takes place. right now. its wait and see. then markup.
as you all state above, anything is possible.
complacency has no place here.
dharma
some entertainment while we wait. so you think prince cant play http://www.youtube.c...ture=plpp_video

Edited by dharma, 25 June 2012 - 09:51 AM.

[dougie]

ewave wise i see all of this action off the highs as ABC-X-ABC and we are now in the final B up into AUgust with C down into November but I agree Dharma, gotta be flexible

[tria]

ewave wise i see all of this action off the highs as ABC-X-ABC and we are now in the final B up into AUgust with C down into November
but I agree Dharma, gotta be flexible

Very plausible scenario dougie.

Very interested to see what happenes when and if the the mcd(19,37) oscillator breaks above the blue resistance line (top of the chart). It has already broken above the green resistance line and has given an end of August time target for a high. (green line echo date)

The rsi-T having broken above its blue resistance line, has given a 3rd week of September high, time target. (blue line echo date)

All according to T-Theory's mcd-'T' and rsi-'T' time symmetry.

http://stockcharts.c...p...&listNum=19

Chart curtesy of Mike from the T-Theory Forum.

-tria

[dharma]

my job is not to look to call bottoms/tops, but to respond to market action. otherwise , i wind up by buying strength. @present i am in buy mode, but i dont have signals to get me to pull the trigger. no matter whose name it is, no one calls all the turns correctly in the market. no matter what the technique. but using s&r and oscillators it is quite possible to gauge the market conditions and this will make me money. unless i have paid subscribers, i am not going to make a nickel by forecasting. its a habit that some folks have, which they repeat again and again. in the 70s bull, conditions were such that food prices soared , which also helped the metals. we are starting to see bull trends develop in beans , wheat, corn. these are the building blocks of life not only for humans but also for livestock. silver is in the seasonal time band for a low. gold is approaching its seasonal time band. i brought this to light yesterday. seasonal charts are concepts based upon past market performance. doesnt mean this year cant be anomaly. also the corn chart shows corn breaking its former low, then going vertical, so those who waited are now chasing. meanwhile every day the sovereign deficits grow. that is the fact. austerity in democracies is not a reality. folks learn that they can vote themselves benefits. socialism does not work. soon you run out of people to take from. its a way to insure poverty. 49 million people on food stamps! of course jefferson talked about that! who was he anyway!? dharma

[tradermama]

FWIW..yesterday I got a pnf sell on gold price target 1460..1640 would be a buy signal...so this could just be a dead cat bounce..and of course if we do get into the 1640's then we are in a new cycle and need to stay above that. Have a great 4th of July..I'm going to my Georgia Mountains for the week! TM