143 replies to this topic

[dharma]

so the fed renews operation twst. so happens when the fed is the only buyer of bonds? like japan ! and now the euro! dharma

[stubaby]

so the fed renews operation twst. so happens when the fed is the only buyer of bonds? like japan ! and now the euro!
dharma

dharma:

Seems that was pretty much the concensus going into the FED's decision here - I remember when Greenspan shunned the 20-30 year financing and kept rolling the US Govmnt REFI's into the short end. Now appears that's all being unwound - in preparation for a weaker USD???

Nice volatility in Gold today - a "glimpse" of the future I think!


stubaby

[dougie]

and down we go... for how long? couple of days then up into months end or something more getting the retest over here and now would be nice

[dharma]

i didnt trade gold or anything else for that matter in 75-76. but some how i feel it was a transition period before the inflation/stagflation hit. gold went from 204 -102 in price. yesterday , the fed made their decision . i was not looking for qe , but the market was. so, the market is expressing its disappointment w/ no qe today. new lows and i am a buyer again. otherwise i just sit here. it seems obvious to all observers, the economy worldwide is falling off a cliff. they will do some form of monetization, and delaying will serve for it to be larger. i used the rally to raise some cash, so i am ready. i dont think the lows come until the aug/sept time period. of course i am open to what the market presents. this market is a constant reminder to buy weakness/sell strength. and when the participants have learned this lesson thoroughly, then the game will change. as i have mentioned, in late 79 w/my trading money , whenever i sold, i bought back and paid more for whatever i sold. such is the nature of the parabolic. really big rallies. followed by hair raising declines. be patient. monitor your feelings, if you are connected to the market this is the best point of reference. or you can watch sentiment and price. . remember this is all about sovereign debt. the situation is getting worse. there are no solutions only more spending. no fiat in history has ever prevailed. none. dharma

[tradermama]

i didnt trade gold or anything else for that matter in 75-76. but some how i feel it was a transition period before the inflation/stagflation hit. gold went from 204 -102 in price. yesterday , the fed made their decision . i was not looking for qe , but the market was. so, the market is expressing its disappointment w/ no qe today. new lows and i am a buyer again. otherwise i just sit here. it seems obvious to all observers, the economy worldwide is falling off a cliff.
they will do some form of monetization, and delaying will serve for it to be larger. i used the rally to raise some cash, so i am ready. i dont think the lows come until the aug/sept time period. of course i am open to what the market presents. this market is a constant reminder to buy weakness/sell strength. and when the participants have learned this lesson thoroughly, then the game will change. as i have mentioned, in late 79 w/my trading money , whenever i sold, i bought back and paid more for whatever i sold. such is the nature of the parabolic. really big rallies. followed by hair raising declines.
be patient. monitor your feelings, if you are connected to the market this is the best point of reference. or you can watch sentiment and price. .
remember this is all about sovereign debt. the situation is getting worse. there are no solutions only more spending.
no fiat in history has ever prevailed. none.
dharma

Great call Dharma ..you called the top in gold on the 6th based on your cycle work..hmmm..without volume too..
TM

[dougie]

so for hw long do we fall in this cycle, any opinions? is this over tomorrow or do we fall into july, or something much more bearish I am not seeing any calls for the bottom to fall out here and that makes me nervous

[tradermama]

so for hw long do we fall in this cycle, any opinions?
is this over tomorrow or do we fall into july, or something much more bearish

I am not seeing any calls for the bottom to fall out here and that makes me nervous

I'm in agreement with Dharma and Armstrong..down into Aug/Sept..typically Sept begins a favorable period for gold due to Indian weddings..I know Laundry expects end of the year but imo he's been wrong on his gold calls too..so like Dharma has said, take a break and come back and see how things are shapping up in August...but no matter, the market will give directions and the time when the bottom is in

TM

[stubaby]

so for hw long do we fall in this cycle, any opinions?
is this over tomorrow or do we fall into july, or something much more bearish

I am not seeing any calls for the bottom to fall out here and that makes me nervous

I'm in agreement with Dharma and Armstrong..down into Aug/Sept..typically Sept begins a favorable period for gold due to Indian weddings..I know Laundry expects end of the year but imo he's been wrong on his gold calls too..so like Dharma has said, take a break and come back and see how things are shapping up in August...but no matter, the market will give directions and the time when the bottom is in

TM

http://stockcharts.c...40303091672.png

[dharma]

keep in mind yesterday was the change in season. gann divided the year into 8ths and 3rds around the seasons. seasons bring changes in trend. . if we fall out of bed here, then this will be over in july. if not then aug/sept. i am just sitting back letting the market tip its hand i had mentioned that we had a 70 up day in 08 w/a lower high that produced a lower low and the 08/09 bottom. i am using that fractal as my road map. so far it is following the script. remain on your toes. sentiment is no where near complacent. dharma

[tradermama]

I got a Dorsey pnf sell on GDX..target 41.50.. one of the miners I follow RIC ..the relative strength (RS) changed to O..that shows the trend is down on that stock..I will be watching to see if more follow and if GDX does too. Most of them changed in late May from RS O to X..so we could be changing here again like we did in March when GDX changed from X to O and the downside continued. Still too early to call that but it's what warned me before about miners. TM