143 replies to this topic

[stubaby]

Miners sure "smelled" the false breakout last week! Could be a "double top" - let's see if we can attack the 50 and 200-day MA's in the weeks ahead!

http://stockcharts.c...1970&r=7022.png


http://stockcharts.c...1969&r=5032.png

http://stockcharts.c...1968&r=9973.png


stubaby

[dharma]

i have had the 14th as the top for this rally, so far we are working on a reversal day. could be a top or the top. heads up. if the gold market is basing its hopes on the feds accommodating here and now, that is a tough call. dharma

[dharma]

since the highs of occurred in silver (it was a small parabolic), one year ago april. the market has held below the gann angles off the highs , there was 1 day, yes 1 day where we closed above those angles, no follow up buying occurred , the market went below those angles and has stayed there for the past 14 months. while , i do not think the lows for this gold correction have been seen yet, i do think the silver bear is getting long in the tooth. i fully expect silver to take out those 48 highs. maybe not this year , but down the road. it has been a classic case of responding to ganns observations. highs and lows are like the moon pulling/pushing on the tides. this is a heads up. i dont think the lows in silver are in, but when they occur , the emphasis will shift back to a bull market in silver. unlike other metal analysts i hold silver as having its own place. it is extremely volatile and will get more expression in this next leg. hugo salinas is a big promoter of silver , so far no nation has bit his call for minting silver coins. of course cbs cant control silver , so it is not very interesting for them. i have time , so i thought i would write a quick note. dharma

Edited by dharma, 06 June 2012 - 02:48 PM.

[johngeorge]

An observation: Often times the price of silver moves inline with copper. I watch copper prices for clues as both are industrial metals.

[dharma]

An observation: Often times the price of silver moves inline with copper. I watch copper prices for clues as both are industrial metals.

hi jg- the difference and its quite worrisome to me is silver is held , to a large extant by speculators, when the top occurs , the door will not be wide enough.

yesterday, we came to the 1640 price cycle and we could nt hold it. the top could be in or we hit the top next week. dont mind the bears they will growl this summer, . nothing has been addressed. nothing has changed. holding fiats will not be a winning position. yes, we are in a giant deflation. the longer they wait , the more they will have to print. i expect stagflation to develop . w/o wage inflation. or to say it this way real stuff will go up in price. i dont get drawn into the day to day stuff. in the next phase of the bull, miners will be valued for gold in the ground. the bears have missed a stellar performance in the pms over the last 10+ years. and its not over. enjoy the summer come back in aug/sept and bring your buy hat.
dharma

[dougie]

i think we move down into the 14th then up hard into early july

[stubaby]

Lot's of "gaps" filling today (better now than much later). Surprise "near-term" could be on the upside! stubaby

[dharma]

keep in mind , this is seasonally , the weak time of year for gold
http://www.seasonalc...ssics_gold.html
appears to be making a bear flag in the short term.
w/o the cbs monetizing, the sucking sound of deflation will dominate.
i never like being involved in a position, if my premise is the fed will bail me out.
i am long term oriented. i love being out on the ocean, always have. so, what happens in
the short term is inconsequential
dharma

[dharma]

venus transit
http://www.space.com...ic-montage.html

while the top could be in , it looks more and more like we will have one more shot up.
they will take as many as they can, few ride the main trend. the gold community has had a tough year. such is the nature of bull markets.
enjoy the summer. the bull will return.
dharma

[dharma]

each bull market it different. i dont remember a time(it may require larger cycles than the span of a human life, to remember real estate prices) when real estate when up 30%+ a year as in the early 2000s . then peaked , w/folks having put 10$ or less down . it was over speculated, those excess are being worked off. also, we dont know what wages will be when this thing finally bottoms out. another factor is how the usa became so socialistic. 49million people on food stamps for example. what happened to you dont work, you dont eat-john smith founder of jamestown. its a known fact that if you take from those who will work and give to those who dont, that society will not prevail. here we are! @different times in the bull, the market responds to different factors. @present the market is focused on qe or ltro. i think this will be the case this summer. the puetz crash window opens shortly. it is a fairly rare event. the gold bull will regain its prominence again in due time. it has been since sept 11 since the highs were seen. after 12 years of higher highs, the market was overdue for a pause. keep in mind cbs are not super traders, w/vast knowledge and understanding of markets. the 1st we heard of cb buying occurred @gold over 1k . they were dumping in the 300s. now they are preparing for gold revaluation, so they are stocking up on gold as a store of value. this is 180degree turn around. these things take time, and i never lose a moments sleep . i am a professional. seen this before. i never think, will the sun rise tomorrow! @some point in this bull market miners will be valued by gold in the ground. then the explorers get some mojo, but not yet!!!! dharma