143 replies to this topic

[dharma]

starting to feel like i am doing a monologue here. not what i enjoy doing
dharma

dharma,

I read this on ZeroHedge
9:44 Precious Metals
It's Precious Metals Smack Down Time

http://www.zerohedge...20614_PMs_1.png

It would appear the BIS gold trading team is back from their cappuccino break.

As long as this continues and I must say they did it right at a resistance point in my daily chart, what can one say, apart from waiting for the inevitable?

BTW

With Egypt On The Verge Of A Military Coup And Martial Law, Art Cashin Issues A Warning
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/14/2012 - 10:22 Art Cashin Eurozone France Greece Iran Israel Martial Law Middle East Reuters Saudi Arabia

"The most important election this weekend may have nothing to do with the Eurozone - at least directly. The election in Egypt may change the face of the Middle East. The implications to Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia are enormous. Will the most populous Arab nation become a theocracy? This will be some weekend."

-tria

egypt and greece are 2 big elections. each affects the world stage in different ways. certainly change is underfoot. until we have honest money, that cant be manipulated we will be subject to turmoil. i feel that down the road, this too will change. anyway, i wait. and wait. negative bond yields, miniscule bond yields and folks are being corralled into some kind of return and safety. its a mirage. gold revaluation is coming. when? who can say! but it will happen.
dharma
looking for interaction, but thanks for the kind words

[tria]

Gold's OI situation looks fine.

http://www.barchart....p;txtDate=#jump

Silver's OI is quite different. Maybe it has to do with approaching first notice day of the July contract.

http://www.barchart....p;txtDate=#jump

It could turn out to be explosive, up or down due to the BB sqeeze.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SIL...id=p90924446149

-tria

[dharma]

Gold's OI situation looks fine.

http://www.barchart....p;txtDate=#jump

Silver's OI is quite different. Maybe it has to do with approaching first notice day of the July contract.

http://www.barchart....p;txtDate=#jump

It could turn out to be explosive, up or down due to the BB sqeeze.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SIL...id=p90924446149

-tria

to my eyes, silver looks like it has not bottomed yet.
in this crises i keep my game plan in tack no matter what i think. i remain @least 90% long and will remain so until well into the parabolic. well dharma those drawdowns make one lose sleep ,put knots in ones stomach. sorry , that is not the case for me. i never ever lose sleep over the markets. bad food yes, markets no. and sure i dislike drawdowns, but it is a fact of life in the markets. my field of play is within a range. but i never let my longs get lower than 85% and that has been my mo throughout the duration of this bull. i dont care what i think , @this stage of the crises this is my mo. fiats will be depreciated @some point in the crises. as in 34 when all the gold was called in , folks were paid 20+an oz , then gold was revalued to 35 oz thus cutting the value of currency in almost 1/2 . will qe occur , will there be more ltro? of course there will , there is not the political will to do otherwise. i have no idea when that will occur. but it will. look from 2000-2008 gold went higher , there was no qe , but the dollar hit the skids and gold went slowly but steadily higher. then in 2008 in the midst of the lehman crises qe was introduced. and again appreciated . qe is another way to devalue fiat. they print more fiat, lowering the value. they say the dollar lost 97% of its pp since 1913(inception of the fed). throughout history this is the story for fiats. the political temptation is just too great.
sure its possible to call turns and not go through the corrections. having seen the previous bull, i can tell you @some point in the 3rd phase it gets more and more difficult choose your poison. choose wisely.
dharma

[rooster]

Dharma, you talk about the 3rd phase of the bull market coming up. Is that the final phase? I've not invested in a bull before and I'm trying to understand. When I look at EW, there are 5 waves and Alf thinks we are going into the 3rd wave, so that means there would be a 4 down with a 5 up still. I read that in commodities the biggest wave is the 5th. If you've got time could you explain this? Thanks

[dharma]

Dharma, you talk about the 3rd phase of the bull market coming up. Is that the final phase? I've not invested in a bull before and I'm trying to understand. When I look at EW, there are 5 waves and Alf thinks we are going into the 3rd wave, so that means there would be a 4 down with a 5 up still. I read that in commodities the biggest wave is the 5th. If you've got time could you explain this? Thanks

its not a matter of time, its a matter of inclination
the problem w/elliott is you dont know until after the fact. i saw alfs count. there are lots of possibilities @this point. i dont want to venture a guess there. stu is our elliottician. ask him
the 3rd phase of a bull is the final phase. it is marked by the parabolic.
@osme point the light goes on. and folks flock this way. odnt look for the public to be in here in a big way. the public is broke. it will be big money. institutions. and such.
dharma

[stubaby]

rooster/dharma:

Don't mix "EW waves" with "Phases", they are simular but slightly different terminology. EW Wave 3's are typically considered the recognition phase of a move - they are persistant in direction - corrective waves within Wave 3's are usually well contained - and RSI's usually register their strongest readings - they often contain the most price appreciation in the shortest time frame.

To me "Phases" are more a "state of mind", and may or may not follow EW Waves.
The 1st Phase of this BULL market was the initial move off of the bottom in 2001 (some say 1999, but to me 9/11 was the change agent here, where the commodity BULL market began) to 2004, which took out the 1993 and 1996 countertrend peaks all the way to the break above the old highs 850ish and the "round number" of 1,000 in early 2008. Very few participated here (I was 'in', but only for about 25-30% of my allocation) Phase 1 ended with the 2008 "Financial Crisis" sharp corrective.

The 2nd phase began at the 2008 "Financial Crisis" sharp corrective and continued through the sharp rebound that followed peaking last year and continuing through now. Again few participated, i.e., bought into the selloff in 2008 (I was up to 50% allocation after the correction), but as the market recovered more and more came in 2010 and 2011. The present corrective is specifically aimed at eliminating those late comers and it is why dharma believes, as I am beginning to, that the lows lie ahead of us this summer.

Phase 3 will begin slowly and grind and grind higher until the beginning of the "parabolic" which will run until it "sucks in" all the late comers again and then go just a little further for good measure before the ultimate break.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=M&st=1980-06-01&en=2002-06-03&i=p86562971314&a=269635381&r=1339790047138.png


Just my 2 cents - I expect we are either in Wave 4 now with Wave 5 to follow OR Wave 2 of 3 now with 3, 4 and 5 of 3 to follow - either way after this corrective we will move subtaintially higher.


stubaby

[dharma]

stubaby, i agree, i am leaning towards this being wave 4 for several reasons. if so then 1033 should not be violated. and i agree on phase 3 , i keep elliott separate from the phases of a market this is going to be a most interesting week next week the world is focused on greece. elections sunday and of significance is the egyptian elections ,which could send the middle east in a new direction. really upset the power balance. stay tuned. dharma

[cgnx]

On stubabys chart we are early phase 2. We have a looooooooooong way to go. Most will think the boom is over and most here will be out perhaps including myself. Will be extremely hard to hold especially after gains of 8-12x. My feeling is we will sell this bull ridiculously early as gains will dwarf even my largest projections. The fact that this market is rather limited in what can be printed or produced. I'm sure almost every stock on the market will be claiming to be finding gold someplace. Could be a decade before we reach the pinacle. Think more like the 1974 -2000 bull market in stocks. From bottom to top. So we are in the 12 th year from 2000. Another 13 is more like it. To change psychology takes time. People are slow to act. So I would say we are waiting for phase 2 and Wave 3 to begin.

[rooster]

Stubaby, thank you very much for your explanation. I'm going to save it!

[dougie]

one thing is for sure, the volatility is only just beginning to get wild wonder what lies in store here this week? Had thought we have one more good pop into early July then more bear action into the fall. but not married to that.