173 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

For those with an interest in such things there is a major Bradley turn date coming up on July 28th.

[dharma]

many of the european indexes were taken to the woodshed today. this could affect our broad market. its amazing how major events disappear from folks awareness, then the same problem rises again and they take notice. the european debt problem is not going to vanish. it will be there until there is a solution. either the debt gets paid or it is reneged on. those are the only choices. i love simple problems, it makes it easy to get a handle on them. there are many other cogs in the trade wheel that are deep in debt. they too will come under scrutiny. obviously cbs are not the best traders. they came into the spotlight when gold crossed 1k. they continue to aggressively build reserves of gold. they buy tons @a time. while individual investors buy like 20 gold coins. the year long correction will be drawing to a close soon. dharma

[fluid]

the backdrop for the pms : we have extremely low interest rates. the grains are in bull markets, and fear of drought devastating the crops is prevalent. oil appears to be breaking out of its. base. the rising cpi, could very well lead to cost push inflation. we are nearing the end of this long consolidation.
could there be another rout that takes prices below 1520? sure why not. its when surprises occur , to catch the unwary off guard. above the previous high and chances improve for a continued uptrend. sure there will be corrections in the grains and you can expect them to be violent. but, it seems to me their uptrend is established. and this is a bullish backdrop for the pms
dharma

well there is no drought in gold stocks, more like a monsoon or flooding of them it seems. I will never buy a stock unless it is in a confirmed uptrend and most are not when I look at them.

Is easy to fall in love with a stock or sector, and gold bugs are the worst in my view. Am I wrong, in a way I hope I am but we see.

[tradermama]

http://bbs.cobrasmar...f...4&mode=view
anyone familiar with the Bullish Gartley Pattern? Above is a link to Cobra's thread posted by a member called Cougar. It looks like a big move could be coming to GDX soon.
TM

[johngeorge]

As I type gold is up a buck or two, but, dollar up as well. Maybe turn around time for the pm?

[tradermama]

As I type gold is up a buck or two, but, dollar up as well. Maybe turn around time for the pm?

They do seem to be sniffing something out. If gdx can get over 41.91 and stay over that, then it will be breaking out of the triangle I posted above within that Gartley Bullish pattern. It's been getting close..of course the other way can happen too..slv is in a tight triangle too right near that apex....something is gonna give soon..place your bets..LOL!

Have a great weekend!
TM

[dharma]

yes, place your bets. i have been nibbling on issues that i like that have been beaten up. i dont need to catch the exact lows , i just need to be on board when the trend takes hold. its obvious to all observers, the world economy is on the ropes. something will need to be done. the only question is when??? sure gold could break the 1520 lows, then go higher. the gold community , although i believe they will prove correct in their assessment have been taken to the woodshed repeatedly. to the point where most are out of the game. its why playing w/leverage and margin can be devastating. we may be @the end of this correction or we are close. nibble nibble. dharma

Edited by dharma, 21 July 2012 - 09:48 AM.

[johngeorge]

Not nibbling yet, but, keeping my eye on a few stocks such as uslv, trx, jag, sd, etc. I plan to buy when they get launched. Not interested in catching a bottom or selling at a high...........I'm easy. 50% of a move satisfies me.

[dharma]

the grains are overbought, w/daily rsi divergences. does this mean the end of the grain bull market? i doubt it, it means we will have a pull back @some point. less grain= higher food prices. it will cause cattle ranchers to trim back their herds. it will cause farmers to hedge their crops(those that do have crops). over the next month or two there will be volatility, until the actual size of the harvest is seen. then price will adjust accordingly. crude oil appears to have made a small inverse h&s pattern, coming back to 2-3% below the neckline is normal. the situation in europe is more dire. greece is too small to affect much. while spain and italy are in dire straits and that has taken center stage. how will the cb respond to their crises? its getting closer and closer to the point where they must do something. of course they can continue to wait. i pointed out a while back the topping patterns in the bond markets. after 30years of bull market, the top will and is taking time to form. this is one of the largest investment vehicles, so the trend change will take alot of time. and 30 years of good returns takes time to change the psychology. of course todays bond investors are being offered miniscule returns on their investments. 30years ago they were being given about 15% dividends , + appreciation. that is the difference of arriving late to the party and being there @ the lows. gold is holding up well , 12 years of bull, and i believe the greatest price appreciation lies ahead of us. will gold hold the 1520 lows or not? you know i dont know. its not a question that will make me money. its a question w/guys w/turbans. i nibble on weakness. and hope to be fully invested by the time the lows are in place. that is my strategy. if we go down the rabbit hole, then banks viability comes into question. if you look @ the 30s gold was regulated , but the miners went into an enormous bull market. i would think the soundness of most banking institutions will come into question. in those days, folks literally had their cash in hand. gold is cash in hand. it has been raised to a tier 1 investment. miners will slide w/the broads. i dont think the cbs will sit idilly by and let this thing slide into the rabbit hole. the cbs are dominated by keynesian thinking . lets see what happens dharma

[senorBS]

bot my first gold position today in quite a long time, took a small position in NUGT at 8.20 FWIW Senor