145 replies to this topic

[dharma]

these next couple of days for my work shows the short cycle topping. there are so many cross currents , i am just sitting. the sentiment remains decidedly in the bearish camp w/most gold advisers short. as you can see from the last 2 days action, there are lots of fun and games. folks trying to get the market participants to back their positions. the feds balance sheet expanded in january. not really a surprise, but expansion of the fed balance sheet has led to gold rallies i saw last time and it will happen again this time, when this thing moves, most will be left @ the station. i am not looking for anything in the 1st quarter. my parameters are above 1805 and below 1520s in that continued range its all noise. ambrose pritchard had an interesting piece this am patience. in the waiting dont shoot yourself in the foot dharma

Edited by dharma, 18 January 2013 - 11:47 AM.

[stubaby]

these next couple of days for my work shows the short cycle topping.
there are so many cross currents , i am just sitting. the sentiment remains decidedly in the bearish camp w/most gold advisers short.
as you can see from the last 2 days action, there are lots of fun and games. folks trying to get the market participants to back their positions. the feds balance sheet expanded in january. not really a surprise, but expansion of the fed balance sheet has led to gold rallies
i saw last time and it will happen again this time, when this thing moves, most will be left @ the station.
i am not looking for anything in the 1st quarter. my parameters are above 1805 and below 1520s
in that continued range its all noise. ambrose pritchard had an interesting piece this am
patience. in the waiting dont shoot yourself in the foot
dharma

dharma:

Trading ranges within trading ranges - "building cause" for sure - that 1,626 print after Wave © of 2 low gives me pause on declaring Wave 2 complete:


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p90162716583&a=259871946&r=5279.png


stubaby

[tradermama]

these next couple of days for my work shows the short cycle topping.
there are so many cross currents , i am just sitting. the sentiment remains decidedly in the bearish camp w/most gold advisers short.
as you can see from the last 2 days action, there are lots of fun and games. folks trying to get the market participants to back their positions. the feds balance sheet expanded in january. not really a surprise, but expansion of the fed balance sheet has led to gold rallies
i saw last time and it will happen again this time, when this thing moves, most will be left @ the station.
i am not looking for anything in the 1st quarter. my parameters are above 1805 and below 1520s
in that continued range its all noise. ambrose pritchard had an interesting piece this am
patience. in the waiting dont shoot yourself in the foot
dharma

dharma:

Trading ranges within trading ranges - "building cause" for sure - that 1,626 print after Wave © of 2 low gives me pause on declaring Wave 2 complete:


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p90162716583&a=259871946&r=5279.png


stubaby

Stubaby,
Your count lines up with that primary major low of Merriman's Jan 28-Feb 15. And his next turn date is Feb 15-18th...plus minus 3.
1720 is pnf buy on gold
TM

[RagingSpartan]

germany repatriating its gold???

this is a piece from 1965 where degaulle outlines the present situation in the usa monetary system
http://www.youtube.c...be_gdata_player

dharma

The German gold story is nothing but noise. Germany has about $6T in debt. 300 tons of gold is worth about $16B.

[dharma]

nice chart stubaby. i see that possibility. still caught in the cross currents. so maybe more sideways ????!
from a sheer monetary perspective , the germans calling for their gold is no big deal . from the perspective of cbs lack of trust in each other, yes it is a big deal. from the perspective that the fed cant deliver the whole thing for years -its a big deal. and it may begin a wave of other cbs calling for their gold. w/all the loans , on gold, some folks could be caught short the physical"!
ambrose pritchard
http://blogs.telegra...-is-being-born/

dharma

[dharma]

so the boj head , shirakawa, term is up in april . shenzo abe, wants a dove in there. my guess is april , leading into the 21 -22 month cycle highs is when the launch begins. since the 11 highs in gold we have been building cause. it is quite a large base that is being built. was the 1626 low the low for the cycle? from an elliott perspective it sure looks like a viable possibility my work shows so many cross currents. the bonds seem to be continuing to put in a long term top. oil appears to be building cause as well. the dollar seems poised to break as well. what is left of the middle class is about to be squeezed. i see many under capitalized gold bugs being squeezed . there are cycles of varying durations that could have bottomed or the bottoms lie ahead. my horizons are not in the short term. having seen this game before, there is no telling when the train is going to leave the station. and like last time i think most will miss , then be forced to chase. dharma take a look @sprotts re4sources- SCPZF

Edited by dharma, 22 January 2013 - 10:50 AM.

[tria]

GDX is flashing a timid but Green light in my eyes. I am entertaining the idea of buying NEM June 47 Calls and selling June 43 Puts for almost no premium debit. -tria

[dharma]

yes, it is tria. volume came in on the close, and price finally showed some life. i continue to wait for the crosscurrents to play out. that 1626 had all the markings of a cycle low, w/a reversal day. still to early for me to draw my conclusions. my strategy from the getgo, once i believed gold was in a bull was to buy and hold. i have not swayed from that strategy. i do take small % and buy weakness and sell strength. there is a really good probability that the lows are in, but i am not convinced, so i keep my hands in my pockets silver is sold out @ the treasury. no more orders for silver coins are being taken. the last time that happened, silver moved near 50. the gann guy using the 60yr cycle thinks that the lows are in;http://www.ganngloba...523918e81965599 Selected quotes from the BARRons Roundtable -- From Jim Rogers -- "We are living in a dream state. To have every developed country printing money at the same time is unprecedented." Felix Zulauf -- "Thirty-eight countries are pursuing a zero or negative real interest rate policy. I have never seen anything like it." Fred Hickey -- "I own a lot of gold stocks. I am not short anything. I don't know when this thing will blow up. The European central bank promised to print unlimited amounts of money, and it suddenly looked like Europe's problems were solved. The Bank of England is in QE6, and England is headed back into recession. Money printing doesn't work. It has been tried for 2,000 years and hasn't worked. It always ends in tears......... The central banks of both countries (Brazil and Mexico) and Korea are buying large quantities of gold. They know that all the developed-market currencies are on a path to destruction." Russell the way i see this is having just fiat is suicide @this point dharma

[stubaby]

GDX is flashing a timid but Green light in my eyes.
I am entertaining the idea of buying NEM June 47 Calls and selling June 43 Puts for almost no premium debit.

-tria

Tria:

Would like to have seen some "follow-through" today - back to carving-out a bottom - drip...drip...drip.

Silver leading here - usually "just what the miners need" - IMHO we need to see the "break" in the broads here to get Mojo!

http://stockcharts.c...871967&r=13.png


stubaby

[dougie]

Stu: you dont think a break in broads will pull miners down too?