131 replies to this topic

[dharma]

i saw a chart of the 75-76 bear in gold (took 20 months) superimposed on this bear, it is uncannily similar. doing some buying , will do the bulk of it next week. if the lows are taken out , i bail.if not i ride dharma on down days, the miners look to be resilient.

Edited by dharma, 24 May 2013 - 10:20 AM.

[dharma]

all of the fundamentals that got me into gold in the 1st place near the turn of the century, are still in place today, and in spades. few if any governments are cutting deficits. few if any governments are balancing their budgets. and in fact the printing fest continues.
that being said it is seasonally now the weak time of year -http://www.gracelandupdates.com/images/stories/13maya/2013may28india1.pdf
that will put a damper on price
here is a chart of the 75-76 bear market which took 20 months and a 50% haircut http://www.chartsrus...d/GC1976btm.gif
notice that the market did not produce a double bottom then, the 2nd bottom in early 76 was lower, unfortunately, the chart does not show volume. on the 2nd low recently, volume was significantly lower than the 1st low april 16th
i have no sentiment gauges going back then. today sentiment is lopsided in the bearish camp. and small specs/large specs are short. these guys dont usually make money.
its a time for caution, for short. today is expiration, so it could be wild.
its definitely a time to be cautious for sure. most of what i read and hear is bearish w/#s in the 1200s or 1100s .could definitely be in the cards. this has been a most unusual bull. prices were up for 12 years straight. so a breather is long overdo. i am prepared to buy lower #s should they occur. i have been doing some nibbling. it would not surprise me to see the gold/silver ratio blow out even more. the speculative silver will regain when the bull returns , until then the spread could widen even more.

the broads continue into the stratosphere. here is what folks were saying from 1927-1933
http://www.gold-eagl...ref=patrick.net so, if you are following anyone, good luck!

dharma

[dharma]

this piece is interesting
http://kingworldnews...er_Markets.html
seems the short side is getting crowded.
time is running out . still some days left .
still time for the bears to exert their will .
dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma I think we have time to form this bottom over the summer (seasonals and as you pointed out 1100 could be in the cards), but, I am looking for a ramp up this fall. Next year could well be another trying year for the bulls. Will know in the fulness of time. Thanks for the thread. Best to you.

[dharma]

here is what i see : not one gold adviser that i have read has recommended buying, actually just maund the hedge fund community is net short silver and close to net short gold-from the piece i posted above there is a clear double bottom on the gold chart , w/the 2nd low occurring on lighter volume-text book double bottom pattern. so why not try the upside and see how many stops can be run, @the least. the shorts have been in their comfort zone. of course i dont know, but it seems to me if we can take out the last highs, then maybe just maybe the bulls run. especially if those 1520 #s can be taken out. every one has their crystal balls these days. i have been establishing a position in the beaten down miners. they never ring a bell. dharma , are the lows in darn if i know. i just have to respond to what the market gives. many of the bears have been bearish the whole way up. and many rarely hold a position overnight. the fundamentals could not be better. lets see who gets skewered this time. dharma by the way, put up a monthly chart of the dow or sp, it is in the vertical part of the parabolic. dont know if the whole thing gets corrected now, but it sure looks ripe for @least a decent correction. it seems to me all of qe goes to the banksters. so maybe a correction, gets more qe to happen???? speculating. lining the banksters pockets

[johngeorge]

From the FIWD my monthly gold chart shows the bull needs to clear resistance @ 1593 before we can even start thinking about new all time highs. Next hurdle would then be 1781. So lots of patience for those bulls looking for $2100+. Could indeed be a very long wait..................... Very long indeed!

[dougie]

who needs all times highs JG?

[senorBS]

what a weird and interesting close, Dow down 200 and tanking, gold and silver close near lows but miner's (YES miners) catch a bid and stocks like AEM and KGC up with big boyz like Nem-ABX-GG down very little and nicely off lows. A one day wonder or some bullish relative strength creeping in here? Dazed and confused but still long for now BSing away Senor

[stubaby]

what a weird and interesting close, Dow down 200 and tanking, gold and silver close near lows but miner's (YES miners) catch a bid and stocks like AEM and KGC up with big boyz like Nem-ABX-GG down very little and nicely off lows. A one day wonder or some bullish relative strength creeping in here? Dazed and confused but still long for now

BSing away

Senor

Senor:

Interesting also that the weekly COT numbers were released early today - could be the reason for the "end-of-day" bid catching. Seems the "powers-that-be" at the CBOE now wish to see a rally in the PM complex - Hmm.

stubaby

[senorBS]

what a weird and interesting close, Dow down 200 and tanking, gold and silver close near lows but miner's (YES miners) catch a bid and stocks like AEM and KGC up with big boyz like Nem-ABX-GG down very little and nicely off lows. A one day wonder or some bullish relative strength creeping in here? Dazed and confused but still long for now

BSing away

Senor

Senor:

Interesting also that the weekly COT numbers were released early today - could be the reason for the "end-of-day" bid catching. Seems the "powers-that-be" at the CBOE now wish to see a rally in the PM complex - Hmm.

stubaby

si, perhaps previous market correlations are about to see some grande changes? we see

Senor