131 replies to this topic

[tria]

Did some buying myself but mainly in FNV @ 38.68 -tria

[dharma]

the hourly charts are setting up for a bounce and i have a turn monday/tuesday. i am of the mind 1-the dollar is among the strongest fiat. boj is bent on dropping the yen, raising asset prices and improving trade. they are in trouble anyway -http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/05/must-watch-christine-hughes-of.html the euro is coming apart @the seams. as more and more countries sink into recession. the dollar could surprise on the upside 2 ganns thesis is time dominates, and when time is up the trend changes. w/2 dominant cycles in bottoming position i believe this has more time to go. end of may @the earliest, and i am also looking @ june 3 one thing is apparent , the miners are @ a place they reach every so often-undervalued , oversold, and begging for buyers. when the turn hits these will be big winners 4 yes i read the stories of gold being in a bear. the secular bull has bear phases. 08 saw a 34% correction @1260, we are @ 34% from the highs. saving some ammo it wont be long now. dharma

[dougie]

why 237?

Volume lagging here in the miners - expending energy without conviction - Wave 2 of 5 - looking for 237-240 for a trad-able bottom and "counter-trend" rally towards 330-335 - maybe next week - waiting.


stubaby

[dharma]

keep in mind the sentiment has been overwhelmingly in the bear camp -hgnsi -37.5% which i believe is a new bull market low small specs /large specs are short- these folks rarely get it right ok key reversal days in progress if we are to close here. potential double bottom, in gold. intermarket divergence silver lower low, gold not key reversal day in the miners we have had good set ups before , lets see how them close em also, from my work, difficult to draw any conclusions before months end though above the last highs, would be pretty convincing in my book dharma

[wxman]

Dharma...don't know if you saw what I posted on Russ's board:
I've been following Nichols' 21-month gold cycle
http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...amp;a=181128327
Ed Carlson thinks that this 21 month cycle is a low, which looks reasonable (in this time frame)
http://www.traderpla...low-in-may-gld/
also Lindsay's count from the middle section
http://www.traderpla...ay-part-ii-gld/

keep in mind the sentiment has been overwhelmingly in the bear camp -hgnsi -37.5% which i believe is a new bull market low
small specs /large specs are short- these folks rarely get it right
ok
key reversal days in progress if we are to close here.
potential double bottom, in gold.
intermarket divergence silver lower low, gold not
key reversal day in the miners
we have had good set ups before , lets see how them close em
also,
from my work, difficult to draw any conclusions before months end
though above the last highs, would be pretty convincing in my book
dharma

Edited by wxman, 20 May 2013 - 02:23 PM.

[dharma]

hi

Dharma...don't know if you saw what I posted on Russ's board:
I've been following Nichols' 21-month gold cycle
http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...amp;a=181128327
Ed Carlson thinks that this 21 month cycle is a low, which looks reasonable (in this time frame)
http://www.traderpla...low-in-may-gld/
also Lindsay's count from the middle section
http://www.traderpla...ay-part-ii-gld/

keep in mind the sentiment has been overwhelmingly in the bear camp -hgnsi -37.5% which i believe is a new bull market low
small specs /large specs are short- these folks rarely get it right
ok
key reversal days in progress if we are to close here.
potential double bottom, in gold.
intermarket divergence silver lower low, gold not
key reversal day in the miners
we have had good set ups before , lets see how them close em
also,
from my work, difficult to draw any conclusions before months end
though above the last highs, would be pretty convincing in my book
dharma

hi wxman, just saw your post on the other thread. i came to that conclusion as well , this year the 21-22 month cycle will invert this year, unless there is some sudden gold awakening. this year the 4.3 yr and 8.6 yr cycles lows come in . i have come to the conclusion that unless we close above the previous highs, then the lows could lie in front of us. i can see this decline extending till mid june . today the rally was impressive , but it proved nothing. of course if it continues in the days ahead then , that could change things. friday was 7 days down in a row for gold. gann had a 7-10 rule, which states if the market has been down 7-10 days straight, then reverse . today was a case in point of that rule.
based on the long cycles the gold low can come anytime now, till mid june. w/a rally above the last highs, then the low will be confirmed as in
wxman, i always appreciate your well thought out market posts
dharma

[dharma]

hgnsi -31.3 market vane 40% still @ extremes the fed spoke today, they can say whatever they like. w/o qe we go down the rabbit hole waiting dharma

[wxman]

interesting pattern here in GLD

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=303050730

hi

Dharma...don't know if you saw what I posted on Russ's board:
I've been following Nichols' 21-month gold cycle
http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...amp;a=181128327
Ed Carlson thinks that this 21 month cycle is a low, which looks reasonable (in this time frame)
http://www.traderpla...low-in-may-gld/
also Lindsay's count from the middle section
http://www.traderpla...ay-part-ii-gld/

keep in mind the sentiment has been overwhelmingly in the bear camp -hgnsi -37.5% which i believe is a new bull market low
small specs /large specs are short- these folks rarely get it right
ok
key reversal days in progress if we are to close here.
potential double bottom, in gold.
intermarket divergence silver lower low, gold not
key reversal day in the miners
we have had good set ups before , lets see how them close em
also,
from my work, difficult to draw any conclusions before months end
though above the last highs, would be pretty convincing in my book
dharma

hi wxman, just saw your post on the other thread. i came to that conclusion as well , this year the 21-22 month cycle will invert this year, unless there is some sudden gold awakening. this year the 4.3 yr and 8.6 yr cycles lows come in . i have come to the conclusion that unless we close above the previous highs, then the lows could lie in front of us. i can see this decline extending till mid june . today the rally was impressive , but it proved nothing. of course if it continues in the days ahead then , that could change things. friday was 7 days down in a row for gold. gann had a 7-10 rule, which states if the market has been down 7-10 days straight, then reverse . today was a case in point of that rule.
based on the long cycles the gold low can come anytime now, till mid june. w/a rally above the last highs, then the low will be confirmed as in
wxman, i always appreciate your well thought out market posts
dharma

[dharma]

well the fed meeting was interesting yesterday, something for everyone. if you had any doubts about the liquidity provided by qe, the broads set you straight
here is the bottom line
jim grant
http://video.cnbc.co...ideo=3000169482
lets put the meeting into a picture
http://kingworldnews...ey_Markets.html

now we have a couple of economists running the economy.
double bottom is the prominent pattern right now.
dharma

[dharma]

double bottom in gold silver makes new lows gold not miners leading sentiment still in the dumps hgnsi -31.3% market vane 39% not a bullish voice anywhere sure seems like the lows are in to me is the conclusion i have come to. if everyone thought it was the low , then it would nt be dharma by the way armstrong on the big picture is quite astute. it was his trading that got him in dire straits(still like the band) he sucked as a trader. dont take my word for it, see his old track record for yourself