131 replies to this topic

[dougie]

You a pro member of Dtockcharts ? How did you get that 30 year chart of the Yen?

Bass has made his short JGB calls for ages though dharma
maybe he will be right but anyone listening to those calls has been decimated

now keep in mind bass premise is for the long term . the examples you use are the last 4 months .
well during that time shenzo abe was elected, his platform was easier money to help deflation lose its grip
shirakawa resigned and kuroda was put in in march
they just released and are implementing their new qe plan
bass is position is that of the long term
so the jury is still out.
bass has made billions was right on the mortgage fiasco.
i have no stock in him. he is a smart guy
i just wanted to bring some balance to the statements brought out here.
personally, i do think japan is in the worst shape of the major economic powers. their age demographics
speak for themselves as well as their population growth or lack thereof
dharma

yes , his thesis on japan has been around for awhile. he only recently started to get hurt by it. is my point. and from what he says, its a longer term view.
to me its like saying gold is unprofitable to trade from the long side, judging by todays action
which by the way was a coordinated attack
1st the fed releases before the open-never happens
then gs calls for 1350 advising its clients to short-http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-time-short-132705633.html;_ylt=Ar43nyEOCq_UiVUSCnkfZ6SiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4c2U0OXZtBG1pdANDTk
JDIFRvcCB
then lagrande speaking in ny assures that the financial system is sound and bail ins will never happen again-http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-says-economy-less-dangerous-2013-04-10

dharma

Long-term:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XJY&p=M&st=1970-10-17&en=(today)&i=p54391777947&a=211621799&r=60.png


stubaby

[dharma]

Bass has made his short JGB calls for ages though dharma
maybe he will be right but anyone listening to those calls has been decimated

now keep in mind bass premise is for the long term . the examples you use are the last 4 months .
well during that time shenzo abe was elected, his platform was easier money to help deflation lose its grip
shirakawa resigned and kuroda was put in in march
they just released and are implementing their new qe plan
bass is position is that of the long term
so the jury is still out.
bass has made billions was right on the mortgage fiasco.
i have no stock in him. he is a smart guy
i just wanted to bring some balance to the statements brought out here.
personally, i do think japan is in the worst shape of the major economic powers. their age demographics
speak for themselves as well as their population growth or lack thereof
dharma

yes , his thesis on japan has been around for awhile. he only recently started to get hurt by it. is my point. and from what he says, its a longer term view.
to me its like saying gold is unprofitable to trade from the long side, judging by todays action
which by the way was a coordinated attack
1st the fed releases before the open-never happens
then gs calls for 1350 advising its clients to short-http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-time-short-132705633.html;_ylt=Ar43nyEOCq_UiVUSCnkfZ6SiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4c2U0OXZtBG1pdANDTk
JDIFRvcCB
then lagrande speaking in ny assures that the financial system is sound and bail ins will never happen again-http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-says-economy-less-dangerous-2013-04-10

dharma

I don't know what Lagarde said, neither do I believe any of them since on a Friday evening in November 1967, the UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson, assured us (I was a university student in London then) that the British Pound was sound and the next day on saturday he devalued it by 14%.

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/3208396.stm

It was all over the Greek TV channels evening newstoday that on Friday's Eurogroup meeting, they will discuss the possibility that from 2015 any Eurozone Bank in trouble will haircut first its shareholders then its Bondholders and if needed the unsecured troubled Bank depositors above euro 100K.
For the Countries already under Bail-out agreement, Bail-in may be impimented at a moments notice.

http://silverdoctors...o-face-bail-in/

Dharma, do you realize that the Russians who had Gold in the troubled Banks safe deposit boxes were saved from any haircut whilst the large depositors lost anything from 40% up to 90%?
Do you realize that Greeks having Gold rather than real estate were saved from a 40% haircut? (30% drop in prices and 15% at least in new taxes)

-tria

thanks tria, found this tid bit this am http://www.kitco.com...0DC_cyprus.html lets see what they decide to do.
i will be back alittle later
dharma

[salsabob]

...Dharma, do you realize that the Russians who had Gold in the troubled Banks safe deposit boxes were saved from any haircut whilst the large depositors lost anything from 40% up to 90%?
Do you realize that Greeks having Gold rather than real estate were saved from a 40% haircut? (30% drop in prices and 15% at least in new taxes)

-tria

And your source of information on this is what?

Edited by salsabob, 11 April 2013 - 10:13 AM.

[tria]

...Dharma, do you realize that the Russians who had Gold in the troubled Banks safe deposit boxes were saved from any haircut whilst the large depositors lost anything from 40% up to 90%?
Do you realize that Greeks having Gold rather than real estate were saved from a 40% haircut? (30% drop in prices and 15% at least in new taxes)

-tria

And your source of information on this is what?

Do not really understand your question.
I happen to live in Athens, Greece and know all about local real estate taxes and current price drops.
It was NEVER stated that the Cypriot bancrupt Banks safe deposit boxes would be sealed or searched and any valuables such as Gold, Diamonds, Bonds or Stock cerificates would have to pay any kind of levy or tax or whatever.
This is not top secret info, it just a fact of life.

[dharma]

seems to me the bears are trapped. which isnt to say that we dont have a move below the 1520s. although i doubt it. sentiment and fundamentals are favor the bulls and we are in a bull market. the technicals are somewhat dubious. yesterdays raid was interesting.
dharma
bass
http://www.bloomberg...Zey5hO2kug.html

[dharma]

COMEX Gold open interest rose yesterday by 30.8% to 419,863 contracts on Gold's slide, suggesting once again that extremely aggressive short selling drove the decline. dharma

[tomterrific14]

COMEX Gold open interest rose yesterday by 30.8% to 419,863 contracts on Gold's slide, suggesting once again that extremely aggressive short selling drove the decline.
dharma

Friday's COT will be interesting

[salsabob]

...Dharma, do you realize that the Russians who had Gold in the troubled Banks safe deposit boxes were saved from any haircut whilst the large depositors lost anything from 40% up to 90%?
Do you realize that Greeks having Gold rather than real estate were saved from a 40% haircut? (30% drop in prices and 15% at least in new taxes)

-tria

And your source of information on this is what?

Do not really understand your question.
I happen to live in Athens, Greece and know all about local real estate taxes and current price drops.
It was NEVER stated that the Cypriot bancrupt Banks safe deposit boxes would be sealed or searched and any valuables such as Gold, Diamonds, Bonds or Stock cerificates would have to pay any kind of levy or tax or whatever.
This is not top secret info, it just a fact of life.

In the same sentence, you stated a 40 to 90% haircut for large depositors. That implies that some similar order of magnitude of wealth was removed, pre-haircut, from safe deposit boxes. Maybe you didn't mean that implication - if that's the case, my apologies for my misinterpretation. On the other hand, if that was what you were implying, I very much doubt the scales are remotely comparable – I’m open to being proven wrong if there's data and thus the reason for my request. It’s just my nature to be fact-based; no harm was intended.

[tria]

...Dharma, do you realize that the Russians who had Gold in the troubled Banks safe deposit boxes were saved from any haircut whilst the large depositors lost anything from 40% up to 90%?
Do you realize that Greeks having Gold rather than real estate were saved from a 40% haircut? (30% drop in prices and 15% at least in new taxes)

-tria

And your source of information on this is what?

Do not really understand your question.
I happen to live in Athens, Greece and know all about local real estate taxes and current price drops.
It was NEVER stated that the Cypriot bancrupt Banks safe deposit boxes would be sealed or searched and any valuables such as Gold, Diamonds, Bonds or Stock cerificates would have to pay any kind of levy or tax or whatever.
This is not top secret info, it just a fact of life.

In the same sentence, you stated a 40 to 90% haircut for large depositors. That implies that some similar order of magnitude of wealth was removed, pre-haircut, from safe deposit boxes. Maybe you didn't mean that implication - if that's the case, my apologies for my misinterpretation. On the other hand, if that was what you were implying, I very much doubt the scales are remotely comparable – I’m open to being proven wrong if there's data and thus the reason for my request. It’s just my nature to be fact-based; no harm was intended.

Ok, English is not my first language but will try once more.
Two troubled Cypriot Banks, Laiki and the Bank of Cyprus, the two main Banks actually.
Laiki, went under and the accounts with less than 100K were transfered to the other troubled Bank, the Bank of Cyprus.
Laiki depositors with more than 100K took a 90% haircut.
Bank of Cyprus depositors above 100K took a 40-50% haircut.

In each of the 2 troubled Banks no safe deposit Boxes were touched in any way.
They did haircuts only to large deposits in the 2 Banks.
They did nothing to any form of wealth placed in private safe deposit boxes at these banks.

Bottom line if I had a Bank deposit of Euro 1Million with Laiki Bank , my LOSS = (1M-0.1M)x0.9 = 810,000
Had I stored 1Million worth of gold or cash in the same Laiki Bank but in my personal safe deposit box, as soon as the Bank reopened I could just go in and collect my 1M worth of Gold or cash or whatever.

Hope all is clear now of what I was trying to say.

[salsabob]

...Dharma, do you realize that the Russians who had Gold in the troubled Banks safe deposit boxes were saved from any haircut whilst the large depositors lost anything from 40% up to 90%?
Do you realize that Greeks having Gold rather than real estate were saved from a 40% haircut? (30% drop in prices and 15% at least in new taxes)

-tria

And your source of information on this is what?

Do not really understand your question.
I happen to live in Athens, Greece and know all about local real estate taxes and current price drops.
It was NEVER stated that the Cypriot bancrupt Banks safe deposit boxes would be sealed or searched and any valuables such as Gold, Diamonds, Bonds or Stock cerificates would have to pay any kind of levy or tax or whatever.
This is not top secret info, it just a fact of life.

In the same sentence, you stated a 40 to 90% haircut for large depositors. That implies that some similar order of magnitude of wealth was removed, pre-haircut, from safe deposit boxes. Maybe you didn't mean that implication - if that's the case, my apologies for my misinterpretation. On the other hand, if that was what you were implying, I very much doubt the scales are remotely comparable – I’m open to being proven wrong if there's data and thus the reason for my request. It’s just my nature to be fact-based; no harm was intended.

Ok, English is not my first language but will try once more.
Two troubled Cypriot Banks, Laiki and the Bank of Cyprus, the two main Banks actually.
Laiki, went under and the accounts with less than 100K were transfered to the other troubled Bank, the Bank of Cyprus.
Laiki depositors with more than 100K took a 90% haircut.
Bank of Cyprus depositors above 100K took a 40-50% haircut.

In each of the 2 troubled Banks no safe deposit Boxes were touched in any way.
They did haircuts only to large deposits in the 2 Banks.
They did nothing to any form of wealth placed in private safe deposit boxes at these banks.

Bottom line if I had a Bank deposit of Euro 1Million with Laiki Bank , my LOSS = (1M-0.1M)x0.9 = 810,000
Had I stored 1Million worth of gold or cash in the same Laiki Bank but in my personal safe deposit box, as soon as the Bank reopened I could just go in and collect my 1M worth of Gold or cash or whatever.

Hope all is clear now of what I was trying to say.

Thanks for the explanation. I remain doubtful, however, that whatever was in or taken out of those boxes is on the order of the several billion Euros that Cyprus has to cough up, which now looks to be going even higher -

http://business.time...-to-30-billion/

Cyprus Bailout Swells to $30 Billion

(BRUSSELS) — The cost of bailing out Cyprus has swollen to euro 23 billion ($30 billion), with the crisis-hit country having to take on the lion’s share of the measures needed to avoid bankruptcy, according to a draft document by the country’s international creditors...

Also, just to note, what is placed in a safe deposit box is not a financial transaction. The Cyprus government would have a more legitimate claim on the water pipes that serve the banks than what is in those boxes.