320 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

yes, i am watching palladium in particular. i do think there will be problems @the mines in s/africa. which will cause pal and plat to rise.
jim rogers

"If you want to make a lot of money, resist diversification. Brokers promote the motion that everybody should diversity. But that is mainly to protect themselves. The way to get rich is to find what is good, focus on it, and concentrate your resources there."
so far todays low is testing the .382 low that was also created the other day. and w/fridays cots the small specs /large specs are building their short positions, while the commercials are reducing theirs and working towards net long.
seasonal lows complete around the 7th.
i am noticing bottoms being formed in several commodities.
so far the market is unable to make higher highs, now we see if it can create its 1st higher low. need to see it get some footing
dharma

Yep - now's the point to turn - failure here could be problematic!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p80138772266&a=310447657&r=6581.png

stubaby

stubaby,

This looks like a really good work. Pretty much hit your target yesterday and is having a spectacular bounce (especially in NUGT). Much appreciated.

I would add that yesterday was the eighth consecutive day down in HUI (and GDX and NUGT). That's only happened three times in the past 10 years prior to yesterday (3/05, 5/06. 2/12). Each time, it was a no-brainer buy for at least a scalp, and actually more... But on each of the previous instances of this kind of relentless decline, there was a rally for a week or so before the down trend continued. These kinds of consecutive runs are great for bounces but there's also momentum in a rip like this so this trend might still have more to go.

For the moment, however, what a day!

Good luck and good trading.

[dharma]

1,2,3, and even 6 month gofo negative
senor palladium http://www.proactive...imes-46494.html
dharma

[Russ]

Stubaby:

Dust is showing the H&S pattern even better, note that Dust is below the cloud which is bearish too.

http://stockcharts.c...75982623701.png

[stubaby]

Stubaby:

Dust is showing the H&S pattern even better, note that Dust is below the cloud which is bearish too.

http://stockcharts.c...75982623701.png

Yep - so is NUGT - Go Figure!

[Russ]

Stubaby said... Yep - so is NUGT - Go Figure!

Oddly enough, NUGT is still below the cloud, so that means it has not quite turned bullish yet using that indicator.
GLD is also below....but all that is about to change eh...

Also interesting is that yesterday August 7, was Armstrong's pi cycle turn day.


see... http://www.traderpla...m_campaign=1684

Edited by Russ, 08 August 2013 - 01:41 PM.

[dharma]

looks to me like the cup and handle pattern is in effect no doubt the inverse h&s pattern could also be in play yesterday, as in 08, the xau/gld ratio came awfully close to taking out the lows @the end of june. the set up in 08 caused a 6% jump in buillion and 25% jump in the miners. in spite of all i said above, i cant be sure the lows are in. however, it does look more promising. 1st up a couple of closes above 1350. the weakest sector is the pms. which is ironic because qe should be helping this sector the most, and yet stocks continue to climb the wall of worry yesterday hgnsi =16.7% market vane=39% still very low #s , enhancing the bullish case dharma ps. stu always does great chartwork

Edited by dharma, 08 August 2013 - 02:35 PM.

[senorBS]

looks to me like the cup and handle pattern is in effect
no doubt the inverse h&s pattern could also be in play
yesterday, as in 08, the xau/gld ratio came awfully close to taking out the lows @the end of june. the set up in 08 caused a 6% jump in buillion and 25% jump in the miners.
in spite of all i said above, i cant be sure the lows are in.
however, it does look more promising. 1st up a couple of closes above 1350.
the weakest sector is the pms. which is ironic because qe should be helping this sector the most, and yet stocks continue to climb the wall of worry
yesterday
hgnsi =16.7%
market vane=39% still very low #s , enhancing the bullish case
dharma
ps. stu always does great chartwork

was a bueno day, really liked that so may metals sectors participated and dollar looks a lot lower, looking for 1380-1400 area and then will reevaluate and see what looks likely from there, silver is leading here for a change which I think is a plus as ot lagged very badly or recent rally attempts

Senor

[senorBS]

the possibilities as I see it: - if this is a wave C then it is .618 x A at 1383 - if A = C then target is 1452 - if wave 3 or C is 1.618 x first wave then 1573 is a valid target then again this could all be wrong, we see BSing away Senor

[senorBS]

starting to smell major changes in the air. Dow down 125 Canada (a commodity country) is higher after underperforming for ages. Aussie market and Aussie dollar both looking bueno, possible major low for Aussie dollar. The metals I have been talking about like Copper have launched - the crux is whether these are just temporary changes or the beginnings of major moves and the stagflation scenario - time will tell. I am bullish gold/sil and metals for now Senor

Edited by senorBS, 09 August 2013 - 10:23 AM.

[stubaby]

starting to smell major changes in the air. Dow down 125 Canada (a commodity country) is higher after underperforming for ages. Aussie market and Aussie dollar both looking bueno, possible major low for Aussie dollar. The metals I have been talking about like Copper have launched - the crux is whether these are just temporary changes or the beginnings of major moves and the stagflation scenario - time will tell. I am bullish gold/sil and metals for now

Senor

Senor:

Nice and clear 5-waves up on HUI here:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&i=p19770897121&a=309707235&r=926.png

I agrre on gold here - if we can take out 1,325 should see 1,450


stubaby