203 replies to this topic

[dougie]

5 UP where?

not highly confident but I thought the new rally high in gold early on may have completed 5 up from 1276, if correct this should be a near term correction that ends aroung 1300, that of course is "if" the five up count is correct, we see

Senor

that is how i am counting it and this is a wave 2. and the fibs so far seem to support that . silver should take over the lead. i read over the weekend, the platinum miners in SA are going to strike.
here is the gann guys presentation on gold/silver http://www.ganngloba...cfac263e84696b3

dharma

some thoughts
Sprott Resources has teamed up with the largest Chinese Gold miner, Zijin Mining, to form a global mining fund with an initial target of $500 Million in acquisitions. $500 Mln could easily take a few of the better advanced-stage deposits off the market.

And on Sept. 6, China announced that it's all ready to make oil trades using the Yuan rather than the U.S. dollar with any nation caring to do so... the Dollar has since fallen from 81.467 to 79.73. And on the following day, Sept. 7, China made an agreement with Russia that it can buy all the oil it desires from Russia without any limitations using the Yuan instead of the Dollar..

gold stock volumes have been collapsing on this decline
eg
There's 15-20% short interest in many names... an example would be ANV with 20.1% of the shares shorted and that percentage probably grew since last week.
china shanghai opens today after being closed last week
even though this is the indian festival buying season, i think it could very well be muted due to the bankster attacks

si amigo and "so far" it looks good but I need to stress that IMO there are NO EXCUSES here and I mean NONE as I currently see the wave count. Prices are either embarking on a rally to at least the 1450 area or if they undego a decline below 1300 the gates open wide IMO for a rapid descent to 1179 and maybe much lower, so I am bullish against 1300 but really do not want to see a decline below 1310, I think she goes norte but we will know very soon IMO

BSing away

Senor

did buy some NUGt with tight stops, will likely exit very fast on any modest decline from here, will only hold position if we have a good strong close.

Senor

possible 5 up in XAU and HUI, still long NUGT and using HUI 221.50 as my exit level, if bullish this mining stock pullback needs to end very soon and turn strongly higher, muy importante trading here

Senor

[senorBS]

not highly confident but I thought the new rally high in gold early on may have completed 5 up from 1276, if correct this should be a near term correction that ends aroung 1300, that of course is "if" the five up count is correct, we see

Senor

that is how i am counting it and this is a wave 2. and the fibs so far seem to support that . silver should take over the lead. i read over the weekend, the platinum miners in SA are going to strike.
here is the gann guys presentation on gold/silver http://www.ganngloba...cfac263e84696b3

dharma

some thoughts
Sprott Resources has teamed up with the largest Chinese Gold miner, Zijin Mining, to form a global mining fund with an initial target of $500 Million in acquisitions. $500 Mln could easily take a few of the better advanced-stage deposits off the market.

And on Sept. 6, China announced that it's all ready to make oil trades using the Yuan rather than the U.S. dollar with any nation caring to do so... the Dollar has since fallen from 81.467 to 79.73. And on the following day, Sept. 7, China made an agreement with Russia that it can buy all the oil it desires from Russia without any limitations using the Yuan instead of the Dollar..

gold stock volumes have been collapsing on this decline
eg
There's 15-20% short interest in many names... an example would be ANV with 20.1% of the shares shorted and that percentage probably grew since last week.
china shanghai opens today after being closed last week
even though this is the indian festival buying season, i think it could very well be muted due to the bankster attacks

si amigo and "so far" it looks good but I need to stress that IMO there are NO EXCUSES here and I mean NONE as I currently see the wave count. Prices are either embarking on a rally to at least the 1450 area or if they undego a decline below 1300 the gates open wide IMO for a rapid descent to 1179 and maybe much lower, so I am bullish against 1300 but really do not want to see a decline below 1310, I think she goes norte but we will know very soon IMO

BSing away

Senor

did buy some NUGt with tight stops, will likely exit very fast on any modest decline from here, will only hold position if we have a good strong close.

Senor

exited when HUI level hit, this for me is a take stabs only environment at this time

senor

[dharma]

today is the gann guys 60yr cycle lows. today is hadiks 40 yr cycle lows when you are talking about such long cycles even w/in a month is quite amazing. now we will see the miners continue to underperform . today pvg , run by bob quartermaine took it on the chin thier findings thus far have shown an extremely high grade mine. and in spite of quartermaines tenure as former ceo ssri his credibility has come into question today! the sentiment remains lopsided w/the bears growling louder. meanwhile the country w/the worlds reserve currency , is playing chicken w/the debt. i wonder if this will have an effect on other sovereigns view of the dollar as a safe haven? having the reserve currency is a huge +. losing that would be a tragedy. goldman is saying settle the debt crises and gold is a slam dunk lower. of course goldman says one thing and does the exact opposite. gotta be cautious in here. no waves dharma

[senorBS]

today is the gann guys 60yr cycle lows. today is hadiks 40 yr cycle lows
when you are talking about such long cycles even w/in a month is quite amazing. now we will see
the miners continue to underperform . today pvg , run by bob quartermaine took it on the chin
thier findings thus far have shown an extremely high grade mine. and in spite of quartermaines tenure as former ceo ssri his credibility has come into question today!
the sentiment remains lopsided w/the bears growling louder. meanwhile the country w/the worlds reserve currency , is playing chicken w/the debt. i wonder if this will have an effect on other sovereigns view of the dollar as a safe haven? having the reserve currency is a huge +. losing that would be a tragedy. goldman is saying settle the debt crises and gold is a slam dunk lower. of course goldman says one thing and does the exact opposite.
gotta be cautious in here. no waves
dharma

didn't realize some had those grande cycles here, I sorta like the case for some indivudual stocks making marginal new lows below June lows and HUI-GDX-HUI bottoming at or above area of those June lows - basically a potential successful retest, we see

Senor

[johngeorge]

From the FWIW department I am watching the bonds. Appears to me that IF the 10 year and 30 year breech with conviction 3% and 4% respectively it would open the flood gates. Meanwhile gold has to break through and hold above 1340. HUI likewise @ 243. Will know in the fulness of time. For now I am in watchful waiting mode.

[johngeorge]

As an aside the dollar starting to look iffy here

[dharma]

hey jg both the bond and the dollar are lynchpins for gold i keep an eye on both. yesterday cnbc was touting yellen as being good for the dollar. we will see! the sentiment is quite heavy in the bearish camp. w/major economists @gs, jpm etc saying gold will tank, i can see how the bears will feed on that. from ganns perspective, we are in the window for the 60 and 40 yr cycle lows, anniversary dates are important to gann the man. 1st i would like to see gold break the down trend line, which is about 1325. then above 1350 other wise the bears hold swayThe HGNSI was unchanged yesterday at -20% and MarketVane’s BC fell 2 points today to 39% (back to its low of last week and is its lowest level since early July). so far the bears have not been able to get anything going last i checked the largest spender in the history of the white house was still residing there w/3 more years to go and the large and rising deficits is what brought me to gold in the 1st place. that trend is not going away anytime soon. all are sacred cows. the debt ceiling will be raised @some point. politicians when they can , give away the farm to be reelected so they can keep giving it away. dharma

[stubaby]

politicians when they can , give away the farm to be reelected so they can keep giving it away.
dharma

Since the July peak - lower highs and lower lows - "in" pretty clear down-trend channel and until that breaks above...more of the same!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p69258318632&a=278027323&r=7489.png

stubaby

[dougie]

"“This market could be poised to set a multi-year bottom - in synch with a test of 3-5 year support and at the culmination of a multi-year bear market - fulfilling a myriad of weekly & monthly cycles that all converge in a VERY narrow window of time! One specific week provides the ultimate ‘squaring’ of price & time, of support & cycles, of declines vs. rallies, of cycles & waves (and waves & cycles) and of bear vs. bull markets. From a textbook technical & cyclical perspective, it is the ideal setup for a Major bottom!" Hadik What market might that be?

[dharma]

all i can say that is positive right now in the gold market is the 1179 lows are still in tact. gold is either continuing to base here, or is headed to break the 1178 lows. there was a very large order placed this morning which took the wind out of the gold market and put it on the defensive. it seems the way to get rid of the myriad of problems is hit the gold market HGNSI fell 6.7 points yesterday to -26.7% / MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell a point today to 38% (the lowest level since 38% was last hit on July 10th when Gold was at $1250) so from a contrarian perspective being a bull is against the crowd. if we can rally from somewhere around these levels it will set up a bull trap.,having taken out the 2 previous lows. dharma i think hadik is referring to the broad market there. he is expecting a rally into november his date was the 9th for gold and now i just received this , this minute , he looks for a decline into late october-30th he sends me stuff quite frequently. i am not a subscriber. he has been spot on!

Edited by dharma, 11 October 2013 - 11:56 AM.