112 replies to this topic

[dharma]

as i said , i expect the bears to continue to short this market up to the 1924 hgihs in 11. the psychology is ripe. and yet the backdrop has changed. commodities as a whole are bottoming and heading up. that is a key. of course the dollar will be defended. alot of ammunition will be used in so doing. it is the best of the fiats. stu-thanks for your thoughts, they are always appreciated. yes, when this wave 1 completes we will see the teeth of the bears, w/a large correction. but 1st we go higher. the gann guys perspective is why i watch his presentations. if the 60 yr cycle has bottomed then this leg can last for a while. hadik watches the 40yr cycle and he thinks that has bottomed- late december. folks stay away from the leverage. it is tempting. but the volatility is going to be huge. dharma many of these miners will provide big gains w/the resumption of the bull, no need to get too greedy. nak has always intrigued me. the environmental issues are huge. i have no position there. watching it though

Edited by dharma, 03 March 2014 - 11:55 AM.

[johngeorge]

dharma

Thanks as always for your insightful commentary. Regards silver, my thoughts echo yours. I think for the time being silver is being reluctantly dragged higher by gold and will continue in that vein until it breaks out in its own bull market. My reasoning is copper has recently been falling in price and silver is more so an industrial metal than a monetary one. When silver does move on its own it will be something to behold!

Now that commodities in general are moving higher.....for those interested in the price of pork chops take a look at lean hog prices. The Russian/Crimea issue appears to be a positive for gold now and I believe is substantially responsible for the rapid rise in oil prices of late. My weekly gold chart had a buy signal on Jan 20th which was confirmed Feb 10th. Support is @ 1293. For upside resistance I use monthly charts that show first level @ 1361 with long term resistance @ 1503 at which I would consider a full resumption of the bull. I am looking at a few producing small miners, mostly in Canada, to add to my portfolio, but, not at this time. Waiting for a pull back which I think could take place in the middle of this month around the 22nd which is a Bradley minor turn date.

Yes I too have been watching NAK and have been doing so for a number of years. It is a very intriguing situation. No...never bought any.

Best to you

[dharma]

my change to a more bullish stance is the backdrop. commodities are turning bullish. starbucks did not change the price of its coffee, the whole time of coffees bear market. what will they do now that the price has almost doubled since the lows. well coffee may not be in the cpi , but it is bought daily by millions who start their day w/a cup of joe. the same w/the food stuffs , oil, and ng. it will continue to be consumed. the question is @ what price. and that is the case w/gold. in the east gold is made into jewelry and in india the women are adorned w/it. one way or another india will come back on stream. right now modi is the front runner and he is backed by the indian jewelry industry. yes , the charts of the pms look better, but it is the whole backdrop and environment in which this is occurring. yesterday, we tried to break into the next price cycle 1358, we couldnt do it. the market is now backing off , this is normal action. of course if you got all bulled up and bought in the 1350s you are in a quandry here. in this market @ this time buying is when we are oversold or in meaningful support. otherwise you are asking to be put in an uncomfortable position. yes the wheeler war cycle is gaining traction in 14. the bulls got all bulled up over syria, gold rallied for a day or 2 then the reality hit and it was lower than before the beating drums got loud. the key here is the commodity backdrop has changed. next and its a ways away is the velocity of money. i look to #3 japan to start to make money velocity accelerate. they have been in deflation for decades. abe and kuroda have promised to do something about that. lets see if they can deliver. and create and export cost push inflation. dharma

[dougie]

i look to #3 japan to start to make money velocity accelerate how?

[dharma]

i look to #3 japan to start to make money velocity accelerate

how?

that is the question isnt it.
so far abe and kuroda have instituted aggressive monetary policies, but it has kept japan in deflation mode. they have encouraged investment in stocks , by making profits a non taxable event. the japanese have been traditionally a holder of bonds. it remains to be seen what policies etc they institute to get inflation started
but it is their mandate
dharma

[stubaby]

i look to #3 japan to start to make money velocity accelerate

how?

that is the question isnt it.
so far abe and kuroda have instituted aggressive monetary policies, but it has kept japan in deflation mode. they have encouraged investment in stocks , by making profits a non taxable event. the japanese have been traditionally a holder of bonds. it remains to be seen what policies etc they institute to get inflation started
but it is their mandate
dharma

Japanese reflation efforts through weakening it’s currency has the consequences of creating commodity inflation. As an importer of commodities, especially energy, this becomes a “two-edged sword” (no pun intended).

In order to make this work—the Japanese will have to re-commission their nuclear reactors and reduce their imports of oil and especially LNG.

[dougie]

any movement out of bonds and they are doomed

[senorBS]

yesterday's high at 21.72 in silver looked like a B wave, if correct wave "c" down needs to decline below 20.99 and the hourly charts from that 20.72 high "currently" suggests one more leg down could complete 5 down and wave "c" from 21.72. as always DYODD and all that BSing away Senor

Edited by senorBS, 04 March 2014 - 01:16 PM.

[andiron]

it is time to trim position in GOLD...I would like to see gold eventually beyonds 5000 and more..but for now techincals suggest sell off...while I am not short i can easily see 50-70 point sell off from here... cheers....

[senorBS]

a little while back I mentioned Plat and Palladium and that I was bullish and I bot SPPP (near 8.92), Palladium looks to be registering a big time breakout and Plat appears right behind, SPPP is at 9.50, gotta believe silver will eventually "seriously" join the party. I view this as more overall bullish evidence for the "metals complex". BSing away Senor