178 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

thanks
so is your main reason for seeing this as an ABC that you think we had a clear 5 wave up?

si, that is one reason, the second is that gold and HUI/XAU look like 5 down (maybe one more new low) AT THIS TIME, that can be wave 1 or A. Was it a clear/totally clean 5 up? no, but I think it is best counted that way. Corrections can also become very convoluted, we could also trace out a double zigzag which is what silver (which counts somewhat differently) could do while gold does a simple ABC. Day by day for me, with what looks like 5 down I am now much more cautious and much less long.

BSing away


Senor

[Russ]

Why gold went down... http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/9751

He thinks this is just some slowing momentum but still thinks gold is in a new bull market.

My own work is still showing gold and silver should go up into the summer, 2015 could still see more lows though, I have a confirmed signal on Barrick Gold for a big low late summer/early fall of 2015 which means this rally is corrective in a bigger bear which is what Armstrong has been insisting.

russ, for me swanson is a smooth talker , that is trying to make a buck. dont let the country accent fool you. he is selling himself
your work interests me . armstrong talks out of both sides of his mouth. yes, he says that he also makes the 1180s low work as the actual low. he will be correct no matter what the market does. i do think the lows are in and will not be violated. 2015 is light years from here. there are lots of things that could happen. crimea was a surprise. tapering, @this stage was not . in the end the pile of debt grows. folks who are alive , pay more for everything today, than they did yesterday. resources have entered a bull. in 75-76 gold had a 50% haircut and so did most other commodities . it is the nature of the beast.i keep 1033 in the back of my mind, it is there though. i suspect we may chop in here.
dharma

Dharma,

Don't like good ol' Mike? One of his videos was in a rocking chair on his log cabin porch, looked like he was getting ready for the collapse of western civilization on his homestead. I realize he is running an investment advice business though.

Yes Armstrong has waffled on gold a bit in recent months (I remember the collective groan on this board over what he wrote), but he has been very right about gold overall since the peak in 2011, but another guy running a business too, you won't see him talk about how in the early 1990's he was predicting that Europe and Russia would be the largest economy in the world into the far future, now he says China will rule for 224 years. James Dines in the late 1970's said the 21 century would belong to China.

At this point the Barrick signal for a low in fall 2015 is looking quite certain, it could be violated eventually and if that happens I will inform the board but at this point it looks strong, what it is showing is that each time it rallies it is doing so with less momentum..

Russ

[goldfungus]

Why gold went down... http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/9751

He thinks this is just some slowing momentum but still thinks gold is in a new bull market.

My own work is still showing gold and silver should go up into the summer, 2015 could still see more lows though, I have a confirmed signal on Barrick Gold for a big low late summer/early fall of 2015 which means this rally is corrective in a bigger bear which is what Armstrong has been insisting.

russ, for me swanson is a smooth talker , that is trying to make a buck. dont let the country accent fool you. he is selling himself
your work interests me . armstrong talks out of both sides of his mouth. yes, he says that he also makes the 1180s low work as the actual low. he will be correct no matter what the market does. i do think the lows are in and will not be violated. 2015 is light years from here. there are lots of things that could happen. crimea was a surprise. tapering, @this stage was not . in the end the pile of debt grows. folks who are alive , pay more for everything today, than they did yesterday. resources have entered a bull. in 75-76 gold had a 50% haircut and so did most other commodities . it is the nature of the beast.i keep 1033 in the back of my mind, it is there though. i suspect we may chop in here.
dharma

Dharma,

Don't like good ol' Mike? One of his videos was in a rocking chair on his log cabin porch, looked like he was getting ready for the collapse of western civilization on his homestead. I realize he is running an investment advice business though.

Yes Armstrong has waffled on gold a bit in recent months (I remember the collective groan on this board over what he wrote), but he has been very right about gold overall since the peak in 2011, but another guy running a business too, you won't see him talk about how in the early 1990's he was predicting that Europe and Russia would be the largest economy in the world into the far future, now he says China will rule for 224 years. James Dines in the late 1970's said the 21 century would belong to China.

At this point the Barrick signal for a low in fall 2015 is looking quite certain, it could be violated eventually and if that happens I will inform the board but at this point it looks strong, what it is showing is that each time it rallies it is doing so with less momentum..

Russ

Are you basing your gold call on just Barrick? It is the worst run major in the world. If you looked at GG or AEM it might be telling a different story. bwtfdik

[dharma]

Why gold went down... http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/9751

He thinks this is just some slowing momentum but still thinks gold is in a new bull market.

My own work is still showing gold and silver should go up into the summer, 2015 could still see more lows though, I have a confirmed signal on Barrick Gold for a big low late summer/early fall of 2015 which means this rally is corrective in a bigger bear which is what Armstrong has been insisting.

russ, for me swanson is a smooth talker , that is trying to make a buck. dont let the country accent fool you. he is selling himself
your work interests me . armstrong talks out of both sides of his mouth. yes, he says that he also makes the 1180s low work as the actual low. he will be correct no matter what the market does. i do think the lows are in and will not be violated. 2015 is light years from here. there are lots of things that could happen. crimea was a surprise. tapering, @this stage was not . in the end the pile of debt grows. folks who are alive , pay more for everything today, than they did yesterday. resources have entered a bull. in 75-76 gold had a 50% haircut and so did most other commodities . it is the nature of the beast.i keep 1033 in the back of my mind, it is there though. i suspect we may
chop in here.


my thought exactly. not only that they answer to the banksters. hedging in a bull cost them and their shareholders billions
marty yesterday:
So far, gold has been unable to get through the first primary resistance 1390-1400 barrier. We pressed higher into this week making the high but then turned back down. Now the two levels forming are 1323 and 1425. A weekly closing back below 1308.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Major monthly resistance stands at 1555-1565 followed by 1617 for the next three months whereas support lies at 1315. a monthly closing below this area will signal new lows ahead. Only a monthly closing above 1617 will signal a breakout to the upside.
dharma

there is a certain amount of intuition that goes into trading markets. one develops their tools and that gives a feel for the market. the double bottom in gold and silver , give a strong indication that the lows are in. the market has to prove that by getting above 1434 for gold. the jury is out, but my inclination is base my thinking on that. until it is proven otherwise. it appears the sector has also had a 5 wave up move. subjective no doubt. welcome to the world of being a speculator. gann tools i use support this position as well

Dharma,

Don't like good ol' Mike? One of his videos was in a rocking chair on his log cabin porch, looked like he was getting ready for the collapse of western civilization on his homestead. I realize he is running an investment advice business though.

Yes Armstrong has waffled on gold a bit in recent months (I remember the collective groan on this board over what he wrote), but he has been very right about gold overall since the peak in 2011, but another guy running a business too, you won't see him talk about how in the early 1990's he was predicting that Europe and Russia would be the largest economy in the world into the far future, now he says China will rule for 224 years. James Dines in the late 1970's said the 21 century would belong to China.

At this point the Barrick signal for a low in fall 2015 is looking quite certain, it could be violated eventually and if that happens I will inform the board but at this point it looks strong, what it is showing is that each time it rallies it is doing so with less momentum..

Russ

Are you basing your gold call on just Barrick? It is the worst run major in the world. If you looked at GG or AEM it might be telling a different story. bwtfdik

[dharma]

Why gold went down... http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/9751

He thinks this is just some slowing momentum but still thinks gold is in a new bull market.

My own work is still showing gold and silver should go up into the summer, 2015 could still see more lows though, I have a confirmed signal on Barrick Gold for a big low late summer/early fall of 2015 which means this rally is corrective in a bigger bear which is what Armstrong has been insisting.

russ, for me swanson is a smooth talker , that is trying to make a buck. dont let the country accent fool you. he is selling himself
your work interests me . armstrong talks out of both sides of his mouth. yes, he says that he also makes the 1180s low work as the actual low. he will be correct no matter what the market does. i do think the lows are in and will not be violated. 2015 is light years from here. there are lots of things that could happen. crimea was a surprise. tapering, @this stage was not . in the end the pile of debt grows. folks who are alive , pay more for everything today, than they did yesterday. resources have entered a bull. in 75-76 gold had a 50% haircut and so did most other commodities . it is the nature of the beast.i keep 1033 in the back of my mind, it is there though. i suspect we may
chop in here.


my thought exactly. not only that they answer to the banksters. hedging in a bull cost them and their shareholders billions
marty yesterday:
So far, gold has been unable to get through the first primary resistance 1390-1400 barrier. We pressed higher into this week making the high but then turned back down. Now the two levels forming are 1323 and 1425. A weekly closing back below 1308.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Major monthly resistance stands at 1555-1565 followed by 1617 for the next three months whereas support lies at 1315. a monthly closing below this area will signal new lows ahead. Only a monthly closing above 1617 will signal a breakout to the upside.
dharma

there is a certain amount of intuition that goes into trading markets. one develops their tools and that gives a feel for the market. the double bottom in gold and silver , give a strong indication that the lows are in. the market has to prove that by getting above 1434 for gold. the jury is out, but my inclination is base my thinking on that. until it is proven otherwise. it appears the sector has also had a 5 wave up move. subjective no doubt. welcome to the world of being a speculator. gann tools i use support this position as well

Dharma,

Don't like good ol' Mike? One of his videos was in a rocking chair on his log cabin porch, looked like he was getting ready for the collapse of western civilization on his homestead. I realize he is running an investment advice business though.

Yes Armstrong has waffled on gold a bit in recent months (I remember the collective groan on this board over what he wrote), but he has been very right about gold overall since the peak in 2011, but another guy running a business too, you won't see him talk about how in the early 1990's he was predicting that Europe and Russia would be the largest economy in the world into the far future, now he says China will rule for 224 years. James Dines in the late 1970's said the 21 century would belong to China.

At this point the Barrick signal for a low in fall 2015 is looking quite certain, it could be violated eventually and if that happens I will inform the board but at this point it looks strong, what it is showing is that each time it rallies it is doing so with less momentum..

Russ

Are you basing your gold call on just Barrick? It is the worst run major in the world. If you looked at GG or AEM it might be telling a different story. bwtfdik

my thought exactly. not only that they answer to the banksters. hedging in a bull cost them and their shareholders billions
marty yesterday:
So far, gold has been unable to get through the first primary resistance 1390-1400 barrier. We pressed higher into this week making the high but then turned back down. Now the two levels forming are 1323 and 1425. A weekly closing back below 1308.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Major monthly resistance stands at 1555-1565 followed by 1617 for the next three months whereas support lies at 1315. a monthly closing below this area will signal new lows ahead. Only a monthly closing above 1617 will signal a breakout to the upside.
dharma

there is a certain amount of intuition that goes into trading markets. one develops their tools and that gives a feel for the market. the double bottom in gold and silver , give a strong indication that the lows are in. the market has to prove that by getting above 1434 for gold. the jury is out, but my inclination is base my thinking on that. until it is proven otherwise. it appears the sector has also had a 5 wave up move. subjective no doubt. welcome to the world of being a speculator. gann tools i use support this position as well

Edited by dharma, 20 March 2014 - 01:43 PM.

[senorBS]

exited ALL longs today, including core longs, been a great year so far and with what I view as 5 down off the highs in gold and HUI/GDX/XAU I am turning into a trader only for now, took a small loss the past few days on SLV and a few small miner stock/ETF positions I purchased. I'd rather just kick back here and see what develops, do note that while I still think we soon see a more significant bounce I'd rather be careful here. as always DYODD Senor

[Russ]

Are you basing your gold call on just Barrick? It is the worst run major in the world. If you looked at GG or AEM it might be telling a different story. bwtfdik

The gold bugs index people must think barrick is ok since it is the second largest component of the index, but I take heed to you and Dharma's info on it. Barrick is not the only thing leading me to think 2015 will be the final low for gold, but as a technician Barrick's formation on my indicator is very strong and it also looks like it will bottom right on Armstrong's pi cycle model in Oct. 2015 which is a doozy as that is the main pi cycle wave peak and as he has noted Gold tends to go up when the pi cycle model is on the down swing, leading him to believe that between late 2015 and 2020 gold will go to at least 5000 dollars. It is very significant that Barrick's chart is projecting a major low right on the main pi cylcle peak, that is like neon lights flashing.

Gold Bugs Index Components

Goldcorp Inc GG 16.20%
Barrick Gold ABX 15.37%
Newmont Mining NEM 10.88%
Harmony Gold Mining Adr HMY 5.21%
Coeur d'alene Mines CDE 5.11%
Yamana Gold AUY 5.00%
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd Ads AU 4.88%
Gold Fields Ltd Adr GFI 4.80%
Randgold Resources Ads GOLD 4.71%
Iamgoldcorp IAG 4.43%
Eldorado Gold Corp EGO 4.34%
Hecla Mining HL 4.14%
Comp de Minas Buenaventura Ads BVN 4.08%
New Gold Inc NGD 3.90%
Kinross Gold KGC 3.85%
Agnico Eagle Mines AEM 3.11%

[goldfungus]

Are you basing your gold call on just Barrick? It is the worst run major in the world. If you looked at GG or AEM it might be telling a different story. bwtfdik

The gold bugs index people must think barrick is ok since it is the second largest component of the index, but I take heed to you and Dharma's info on it. Barrick is not the only thing leading me to think 2015 will be the final low for gold, but as a technician Barrick's formation on my indicator is very strong and it also looks like it will bottom right on Armstrong's pi cycle model in Oct. 2015 which is a doozy as that is the main pi cycle wave peak and as he has noted Gold tends to go up when the pi cycle model is on the down swing, leading him to believe that between late 2015 and 2020 gold will go to at least 5000 dollars. It is very significant that Barrick's chart is projecting a major low right on the main pi cylcle peak, that is like neon lights flashing.

Gold Bugs Index Components

Goldcorp Inc GG 16.20%
Barrick Gold ABX 15.37%
Newmont Mining NEM 10.88%
Harmony Gold Mining Adr HMY 5.21%
Coeur d'alene Mines CDE 5.11%
Yamana Gold AUY 5.00%
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd Ads AU 4.88%
Gold Fields Ltd Adr GFI 4.80%
Randgold Resources Ads GOLD 4.71%
Iamgoldcorp IAG 4.43%
Eldorado Gold Corp EGO 4.34%
Hecla Mining HL 4.14%
Comp de Minas Buenaventura Ads BVN 4.08%
New Gold Inc NGD 3.90%
Kinross Gold KGC 3.85%
Agnico Eagle Mines AEM 3.11%

Thanks for the big picture projection. Out of that list I would only own GG,AEM and NGD. FWIW Ultimately the price of gold is going to call the shots.

[Russ]

Just did a google search and came up with this about MA's pi cycle...

http://planetforecas...g-215-year.html

In summary, each 2.15-year cycle tracks:

3 1/2 orbits of Venus
8/7 orbits of Mars
2/11 orbits of Jupiter

We have already seen that Venus, Mars and Jupiter are all important movers of the stock market.

On a much larger scale, there are 1000 2.15-year cycles in an astrological age (2,150 years), and 12,000 cycles in the precession of the equinox (~25,800 years).


Chat from the site above from site owner Platy...

"there is a good chance to see a reversal on March 25 (+/- 1 day), and another on March 30-31 (+/- 1 day). Unfortunately I cannot tell you in advance whether these dates will give highs or lows.


Van Anh nguyenMarch 17, 2014 at 6:47 AM

Tks Platy. Today, Gold reaches top 1392.Will watch to see on 25 and March. Keep update your work on April and so on. "

Edited by Russ, 20 March 2014 - 03:57 PM.

[Russ]

This from Eric Hadik is roughly in agreement with the astro above... "After Gold reached a convergence of key upside targets - above 1380.0/GCJ - it was also projected to see a significant decline (before a new advance - up to 1425.0/GC - is expected, beginning in April; specifics for this are already taking form) …