76 replies to this topic

[Russ]

bearish read:
http://scharts.co/1sUepLh

That may be a short term bearish read on gold stocks and gold but the apex of that dust wedge is in early 2015, wedges usually break out much closer to the apex, my oscillator is pointing to a major low in dust this coming Oct, after that dust could break out of it bull flag going into mid 2015.

[dharma]

in spite of gold having a big drop , the miners are holding tough. dharma

[Russ]

in spite of gold having a big drop , the miners are holding tough.
dharma

Yes it is since the stocks have been the leader of the metal. Have to give Avi Gilburt credit on this move though - http://seekingalpha....l-whipsaw-ahead http://seekingalpha....ed?v=1405366905 - he did warn of a whip saw coming, he thinks new lows are coming in august but would change his view if gld could get above 140, whereas MA says gold would have to go above 1550 (about 150 gld) to turn bullish. I have many charts showing the trends for gold and gold stocks to go up into Oct, I doubt these trends will be wrong but I also have to respect a guy like Avi although he has been wrong before too.


R

[Russ]

Erik Hadik.... "Gold & Silver completed their initial ‘mission’ on July 11th and were expected to sell off quickly. IF Silver can test 20.360--20.495/SIU on July 14--18th - as described the past two weeks - it would help pinpoint where and when a final pullback low is most likely. Gold has already identified its corresponding objective and is honing the ideal time for a secondary bottom. And if these new buy signals are triggered - as is currently expected - it could help catapult prices up to their 2014 upside objectives… at MUCH higher levels."

[gannman]

thnaks for that russ very helpful

[tria]

i see this as probably completing the A of an abc correction. if correct we should rally for a couple of days before going into the c wave down. i agree with dharma that we probably correct this week and work off the overbought on the stocks here they have been going straight up. and yes it was a 5 wave move form june 3 to the top here last thursday. just 1 of 3 this is 2 of 3 all fwiw its as clear as mud

We are in tune on this one G-Man,
The 'a' either ended yesterday or will end early today.
Then comes the 'b' up and could conclude by Friday or by mid next week and then the 'c' which could take us to the last week of July or to very early August. Then we fly but not go vertical IMO.

-tria

[dougie]

Thanks Russ; i tend to agree!

bearish read:
http://scharts.co/1sUepLh

That may be a short term bearish read on gold stocks and gold but the apex of that dust wedge is in early 2015, wedges usually break out much closer to the apex, my oscillator is pointing to a major low in dust this coming Oct, after that dust could break out of it bull flag going into mid 2015.

[gannman]

tria that seasonal chart u posted was very helpful. i mean it is saying august is historically a great month for gold and the e wave sure seems to coincide with that pattern. i am not very familiar with seasonals but one more tool to fit into the tool bag. thanks much

[dharma]

seasonals for commodities are essential. i do think the correction ends next week. we are working off an overbought situation. the banksters have the etf when they need physical. it is a tool in their bag of tricks "As much as 40 per cent of all gold flows in the world happen through Dubai and the city is easily the most important hub for the trade. Dubai has the infrastructure and the systems to set benchmarks, and even its own good delivery standards. It is now time for it to start asserting its role and demand recognition for its contributions to the trade. With such major changes happening in every sphere of business, the current age belongs to performers and not consultants, who have had their share of fame but are now ready to be consigned to the dustbins of history. If managing global gold trade is anybody's business, it is most obviously that of the producers, consumers or those who make trade happen. Any other role is secondary." - GulfNews.Com, July 15, 2014. it seems obvious to me dubai, china , india, the far east will be the leaders for gold i do think the next leg will be substantial. the public will not be aroused until new highs occur. i am in wait mode. yesterday hit one fib i am looking to the next one to start a campaign on the buy side dharma

[tria]

I suggest that we saw the bottom of the wave 'a' yesteday and probably the low for this week. Now in a 'b' upwave and me being a trader as well as an investor I will lighten up on the trading longs on completion of this potential 'b' upwave later this week or by next Monday, so as to buy back probably during the last week of July when I expect the 'c' wave to bottom. In any case, most of the August month should be plain vanila Aegean sailing with the meltemi wind blowing Gold to a NorthEastern direction in the chart by month’s end. -tria