30 replies to this topic

[arbman]

I think it will be one more down move to conclude sometime next week and then a strong up until early August and then it is anyone's guess. Downside is probably around SPX 1940s, then retest of the highs probably, then LOB for the rest of August... Can the market abort any retracements or secondary highs and sell off asap? Yes, but so far this has not been the pattern, even during 2010 flash crash. I would not bet on the upside or downside aggressively either way. To me, this looks more like a consolidation than an initiation yet... This is the most bullish post you will get from me, Dev!

[OEXCHAOS]

My shorts remain on, but I'm looking to cover them. Soon. Bullish Pct. barely budged. Cumulative A/D volume still positive. If we get some deterioration there then I'm a Bear. Not until. I will buy tomorrow morning for a quick trade and see what happens the rest of the day. M

[Mr Dev]

Mark refreshing to hear your views and technical reasons on what you're watching .

[Mr Dev]

sorry for the clutter on the right side of the BPSPX chart but there is a lot happening right now.

the BPSPX Chart gave us a BUY signal May 2nd until it turned to a Sell Signal June 24th-25th (sorry for not zooming in)

that was followed by the next BUY SIGNAL JULY 2nd..(last week) which resulted in a divergence top to the JUNE Sell Signal High.

This week .. the chart has generated another SELL SIGNAL ALONG with the July 7th Divergence High.


enjoy

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 July 2014 - 06:51 PM.

[Mr Dev]

i agree with M, that it barely budged...but thats because...we didnt close near the lows.
the turns are not always big moves going either way sometimes they are very subtle but just keep going.


here is a much longer POV, but from this far back the signals are somewhat hard to see when they are NEW.

what makes the chart's SELL SIGNAL so important at this time is... the addition of the MoMo indicator, and its position at the Extremely Bearish Zone.

so ck out the chart above one more time.


enjoy

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 July 2014 - 07:16 PM.

[arbman]

After my initial break out announcement with a price target around SPX 1970-1980, this was my projection for a high around early July, and a low date was indicated around July 10-14 in both projections at these links, a few months ago! There were two important support levels in these projections, SPX 1890-1900 and 1940-1950. I am currently thinking 1940-1950 support zone will hold as the break out neck line (in the second chart) and we will see another move up and then really begin topping and declining etc...

Dev, there is indeed notable deterioration in this market, but I think it is liquid enough to push higher one last time to an August high...

Edited by arbman, 10 July 2014 - 08:19 PM.

[TTrader47]

i agree with M, that it barely budged...but thats because...we didnt close near the lows.
the turns are not always big moves going either way sometimes they are very subtle but just keep going.


here is a much longer POV, but from this far back the signals are somewhat hard to see when they are NEW.

what makes the chart's SELL SIGNAL so important at this time is... the addition of the MoMo indicator, and its position at the Extremely Bearish Zone.

so ck out the chart above one more time.


enjoy

I appreciate your work. Wouldn't April 7th have produced a buy signal though? Thanks in advance.

[Mr Dev]

thanks arb i wish liquidity was something i could measure with a high degree of confidence. i can only look at what the FEDs are doing, and check the trend of money flow conditions to see whether they are oversold /overbought or diverging thru cmf.

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 July 2014 - 09:33 PM.

[NAV]

The only thing that matters in this business are your trades and how much money you make out of it. And when we are talking about trades, there are only 3 things that matter - Entry, Exit and Stop. Folks type in tons of words on this board and somehow they run out of time when it comes to posting 3 numbers - entry, exit and stop. These 3 numbers are the only way we can track the soundness of any methodology or one's track record, as we are dealing with some unknown folks on the web. All this pissing contests, name calling and competitive chest beating does no trader any good. Possessing great technical knowledge makes you a professor in this field. WE DON'T GET PAID FOR OUR KNOWLEDGE. Analysing and determining the health of the market is fine, which serves as a broad context. BUT THE DOCTORS DIAGNOSING THE HEALTH OF MARKETS DON'T GET PAID EITHER. Despite making the best calls and analysing the markets in the best manner, one can lose his account. Been there, done that, learned it the hard way and moved on. It's your precise entry, exits, proper stops and sound risk management that eventually makes you money. If anyone on this board wants to make a point, here's a suggestion - post a trade in real-time and make money. You don't need to write one thing. Your detractors will shut their mouths and watch you in awe. The best revenge is living well. I know what would be the question thrown at me. "Why don't you post your trades?". I have probably posted a few hundreds real-time calls on this board with entry, exits and stops and did that for a few years. That was not fun either. There was a thread started on Silicon investor in my name, just to abuse me - pure unadulterated abuse ! Although the whole experience was net negative, i came out as a confident trader. Believe me it's more difficult to post your trades on the web than to trade it privately. Anyway, it's no more in my interest to participate in message board debates or post trades here, as i have an active money management business. I just pop in once a while to check what's happening. Good stuff stimulates me and i have respect for those posters. Reading bad stuff is a great reminder for me what not to do. Good luck !

[PrincelyM]

The only thing that matters in this business are your trades and how much money you make out of it. And when we are talking about trades, there are only 3 things that matter - Entry, Exit and Stop. Folks type in tons of words on this board and somehow they run out of time when it comes to posting 3 numbers - entry, exit and stop. These 3 numbers are the only way we can track the soundness of any methodology or one's track record, as we are dealing with some unknown folks on the web. All this pissing contests, name calling and competitive chest beating does no trader any good. Possessing great technical knowledge makes you a professor in this field. WE DON'T GET PAID FOR OUR KNOWLEDGE. Analysing and determining the health of the market is fine, which serves as a broad context. BUT THE DOCTORS DIAGNOSING THE HEALTH OF MARKETS DON'T GET PAID EITHER. Despite making the best calls and analysing the markets in the best manner, one can lose his account. Been there, done that, learned it the hard way and moved on. It's your precise entry, exits, proper stops and sound risk management that eventually makes you money.

If anyone on this board wants to make a point, here's a suggestion - post a trade in real-time and make money. You don't need to write one thing. Your detractors will shut their mouths and watch you in awe. The best revenge is living well.

I know what would be the question thrown at me. "Why don't you post your trades?". I have probably posted a few hundreds real-time calls on this board with entry, exits and stops and did that for a few years. That was not fun either. There was a thread started on Silicon investor in my name, just to abuse me - pure unadulterated abuse ! Although the whole experience was net negative, i came out as a confident trader. Believe me it's more difficult to post your trades on the web than to trade it privately. Anyway, it's no more in my interest to participate in message board debates or post trades here, as i have an active money management business. I just pop in once a while to check what's happening. Good stuff stimulates me and i have respect for those posters. Reading bad stuff is a great reminder for me what not to do. Good luck !

Well said NAV.