30 replies to this topic

[risk_management]

NAV, did both of your 30 min and 60 min price following systems turn to sell? Or maybe just 30 min one? TIA

Edited by risk_management, 10 July 2014 - 11:02 PM.

[Mr Dev]

[Mr Dev]

very astute ...yes twice in April (7 & 21ish) were 2 Fakeout Buy Signals ..so NOT all of our charts can resist showing us the momentum reflected by those powerful short covering rallies at the time .

however 2 points of resistance are always important because they give us a nice defining downtrend/resistance line to watch all the way down to a bottom to what i call a classic Vv bottom formation.

the crossover+break above the down trend line .. is the first entry signal followed by the horizontal line break of the Vv formation gave us a powerful rally signal around the May 6th (no surprise Flash Anniversary Day on Cnbc)

since then the markets have made their advance.

I appreciate your work. Wouldn't April 7th have produced a buy signal though? Thanks in advance.

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 July 2014 - 11:34 PM.

[NAV]

NAV, did both of your 30 min and 60 min price following systems turn to sell? Or maybe just 30 min one? TIA

Both are not on a sell yet. Only trailing stops on the longs have been triggerred. Below SPX 1951 they go to a sell. Above that it's a buy the dip zone.

Edited by NAV, 10 July 2014 - 11:27 PM.

[Mr Dev]

so does anyone else have any charts they would like to share ..look at ..or compare ?

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 July 2014 - 11:35 PM.

[Mr Dev]

heres the MoMo update for everyone following it. today it has just re-enter the Extreme Bearish Zone. so far this year.. it has entered this zone twice before. those times were the last week of January..and the last week in March. for a reference point one could look up to the namo chart and see the reaction starting the last week in each of those 2 months. so it has reach the zone where a warning is justified. now we will see how the next two weeks play out from here. trade safe my friends

Edited by Mr Dev, 10 July 2014 - 11:47 PM.

[NAV]

NAV, did both of your 30 min and 60 min price following systems turn to sell? Or maybe just 30 min one? TIA

Both are not on a sell yet. Only trailing stops on the longs have been triggerred. Below SPX 1951 they go to a sell. Above that it's a buy the dip zone.

BTW yesterday was a gap against the hourly trend. I have said this many times before. When the market gaps against the hourly trend the first 30-min candle low will hold. Astute trend traders know that. They place their stops below that candle, instead of panicking at the open. The dip buyers who buy the candle close get an entry with an extremely small stop. Only in a trend changing event that lows get violated. I have seen 70% of the time that lows hold. I learn't that lesson on the day of London subway bombing, when the S&P futures gapped down something like 30-40 points. If one had placed the stop at the first 30-min candle low and waited until the close, you could have exited near break-even. If you are a bull, you better pray that lows hold. If you are a bear, there's a honey pot of stops underneath it to be triggered.

Edited by NAV, 11 July 2014 - 12:11 AM.

[arbman]

This board is called 'fearless forecasters', anyone can type whatever s/he wants voluntarily in their own time and state what they see...

I do volatility arbitrage and the concept is about keeping my losses small outside of 95% confidence interval of my forecasts within a time frame.

[diogenes227]

NAV, did both of your 30 min and 60 min price following systems turn to sell? Or maybe just 30 min one? TIA

Both are not on a sell yet. Only trailing stops on the longs have been triggerred. Below SPX 1951 they go to a sell. Above that it's a buy the dip zone.

BTW yesterday was a gap against the hourly trend. I have said this many times before. When the market gaps against the hourly trend the first 30-min candle low will hold. Astute trend traders know that. They place their stops below that candle, instead of panicking at the open. The dip buyers who buy the candle close get an entry with an extremely small stop. Only in a trend changing event that lows get violated. I have seen 70% of the time that lows hold. I learn't that lesson on the day of London subway bombing, when the S&P futures gapped down something like 30-40 points. If one had placed the stop at the first 30-min candle low and waited until the close, you could have exited near break-even. If you are a bull, you better pray that lows hold. If you are a bear, there's a honey pot of stops underneath it to be triggered.

Yes, I remember this discussion well. It's indelible, actually. In fact, it made me a fair amount of money today when I took one of my buy signals on the open at just the moment when everything looked like the proverbial falling knife except for reassurance that the 60-minute trend yesterday was up.

London bombing...today it was apparently piddly Portugal.

Thanks.

Good luck and good trading.

[NAV]

This board is called 'fearless forecasters', anyone can type whatever s/he wants voluntarily in their own time and state what they see...


I do volatility arbitrage and the concept is about keeping my losses small outside of 95% confidence interval of my forecasts within a time frame.

I was referring to those constantly involved in food fights and trying to prove a point. You are not one of them. So it should not apply to you. Yes, it's a fearless forecasters board and anyone can post anything they wish. I do fully understand that you do derivative spreads and arbitrage, which cannot be posted on a message board.